The Hill’s 12:30 Report — Revised economic numbers raise recession questions

by Cate Martel - 08/25/22 12:34 PM ET

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–> A midday take on what’s happening in politics and how to have a sense of humor about it.*

*Ha. Haha. Hahah. Sniff. Haha. Sniff. Ha–breaks down crying hysterically.

NEWS THIS MORNING

OK, we’ll take it!:

The U.S. economy didn’t shrink as much between April and June as the federal government had first calculated, according to revised data. Here are some of the specific numbers, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA):

Consumer spending: Rose 1.6 percent, rather than the initially estimated 1 percent
Spending on goods: It dropped 2.4 percent instead of the 4.4 percent drop that was previously estimated.
Spending on services: Rose 3.6 percent.

This is good news, but keep in mind: “While the decline in growth was less severe than first estimated, the U.S. economy still appeared to contract for two consecutive quarters after Thursday’s revisions.”

More on today’s updated numbers

It’s Thursday. I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.

💸 In the White House

But what about inflation?:

President Biden’s plan to cancel at least $10,000 in student loan debt for most borrowers is coming under fire from some high-profile economists.

Like: Former Obama economic advisers Jason Furman and Larry Summers argue it could inflame inflation.

Do experts agree? Some do, some don’t: “Experts are divided over the inflationary effects Biden’s plan. Most agree, however, that even if student loan relief does lead to higher prices, the change will be marginal.”

^ Why?: “While Biden’s order will likely give student borrowers a total of at least $300 billion in relief over a decade, most experts don’t believe it will ignite a surge of consumer spending akin to previous rounds of stimulus checks doled out during the height of the pandemic.”

The debate over whether canceling student debt will inflame inflation, via The Hill’s Karl Evers-Hillstrom and Sylvan Lane

TIDBIT ABOUT PELL GRANT RECIPIENTS VS. OTHER BORROWERS:
CNN’s MJ Lee pointed out, “One reason the Pell Grants piece of Biden’s student loan debt cancellation announcement today is so significant — some 60% of borrowers are Pell Grant recipients, per senior admin officials. That means majority of borrowers will qualify for $20,000 in loan forgiveness.”

‘WHO QUALIFIES FOR BIDEN’S PLAN TO CANCEL $10,000 IN STUDENT DEBT?’:
Here’s a helpful Q&A from The Washington Post’s Danielle Douglas-Gabriel and Jeff Stein

‘10 OTHER WAYS TO GET YOUR STUDENT LOANS FORGIVEN’:
Also From The Washington Post’s Danielle Douglas-Gabriel

🌴 In Mar-a-Lago

Archives will take good care of them:

Via The Washington Post’s Josh Dawsey and Jacqueline Alemany, White House lawyer Pat Cipollone agreed that former President Trump’s records should be given to the National Archives, according to a newly revealed email.

National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) chief counsel Gary Stern said in an email to Trump lawyers in May 2021: “It is also our understanding that roughly two dozen boxes of original presidential records were kept in the Residence of the White House over the course of President Trump’s last year in office and have not been transferred to NARA, despite a determination by Pat Cipollone in the final days of the administration that they need to be.”

More on the efforts Archives made to recover the documents from Trump

‘WHY DID [TRUMP] RESIST RETURNING THE GOVERNMENT’S DOCUMENTS?’:

“As with so much else with the former president, there is not one easy answer as to why he refused and ignited a legal firestorm. But here are some possibilities.”

The New York Times’s Maggie Haberman lists and explains a few of the possibilities.

‘JUSTICE DEPT. TO SUBMIT REDACTED AFFIDAVIT USED IN TRUMP SEARCH WARRANT’:
Via The New York Times’s Glenn Thrush and Alan Feuer

If this were 2008, Trump would change his Facebook status with McConnell from ‘it’s complicated’ to ‘enemy’:

Former President Trump called for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to be booted from his leadership post, accusing him of being a “pawn for the Democrats.”

Trump said in a statement on Wednesday: “Mitch McConnell is not an Opposition Leader, he is a pawn for the Democrats to get whatever they want. He is afraid of them, and will not do what has to be done. A new Republican Leader in the Senate should be picked immediately!”

The Federalist story Trump cited about McConnell and his wife, Elaine Chao’s, alleged ties to China

🐘 On the campaign trail

Expect a MAGA-heavy House next year:

“House Republicans are not only forecast to win control of the lower chamber in November’s midterm elections, they’re also poised to bring with them a roster of new arrivals who have embraced the former president and his false claims of fraud surrounding his 2020 defeat,” write The Hill’s Emily Brooks and Mike Lillis.

Why that’s the case — primaries and retirements: “A number of Trump loyalists have bumped off more moderate Republicans in the summer primaries — a list that grew longer on Tuesday with conservative victories in Florida and New York — while a number of other centrists are stepping into retirement.”

What this could mean for the next Congress

Joe, could you stand over there? Ah, even further. Keep going. OK, right there!:

Via The Hill’s Brett Samuels and Alex Gangitano, “Some Democrats running in competitive reelection races in November are still reluctant to attach themselves to President Biden, even as he and the White House have been buoyed by a few weeks of good news.”

Where things stand for Biden: “Biden has in recent weeks racked up a series of major legislative victories, and he’s seen his poll numbers rebound slightly from all-time lows earlier in the summer. But that has yet to translate to enthusiasm among Democrats to embrace him on the campaign trail.”

Why some Democrats are still trying to keep their distance

🦠 Latest with COVID

➤ THE COVID-19 NUMBERS

Cases to date: 93.6 million

Death toll: 1,036,604

Current hospitalizations: 32,512

Shots administered: 607 million

Fully vaccinated: 67.4 percent of Americans

CDC data here.

🐥Notable tweets

I’m a little too excited about this:

Bloomberg’s Steven Dennis tweeted, “USA now has 333M people per the Census. Soon will be 333,333,333.”

⏱On tap

The House and Senate are out. President Biden is in Washington, D.C. Vice President Harris has no public events scheduled.

3:45 p.m.: Biden leaves for Montgomery, Md.
5 p.m.: Biden participates in a reception for the Democratic National Committee (DNC).
7 p.m. Biden participates in a DNC rally.
8:25 p.m.: Biden returns to the White House.

All times Eastern.

📺What to watch