The Hill’s Morning Report — Red wave likely in House as GOP gains crucial edge

by Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch - 10/26/22 6:25 AM ET

The midterm elections are less than two weeks away, and campaigns are scrambling to make last-minute pitches to voters as Election Day nears.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter on Tuesday increased its outlook for House GOP gains from 10 to 20 seats to 12 to 25 seats as Democrats’ blue state problems expanded. The GOP needs five seats to flip the House, and a new NBC News poll shows 78 percent of Republicans have a high interest in voting in the midterms, compared with 69 percent of Democrats.

David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report described the House landscape as “unusually bifurcated.” In some red and purple states, Democrats are beating President Biden’s ratings, but some of the party’s headaches are emerging in blue states such as New York, Oregon and Connecticut.

UVA Center for Politics, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Kyle Kondik: The House: GOP hits 218 in ratings as battle rages across big playing field.

“We thought for a little bit that we could defy gravity, but the reality is setting in,” Sean McElwee, executive director of Data for Progress, a progressive research and polling firm, told The New York Times.

McElwee said that with Democrats on the defensive in states across the country, the party’s goal should now be to limit its losses and look forward to taking back the House in 2024.

The razor-tight margins mean all eyes will be on a handful of key races Nov. 8 — but voters may not learn the results that night. Poll closing times, state election laws, various voting systems and when states count early votes could combine to keep people waiting for days or even weeks for results. The Hill’s Caroline Vakil has rounded up an idea of when voters will likely know the victors in key states including Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin and Ohio.

The Hill: Getting the call right: Projection pressure rises for news organizations.

In one of the cycle’s most hotly anticipated debates in a race that has tightened, Pennsylvania Senate candidates Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) and Republican TV doctor Mehmet Oz faced off Tuesday over issues, including abortion rights, inflation, fracking, which is viewed as important to Pennsylvania’s economy, and Oz’s backing from former President Trump.

But the focus for viewers became Fetterman’s health and recovery since suffering a stroke in May. He used closed captioning technology on the debate stage to ease his residual auditory processing and communications challenges, which were evident as the two candidates sparred. Oz, 62, sidestepped his opponent’s health during their exchanges, in contrast with his pointed approach on the campaign trail.

“I had a stroke. He’s never let me forget that,” Fetterman, 53, said of his Republican opponent. “And I might miss some words during this debate, mush two words together, but it knocked me down and I’m going to keep coming back up” (NewsNation and The Hill).

Republicans later jumped on Fetterman’s presentation on social media and in commentary, highlighting clips where he misspoke or was halting while answering questions (The Washington Post). The lieutenant governor’s campaign said donors contributed more than $1 million over three hours after the debate concluded.

During the event, which was hosted by Nexstar, The Hill’s parent company, the celebrity surgeon stopped short of endorsing a proposed 15-week national abortion ban, instead saying the matter should be decided between “women, doctors [and] local political leaders,” (Business Insider and The Washington Post).

On the economy and rising prices, which many voters nationwide say is their top issue, Oz vowed to “make sure we don’t have to raise taxes on a population already desperately in pain from the high inflation rate.” Fetterman questioned whether Oz can really empathize with American families. He called inflation a tax on working families, saying, “Dr. Oz can’t possibly understand what that is like” (Reuters).

▪ The Hill: Fetterman would back Biden in 2024; Oz would support Trump.

▪ The Washington Times: Fetterman says he backs fracking, a change of tune.

▪ Politico: Fetterman struggles during TV debate with Oz.

▪ Axios: Fetterman’s painful debate.

▪ Bloomberg News: Fetterman’s uneven debate gives Oz traction in Pennsylvania race.

▪ Roll Call: Fetterman had a stroke, but have voters ever cared about a candidate’s health?

Meanwhile, in New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) debated Republican challenger Rep. Lee Zeldin (R). The New York Times compiled five takeaways from the night.

House Republicans are increasingly hopeful they can bump off one of the top Democratic leaders — campaign chairman Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) — in a tightening race that exemplifies the tough terrain Democrats face in the final leg of the campaign, write The Hill’s Mike Lillis and Mychael Schnell. As recently as this summer, Maloney had a comfortable edge over Republican Michael Lawler, and President Biden won the Hudson Valley district by 10 points just two years ago.

But GOP operatives have seen the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s chairman as vulnerable this month, and The Cook Political Report shifted the race’s rating from “lean Democrat” to “toss up.” After Republicans dedicated millions of dollars to toppling Maloney, Democrats have responded, launching an eleventh-hour effort to save the district.

The developments have renewed the controversy surrounding Maloney’s decision to jump districts this year, increasing the odds that the lawmaker charged with keeping Democrats in their seats might lose his own (NBC News).

Big-money political groups aligned with the GOP are vastly outspending Democratic groups, The Hill’s Karl Evers-Hillstrom reports, bombarding the airwaves with ads as Republicans gain momentum entering the final stretch.

▪ Politico: GOP pours $6 million more into the Pennsylvania Senate race.

▪ The New York Times: With ads, imagery and words, Republicans inject race into campaigns.

▪ The Washington Post: What more than 1,000 political ads are arguing right before the midterms.

▪ MarketWatch: Here’s how outside spending is boosting candidates in tough Senate races with midterm elections just two weeks away.

In Arizona, a new lawsuit filed in a federal court alleges an organization called Clean Elections USA has engaged in a “coordinated campaign” to intimidate voters from depositing ballots at drop boxes in Maricopa County using armed vigilantes.

The Arizona Alliance for Retired Americans and the national organization Voto Latino said in a Monday complaint that at least five times last week armed and sometimes masked supporters of Clean Elections USA have intimidated voters at ballot boxes (The Hill).

▪ U.S. News: Two Arizona GOP officials vote against, then approve a proposed Nov. 8 hand counting of ballots, despite warnings.

▪ Vanity Fair: Armed and masked vigilantes are staking out Arizona ballot boxes with the GOP’s blessing.

▪ The Washington Post: Pro-Trump Republicans court election volunteers to “challenge any vote.”

Prominent Republicans are increasingly warning that Trump will lose if he runs again in 2024, reports The Hill’s Brett Samuels, providing an early indicator of the intraparty rifts that are likely to come into full view after the midterms. Former Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and former Vice President Mike Pence in recent days have both pointed out they’d rather see someone else on the ballot in 2024, illustrating how whispers about Trump’s viability are likely to turn into full-fledged disagreements among party members in the months to come.

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▪ The Hill: Deals for democracy: How college athletes are helping turn out the vote.

▪ Politico: Democrats are growing anxious — again — over Black turnout.

▪ The Hill: Trump, his children may be called to testify in company’s fraud trial, judge says.

▪ The Hill: Former Trump White House aide Hope Hicks to appear before Jan. 6 panel.

▪ Reuters: Midterm elections outlook darkens for Biden’s White House.

LEADING THE DAY

➤ CONGRESS

File this one in the Democrats’ “oops” drawer: About 30 members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus on Tuesday abruptly rescinded a letter to Biden urging changes in the U.S. policy toward Ukraine after their Monday missive perplexed and angered many Democrats as poorly timed before Nov. 8, seemingly supportive of some in the GOP and notably out of sync with the U.S. stance with allies to back Ukrainians and push back against Russia while leaving any diplomatic moves up to the government in Kyiv.

“The Congressional Progressive Caucus hereby withdraws its recent letter to the White House regarding Ukraine,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the caucus chairwoman, wrote in a walk-back statement, representing a stunning shift in the members’ call for a diplomatic push to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

“The letter was drafted several months ago, but unfortunately was released by staff without vetting. As Chair of the Caucus, I accept responsibility for this,” Jayapal wrote, throwing unnamed staff members under a bus. “Because of the timing, our message is being conflated by some as being equivalent to the recent statement by Republican Leader [Kevin] McCarthy [R-Calif.] threatening an end to aid to Ukraine if Republicans take over.”

House sources told The Hill’s Hanna Trudo on Tuesday that the reason for the letter’s release within days of the all-important midterm elections was unclear. Within hours on Tuesday, the caucus scrambled to repair the damage (The Hill). The White House quickly restated that Biden is strongly committed to backing Ukraine with U.S. military and humanitarian assistance until the end of Russia’s war (The Hill).

Ahead of Election Day, Democrats are pondering big changes should Republicans gain control of one or both chambers next year. The Hill’s Alexander Bolton and Mike Lillis report how the House Democratic leadership could dramatically change and how Democratic losses could raise the wattage of some in the president’s party who would like to be a presidential nominee in 2024. If Democrats suffer a shellacking on Election Day, defeat could dim enthusiasm for Biden, who will be 80 on Nov. 20, to seek a second term, despite his stated intentions to run again if he’s healthy. In a divided government next year, Democratic lawmakers may distance themselves from the party’s most progressive members and policies.

Thinking ahead, some Democrats are pondering how they can short-circuit some conservative GOP plans — in other words, run interference against conservatives’ vow to wield the nation’s borrowing authority as a political weapon — by raising the debt ceiling this year rather than next while Biden and his party still control the agenda (The Hill). If Democrats are unable to raise the borrowing cap themselves, experts fear a showdown with conservatives could rattle financial markets on the edge because of recession and other woes. But to succeed, Senate Democrats would most likely need support from at least 10 Republican colleagues, a tall order.

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ INTERNATIONAL

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Tuesday met with King Charles III, marking the official start of his term in office, and he spoke by phone with Biden about Ukraine and the Good Friday Agreement, which ended the Northern Ireland conflict (The Hill).

Sunak, the first British Indian and person of color to hold the post, succeeds embattled Conservative Party Prime Minister Liz Truss, who resigned after 45 tumultuous days in office.

The U.K.’s third prime minister in just seven weeks, Sunak inherits an economic and cost-of-living crisis. On Tuesday, he acknowledged his predecessor’s mistakes, and promised to lead with “integrity, professionalism and accountability” (NBC News).

“Our country is facing a profound economic crisis,” Sunak said in his first speech as prime minister outside No. 10. “I will unite our country not with words but with action.”

▪ The Guardian: New U.K. prime minister Sunak warns of “difficult decisions to come”.

▪ The Washington Post: King Charles III plays a role his late mother did in the U.K. power transition.

Former WNBA star Brittney Griner on Tuesday lost her legal appeal in a Moscow court and will begin serving a nine-year sentence on drug charges in a penal colony elsewhere in Russia. In a statement, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Griner is “wrongfully detained under intolerable circumstances after having to undergo another sham judicial proceeding” (The Hill).

Sullivan added the White House “has continued to engage with Russia through every available channel and make every effort to bring home Brittney as well as to support and advocate for other Americans detained in Russia, including fellow wrongful detainee Paul Whelan.”

Fears are rising that a major nuclear or other event on Ukrainian soil in the near future will be a Russian “false flag” operation. Moscow wants to regain momentum and blaming Kyiv for a catastrophic event could be part of the Russian playbook, writes The Hill’s Ellen Mitchell.

Biden warned the Kremlin on Tuesday against using any radioactive weapons in its war in Ukraine as tensions rise over potential nuclear offensives by Russia. U.S. officials on Monday continued to vehemently reject Russia’s claims that Ukraine was planning to use a “dirty bomb” on its own land, allegations seen as an excuse to escalate the war.

But the Kremlin’s allegations — made by Russia’s defense minister on Sunday and repeated Monday by a Moscow spokesman — come on the heels of warnings from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, citing unspecified intelligence, that Russia was mining a key dam near Kherson as a way to cause widespread flooding and destruction to nearby villages and towns.

▪ Reuters: U.S. considers a HAWK ground-to-air defense missile system for Ukraine.

▪ Reuters: Russia digging in for ‘heaviest of battles’ in Kherson – Ukrainian official.

OPINION

■ Rishi Sunak won’t save Britain, by Kimi Chaddah, guest essayist, The New York Times. https://nyti.ms/3DsQX4B

■ Think homeowners will stay put? Austin, Texas, suggests otherwise, by Jonathan Levin, columnist, Bloomberg Opinion. https://bloom.bg/3N44RgE

■ Why we need to expand the Democratic majority in Congress, by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), opinion contributor, The Hill. https://bit.ly/3D8LzSP

WHERE AND WHEN

👉 YOU’RE INVITED: Have a news query tied to an expert journalist’s insights? The Hill has launched something new and (we hope) engaging via text with Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack. Learn more and sign up HERE.

The House meets at 10 a.m. on Friday for a pro forma session. Members are scheduled to return to the Capitol on Nov. 14.

The Senate convenes at noon on Thursday for a pro forma session. Senators make their way back to Washington on Nov. 14.

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 9 a.m. Biden will give remarks about the economy and families at 10:30 a.m. He will welcome Israeli President Isaac Herzog to the White House for discussions at 12:45 p.m. Biden will meet at 3 p.m. with military and civilian leaders from the Pentagon to discuss “national security priorities.” The president beginning at 7:30 p.m. will participate in three virtual political receptions for House candidates competing in Nevada, Iowa and Pennsylvania.

Vice President Harris is in Seattle to speak at 10:20 a.m. PT about clean energy school buses accompanied by Michael Regan, the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. She will headline a Democratic fundraising event for Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wa.) at 1 p.m. PT.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken will attend Biden’s meeting with Herzog at the White House at 12:45 p.m. The secretary will host and deliver remarks at a Diwali reception for the Indian holiday at the State Department at 5:45 p.m.

Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra will travel to Houston to visit Legacy Community Health and hold a roundtable discussion at 11 a.m. CT with Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas) about the health insurance open enrollment period, which begins Nov. 1. Becerra will travel to the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center for a roundtable discussion at 3 p.m. CT about the president’s cancer moonshot goal of cutting cancer deaths in half over the next quarter-century. Becerra will remain in Texas overnight.

First lady Jill Biden will fly to Providence, R.I., and visit Rhode Island College at 3:30 p.m. with Gov. Daniel McKee (D) and first lady Susan McKee to promote careers in education. Jill Biden will speak at 4:45 p.m. at a political event for Daniel McKee and the Rhode Island State Democratic Party. An hour later, she will speak at a political event for Democratic congressional candidate Seth Magaziner. She will also deliver pre-recorded remarks at 7 p.m. during a virtual event for the group Handshake, to help undergraduate students learn about various careers in the field of education.

The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 2 p.m.

🎂 Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton celebrates her 75th birthday!

ELSEWHERE

➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH

The administration on Tuesday announced an autumn push to get more Americans boosted with vaccine doses ahead of what could be a surge of COVID-19 as well as the flu. Biden received a tailored booster dose in public from a member of the White House’s medical unit (ABC News).

“We’re here with a simple message: Get vaccinated, update your COVID vaccine,” he said. “It’s incredibly effective, but the truth is not enough people are getting it. We’ve got to change that so that we can all have a safe and healthy holiday season.”

Asked if COVID-19 is still a national emergency, the president added, “It’s a necessity to deal with to make sure it doesn’t become one.”

People can find appointments to get vaccines near them by checking Vaccines.gov using a zip code.

Here’s why Biden is concerned about waning public interest in COVID-19 vaccines: When people move indoors during winter months and the highly transmissible omicron mutations do, too, experts and stakeholders expect rising cases of infection. Those individuals who are most at risk for serious illness are older, immunocompromised and skipped vaccinations or boosters. Recovering from earlier bout of COVID-19 does not rule out future infection with the latest alphabet-soup versions of the coronavirus (The Hill).

▪ CNN: COVID-19 vaccine study links side effects with greater antibody response.

▪ The Los Angeles Times: Got COVID-19? Your symptoms may depend on your vaccination status.

▪ Bloomberg News: About 3 million Americans stayed out of the workforce based on fears of contracting COVID-19, reducing the nation’s economic output by $250 billion in the first half of 2022.

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,068,433. Current U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 2,566 for the week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (The CDC shifted its tally of available data from daily to weekly, now reported on Fridays.)

➤ ECONOMY

Organized labor is not happy about increasing interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, writes The Hill’s Tobias Burns, and unions are joining a chorus of voices on the left arguing that lower inflation is not worth the pain of potential recession.

U.S. home prices saw a record slowdown in August, falling by 2.6 percent as the nation’s central bank moves aggressively to raise rates — making it more costly to afford a mortgage (The Hill).

“As the Federal Reserve moves interest rates higher, mortgage financing becomes more expensive, and housing becomes less affordable,” Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, said in a media statement. “Given the continuing prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to decelerate.”

Reuters: U.S. yields climb as hawkish Fed concerns outweigh weaker economic data.

THE CLOSER

And finally … 🧟‍♂️ If the zombies ever take over, here’s how they’ll act.

It’s unlikely — read, impossible — for zombies to rise up on Earth, but in honor of Halloween, The Washington Post asked scientists in several fields to answer questions about zombie behavior based on what we know about the human brain and body. Hypothetically, of course.

Rapidly decaying brain matter means zombies would lose out on key cognitive function, leading them to attack with impunity. And their appetite for human brains means zombies are basically following a keto (high-protein, low-carbohydrate) diet.

But fret not. Even a highly motivated zombie probably couldn’t climb up from six feet under, because that much dirt on top of a standard-sized casket could weigh more than 7,000 pounds.

Interested in more zombie research from the comfort of home? BuzzFeed offers a guide to 34 “excellent zombie movies ranging from horrifying to hilarious.” Oh, goodie. 🪦

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