Welcome to The Hill’s Morning Report. Happy Monday! Our newsletter gets you up to speed on the most important developments in politics and policy, plus trends to watch. Co-creators are Alexis Simendinger and Al Weaver (CLICK HERE to subscribe!). On Twitter, find us at @asimendinger and @alweaver22.
Lawmakers return to Capitol Hill this week in a mad dash to their August recess with issues crowding center stage, including oversight by House Democrats, government spending, debt ceiling negotiations and the upcoming testimony by former special counsel Robert Mueller next week.
Democrats are wedded to oversight as a potent weapon against President Trump and the executive branch. As Jacqueline Thomsen and Morgan Chalfant report, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is banking on multiple ongoing congressional probes to hold the administration accountable as the number of lawmakers calling for a formal impeachment inquiry grows. According to The Hill’s whip list, 81 House Democrats (and one former Republican) have called for an impeachment inquiry that Pelosi is working to discourage.
The Speaker points to the party’s strides in the judicial branch against the Trump administration as proof that her party is pursuing an effective strategy. Legal experts and congressional history back her up. Federal judges, for example, generally side with Congress’s oversight powers in court battles over executive privilege. Experts told The Hill that even without impeachment on the table, House Democrats are still more likely to win their court fights with the administration — including before the Supreme Court.
“I think that Congress’s role as the oversight organization is so compelling that the Supreme Court would uphold the [committee] subpoenas,” said Jill Wine-Banks, a member of the special prosecutor’s team during Watergate.
The House Oversight and Reform Committee will be back at it with high-profile hearings, headlined on Wednesday with a withering appraisal of the treatment of migrant children at the southern border by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Chairman Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) invited acting DHS Secretary Kevin McAleenan and acting Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Mark Morgan to testify.
The hearing was announced amid worsening conditions last week after a group of House Democrats toured the facility in Clint, Texas, and decried what they witnessed. It also comes after an inspector general’s report said investigators found “dangerous overcrowding and prolonged detention” of immigrant children and adults at facilities in the Rio Grande Valley, adding that the detained children require “immediate attention and action.”
The president and administration officials fired back at the report and subsequent reporting by The New York Times, which Trump called a “hoax.” McAleenan defended the conditions at the Texas facility, acknowledging it’s an “extraordinarily challenging situation.”
The fight over the border and immigration policy is expected to rage on, especially as the DHS appropriations bill remains a point of friction between moderate and progressive House Democrats. Moderates won the most recent battle over a $4.6 billion supplemental spending measure focused on needs at the border, a victory that did not sit well with progressives in the House caucus.
Politico: Threat of budget disaster rises amid discord in both parties.
> Across the Capitol, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch (R-Idaho) is walking a political tightrope as he tries to craft new Saudi Arabia legislation. According to Jordain Carney, Risch, a low-profile senator who sticks closely to Trump, wants a bill that can win over the Senate and the White House, a potentially herculean goal given the deep divisions in the wake of journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s death.
He’ll face his first test as soon as this week, when he’s expected to give his forthcoming bill a vote in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, where a majority of his members supported recent resolutions to box Trump in on Saudi Arabia.
Congress had hoped to resolve one trade issue that now appears stalled before lawmakers leave for the six-week August break. Ratification of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which the White House has lobbied Congress to clear, now looks like a question mark.
As Cristina Marcos reports, House Democrats from across the spectrum are demanding that the trade pact with Mexico and Canada be renegotiated, citing concerns with the implications for labor standards and drug prices. While they insist they want to get the USMCA passed, they aren’t holding themselves to a deadline.
LEADING THE DAY
2020 CAMPAIGN: With roughly 16 months until Election Day, multiple factors should give the president a sense of optimism as his reelection bid gains steam, even as he faces negative polling against potential Democratic challengers.
As Ian Swanson, Sylvan Lane and Julia Manchester write, a number of things are going Trump’s way, leaving him better positioned for victory in a second term — namely, a strong economy that is showing little sign of slowing down, the burgeoning and divisive Democratic presidential primary, and the financial edge he is likely to have next year as Democrats wrap up their primary contest.
On the economic side, Trump has been the recipient of strong economic numbers throughout his 2 ½ years in office, including a 3.7 percent unemployment rate, the second-lowest figure recorded in nearly 50 years, and a gain of 224,000 jobs in the economy in June. Additionally, wages ticked up last month and the stock market remains strong as the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new record.
“We have very good pro-growth policies, low taxes, deregulation, opening energy, trade reform,” top White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow recently told Bloomberg TV. “I think the incentives of our supply-side policies are working.”
Trump clearly continues to see former Vice President Joe Biden as a formidable opponent and has not ceased attacking him whenever he can. Most recently, Trump tweeted about Biden’s work with segregationists and plan to reverse the Republican tax cuts passed into law in late 2017.
However, Biden has stumbled lately and has seen his poll numbers dip, giving Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) an opening. Both are more progressive than Biden, something Republicans would welcome.
Financially, the president holds a major advantage over the eventual Democratic nominee. In the second fundraising quarter, Trump’s reelection bid and the Republican National Committee raised $105 million. By contrast, South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg raised nearly $25 million, pacing the Democratic field.
Additionally, Trump’s approval numbers have reached some of the highest points of his presidency, although they consistently remain below 50 percent, considered by political scientists to be a warning sign for past incumbents who sought second terms. According to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, 47 percent of registered voters approve of Trump, the highest number the poll has produced. The most recent RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls puts Trump’s approval figure at 45 percent, the second-highest since his inauguration.
One potential speed bump cropped up once again on Sunday, however. Days after he announced his departure from the Republican Party, Rep. Justin Amash (Mich.) declined once again to rule out a third party run for president in 2020, a possibility that could create headaches for the president’s reelection efforts.
“I still wouldn’t rule anything like that out. I believe that I have to use my skills, my public influence, where it serves the country best. And I believe I have to defend the Constitution in whichever way works best,” he told CNN’s “State of the Union”
Most notably, Amash could hurt the president in Michigan, where Trump won in 2016 by less than 11,000 votes over Hillary Clinton and has little margin for error. However, Amash has said in recent months that if he runs, he would not do so as a spoiler.
The Washington Post: Aided by a strong economy, Trump approval rises, but a majority also see him as “unpresidential.”
The Hill: Lawmakers return as Amash fallout looms.
National Review: Could Amash cost Trump reelection?
> With the first debates in the rearview mirror, a new batch of presidential rankings are out, and there’s a new leader in the clubhouse.
After a strong June, capped off by a rise in the polls and a strong debate performance, Warren has leapfrogged Biden, with Harris trailing the two.
As Niall Stanage writes, Warren is not leading in any national polls. But she’s ascending and her message on the stump is resonating. The Massachusetts senator also appears to be on the brink of supplanting Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) as the standard-bearer of the left — a development that could fundamentally reshape the race.
Despite his continued lead in polls nationally and in primary polls, Biden slipped one spot, largely because of the Miami debate and the problems that have emerged since his battle onstage with Harris. The focus on race and school busing eroded his support among black voters. It raised grave questions about whether he would be the strongest candidate against Trump — a rationale for his candidacy. It also stoked concerns on the sensitive issue of his age at 76.
As for Harris, the debate was the fuel she needed to climb into the top tier of the primary battle. It boosted her profile and popularity among voters of color, whose support will be vital if she is to prevail, and put her candidacy in the headlines for days.
> Drop-out Watch?: Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) announced early Monday that he will hold a press conference from his campaign headquarters in Dublin, Calif., at 4 p.m. EST. While most 2020 candidates campaigned during the July Fourth holiday, Swalwell canceled two days of events in New Hampshire, stoking chatter that he could be the first 2020 Democrat to exit the race. During recent television appearances, Swalwell has tried to explain his low standing in recent polls.
The New York Times: Warren and Harris rise in Democratic primary, challenging male front-runners.
The Associated Press: Buttigieg has money, but can he turn it into 2020 win?
The Atlantic: Tom Steyer is telling allies he’s running for president.
The Hill: 2020 Democrats vow to get tough on lobbyists.
The Associated Press: John Hickenlooper: Vast majority of campaign’s problem “was me.”
Politico: “Members are looking over their shoulders”: Democrats spooked by new primary threats.
IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES
WHITE HOUSE & ADMINISTRATION: President Hassan Rouhani of Iran has placed a risky bet that breaching the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated with world powers will force the United States to back away from crushing sanctions that slashed the country’s oil exports and crippled its economy. Iran is angling for a way to return to the terms of the agreement or ease sanctions by splitting European nations from the Trump administration, which the Europeans blame for sparking the escalating crisis (The New York Times).
The Hill: Five things to know about Iran’s violations of the four-year-old agreement and the implications.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned Sunday that Iran’s decision to violate the terms of the pact would “lead to further isolation and sanctions,” arguing that Iran should exist under international strictures of no allowable enrichment. A nuclear-armed Iran “would pose an even greater danger to the world,” Pompeo tweeted.
Trump said Iran “better be careful” as he spoke with reporters before departing New Jersey to return to the White House on Sunday evening (Reuters).
Iranian officials said they would begin enriching uranium above the level allowed by the 2015 nuclear deal “within several hours” on Sunday. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran indicated that international monitors would be able to confirm the breach today (The Washington Post).
The Trump administration on Friday called for a special session of the United Nations atomic agency board, ratcheting up the pressure on Europe and other allies to take a stand against Iran.
Reuters: Roundup of international reactions to Iran’s announcement it will increase uranium enrichment.
> Census: The president this week expects to receive additional input from Attorney General William Barr and other advisers about whether or how he can add a citizenship question to the 2020 census on his executive say-so as the U.S. Census Bureau began printing the national survey without the question.
“We have four or five ways we could do it,” Trump said last week and again on Sunday, declining to retreat after the Justice and Commerce departments said last week that no such question would appear on the population survey conducted every 10 years.
Barr and his deputies suddenly assigned a new team of lawyers to take over the census cases, The Washington Post and other news organizations reported Sunday night. Court filings today are expected to indicate that the new team is made up of political and career lawyers from the department’s Civil Division and Consumer Protection Branch.
One potential avenue, the president insists, could be an executive order or presidential memorandum, which many legal experts say would immediately be challenged in court. Another possibility, the president said, is to continue printing the census survey without the question and then “maybe do an addendum” to the census next year “after we get a positive decision” from the Supreme Court. Trump has also argued that the 2020 census should be delayed, although its deadlines appear in statute.
The high court last month sent a legal challenge involving the administration’s push for citizenship data back to the Commerce and Justice departments, ruling that the government presented unpersuasive evidence when it said it wanted to protect voting rights by probing every household for citizenship status (The Hill).
Ken Cuccinelli, acting director for Citizenship and Immigration Services, said he’s confident Trump will get his way.
“I think the president has expressed determination. He’s noted that the Supreme Court didn’t say this can’t be asked. They said they didn’t appreciate the process by which it came forward the first time. The president is determined to fix that and to have it roll forward in the 2020 census,” he said on Fox News Sunday (NBC News).
CNN: Why does Trump want such a question added to the census and why is it controversial?
The Hill: The American Civil Liberties Union asked the court on Friday to block the president’s efforts.
The Morning Report is created by journalists Alexis Simendinger and Al Weaver. We want to hear from you! Email: asimendinger@digital-staging.thehill.com and aweaver@digital-staging.thehill.com. We invite you to share The Hill’s reporting and newsletters, and encourage others to SUBSCRIBE!
OPINION
The ‘invisible primary’ has begun, by Bill Schneider, former senior political analyst for CNN, professor at George Mason University and opinion contributor, The Hill. https://bit.ly/2XNYVBr
Prescription drug prices keep climbing. Here’s how to change that, by The New York Times editorial board. https://nyti.ms/2YED78i
WHERE AND WHEN
Hill.TV’s “Rising” program features presidential candidate and former Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.) talking about the 2020 Democratic race, and Joseph Moreno, a former federal prosecutor, on the president’s push to add a citizenship question to the census at 9 a.m. ET at http://digital-staging.thehill.com/hilltv or on YouTube at 10 a.m. at Rising on YouTube.
The House will return to work on Tuesday.
The Senate convenes at 3 p.m. and resumes consideration of the nomination of Daniel Bress to be a judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit.
The president will participate in a credentialing ceremony for newly appointed ambassadors. He’ll have lunch with Vice President Pence. He plans to laud the administration’s environmental record during an East Room event at 3:30 p.m. Trump will attend a dinner hosted by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in honor of Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, the emir of Qatar, who will hold a bilateral meeting with the president at the White House on Tuesday.
Pence will speak at the annual summit of Christians United for Israel at 11 a.m. at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington.
Pompeo will speak to the news media at 9:15 am. at the State Department. He will address the Foreign Affairs Policy Board at 9:45 a.m. At 2:30 p.m., the secretary plans to follow in the vice president’s footsteps and speak at the Christians United for Israel event in Washington.
ELSEWHERE
➔ State-City Watch: Cities and states lead a new assault on the use of facial recognition technology, criticized as invasive and potentially discriminatory, while Congress struggles to tackle the technology’s ramifications (The Hill). …Agents with the FBI and Immigration and Customs Enforcement have turned to state driver’s license databases, using facial recognition to create a surveillance operation to scan through millions of Americans’ photos without their knowledge or consent (The Washington Post). …State legislatures are engaged in nasty political battles over bills that limit exemptions for vaccines as opponents of required public health inoculations resort to increasingly threatening tactics (The Hill).
➔ Earthquakes: The ground is still shaking, but the danger is thought to be over in California after the worst quake in two decades caused damage but no deaths last week (USA Today). …The quakes are pushing Californians to prepare for the next big jolt (The Associated Press).
➔ Courts: Billionaire New York financier Jeffrey Epstein, 66, arrested on Saturday, is expected today to face a federal magistrate in New York on federal charges of sex trafficking in New York and Florida. Epstein secured one of the nation’s most lenient plea deals for a serial sex offender more than a decade ago in Florida following accusations he sexually assaulted dozens of underage girls. The prosecutor at the time was Alexander Acosta, now the secretary of labor in the Trump administration (The Miami Herald and The New York Times). … ObamaCare is back in court on Tuesday in a closely-watched case as the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans hears arguments supportive of the Trump administration’s push to overturn all of the Affordable Care Act. Regardless of the outcome, Democrats are likely to use the case to paint Republicans as a threat to the private insurance coverage millions of Americans rely on (The Hill).
THE CLOSER
And finally … ⚽ The U.S. women’s national team took home its second consecutive FIFA World Cup title on Sunday, defeating the Netherlands 2-0 in Lyon, France behind goals from Megan Rapinoe and Rose Lavelle.
The win culminated a dominating month for the team, which won the program’s fourth World Cup. Over seven games, the U.S. women set a new record for the most goals in a single World Cup, 26, plus another record of 13 goals in the team’s opening match against Thailand.
“It’s surreal. I don’t know how to feel like now. It’s ridiculous,” Rapinoe said. “We’re crazy and that’s what makes us so special. We just have no quit in us. We’re so tight, and we’ll do anything to win.”
Rapinoe was the star of the tournament for the U.S. squad. Playing in her third World Cup, Rapinoe nabbed the Golden Ball, given to the best overall player during the tournament and the Golden Boot, awarded to the top scorer.
The president and the first lady both congratulated the team, with Trump hailing “great and exciting play,” adding that “America is proud of you all!” He told reporters before departing Bedminster, N.J., for the White House that he hasn’t “really thought about” inviting the team to the White House. (He previously invited the team on Twitter whether the U.S. women won the tournament or not.)
Some top female athletes, past and present, used the moment to call for the team to receive equal pay. According to Darren Rovell, each player earned about $250,000 for winning the title. If the men’s team ever wins, each player is slated to receive more than $1.1 million.
The U.S. women’s team will be honored on Wednesday morning with a parade down the Canyon of Heroes in New York City, the second time the program will receive the honor. Their victory was also celebrated with a parade after the team captured the 2015 title.
