Dems walk tightrope in S.C. on guns

Democratic presidential candidates may face a precarious balancing act tonight in their first debate if forced to discuss divisive social issues before two audiences — national and state voters.

Last week’s Supreme Court ruling to uphold a ban on late-term abortion procedure and questions about gun control arising from the Virginia Tech massacre could serve as jumping-off points for moderator Brian Williams of NBC.

{mosads}The White House hopefuls will have to address both issues in front of what are essentially two distinct audiences: a national base that leans left on the issues, and a live audience in the crucial state of South Carolina, where Democrats tend to be more socially conservative.

Although the Iraq war most likely will dominate the debate, analysts from the University of South Carolina and Clemson University said both sets of voters would monitor the candidates’ responses to questions on hot-button social issues.

The debate at South Carolina State University is in an area of the early-voting Palmetto State with a high concentration of black voters, who often are more conservative than voters in other regions on issues such as abortion and gay marriage.

“You tend to see a very pro-life view among this electorate,” a political science professor at Clemson, Adam Warber, said. “It’s very conservative.”

So-called partial-birth abortion, in particular, is an issue that religious leaders in black churches, who often change more minds than campaign speeches, struggle with politically and ideologically, according David Woodard, also of Clemson.

“There is some risk,” Woodard said. “There may be some separation from the national party position.”

In 2003, when the bill to ban the procedure passed, all three Democrats in the state’s congressional delegation — Sen. Ernest “Fritz” Hollings and Reps. John Spratt and James Clyburn — voted in favor of it.

By contrast, among the current presidential contenders serving in the Senate in 2003, only Sen. Joseph Biden (D-Del.) voted for the bill. Biden has moved in recent days to cement his position as a supporter of abortion rights, although he says he makes “no apologies” for his 2003 vote.

Aside from Biden, the rest of the field rushed to issue releases decrying the court’s decision, calling it an “erosion of our constitutional rights” and “disappointing.”

“It’s going to be interesting to see how they dance around that,” Stephen Wainscott, of Clemson, said. “I just think it’s going to be a really ticklish situation.”

Wainscott said the candidates will need to be mindful of the race for delegates in the state’s early primary while remembering “television airwaves know no state borders.”

A political science professor at USC, Blease Graham, echoed that sentiment.

“The gamble is, in reality this is a national audience these candidates are speaking to,” Graham said.

One Democratic campaign official acknowledged that part of her candidate’s debate preparations had dealt with how to navigate questions that might arise following last week’s news.

“It seems like that anytime something happens very recently you have got to take a look at it,” the official said. “You’ve got to be aware of anything that could come up, and you’ve got to be ready.”

Addressing social issues can be especially vexing for the perceived frontrunners, who are trying to score points with liberal voters without sacrificing the center, Warber said.

Because of that, Warber said, second- and third-tier candidates looking to make some noise and perhaps generate headlines may look to “press the other candidates like [Sen. Hillary Rodham] Clinton (N.Y.) or [Sen. Barack] Obama (Ill.)” on more liberal positions.

Analysts agreed that the race for Democrats in South Carolina is more for the primary win — critical ahead of the Feb. 5 “Super-Duper Tuesday” — than the general. President Bush won the state 58 to 41 percent over Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004.

“I think in general, [Democrats] are just frustrated with trying to figure out how to build a Southern strategy,” Warber said.

Republican National Committee (RNC) officials are well aware of the state’s history and the Democratic dilemma and will no doubt seek to capitalize on statements made tonight regardless of who becomes the party’s nominee.

“There’s a reason that the Democrats haven’t won South Carolina in a presidential election in 30 years, and it’s because they’re very out of the mainstream with the voters in the state,” RNC spokesman Dan Ronayne said.

“Democrats can tap-dance all they want, but when it comes to the issues, they’re simply wrong for the state.”