Primary today could spell end for Ky. ex-Rep. Northup

Today’s Kentucky gubernatorial primary could bring former Rep. Anne Northup’s (R) second defeat in two months, and state analysts say that would put her political career on hold indefinitely.

Northup was denied a fifth term in the House after being beaten by Rep. John Yarmuth (D) last year, and her decision to go after Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) on the heels of that defeat has “ruffled some feathers” in the state party.

{mosads}Heading into today’s race, Northup is trailing Fletcher 44 percent to 34 percent according to the most recent SurveyUSA polls.

If that number holds, analysts said, the former congresswoman, who long has been a favorite of the state party and, largely, of Republican Sens. Mitch McConnell and Jim Bunning, may find herself banished to the sidelines.

“I think that’d be it for her, at least for the time being,” a political science professor at Western Kentucky University, Jonathan Winburn, said. “I don’t know where she’d go.”

Winburn said the stigma of being perceived as a two-time loser could inflict long-term damage on Northup, especially if Fletcher loses to a Democrat in November.

Northup has run a campaign highly critical of Fletcher for a first term marred by ethical controversies. The former Louisville congresswoman repeatedly has attacked the governor for making the seat a strong possible pickup for the Democratic Party, even running ads about ads that her campaign said Democrats would run if Fletcher is the nominee.

“I think that’s kind of a dangerous tactic,” Winburn said.

Northup has not necessarily struggled in fundraising in an abbreviated campaign season, but even after she and her husband donated $500,000 to her campaign, she still had raised only half what Fletcher did.

The last filing report was due 15 days before today’s election, with a five-day grace period. That report showed Northup with about $376,000 cash on hand and Fletcher with $576,000.

In the Bluegrass State, if none of the candidates gets to 40 percent today, then the two top vote-getters would proceed to a June 26 runoff. But the involvement of wealthy businessman Billy Harper has made that look less likely.

If Northup fails to get to the magic number today, it doesn’t have to mean the end of her political career, but a cooling-off period might be a good idea, one analyst said.

“I don’t think it will necessarily be the end of her career, but I’m not sure what she’ll need to do to recover,” a political science professor at the University of Louisville, Laurie Rhodebeck, said.

Rhodebeck said Northup always has been “very well regarded” by the state party, and it’s not inconceivable that she might run for Bunning’s seat if he reverses course and decides not to run for reelection in 2010.

“That would give her time to recover,” Rhodebeck said.

Republican National Committewoman and acting state GOP Chairwoman Gail Russell said Northup continues to be well-respected in the party, and if she does lose today, there would continue to be support for her in the state.

“I wouldn’t say that her political future is over at all,” Russell said of Northup’s possible defeat. “I would hope that she would want to continue on in some capacity.”

Northup spokesman Barry Peel said momentum was with the campaign in closing days, and Northup wasn’t thinking past today’s election.

“Knowing Anne, she’s focused like a laser beam on the task at hand, and I doubt she [has] even thought about [her political future],” Peel said. “She won’t think about that until Wednesday, if she needs to.”