Victory in W. Va. could spread to other states

The West Virginia GOP could announce its pick for president by 2:30 p.m. Eastern time on Feb. 5, potentially giving that candidate a boost in states where polls close hours later.

More than a dozen states have moved their primaries to so-called Super Duper Tuesday, including delegate-rich California, New York and New Jersey. West Virginia’s unique nominating convention could make a lot of noise during the traditional tedium of Election Day.

{mosads}While the state is not on the tip of most pundits’ tongues, that could change if a winner is announced as early as 11:30 a.m. on the West Coast.

“I believe it can have a big impact,” convention chief executive Robert Fish said, adding that he does not expect votes to be cast any later than 4 p.m. “This can give a winning characteristic to one of the campaigns.”

State officials are planning to brief the Republican presidential candidates and media outlets this morning about the party’s Feb. 5 nominating convention.

A source in the Mountain State said the campaigns of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) already have campaign operatives on the ground there.

The convention is a departure from the traditional primary and caucus systems: Each county will elect 1,421 delegates who will, in turn, vote for a White House candidate.

One round of voting will begin in the morning to narrow the crowded field down to three candidates.

Then the party will allow for a one-hour break, during which Fish envisions serious horse-trading, as the supporters of vanquished candidates look to sign on with one of the three top vote-getters.

A giant tote board at the front of the room will keep score.

Because delegates will not be beholden to any one candidate when they are elected on the county level, Fish acknowledged the potential for critiques like those made of the Electoral College.

But he said the Republican National Committee has not raised any objections, and the state party is anticipating getting the RNC’s “blessing” once the final rules and schedules are reviewed this month.

The effects of East Coast voting on the West Coast long have been the subject of speculation, leading most outlets to refrain from making exit poll projections public.

A political science professor at the University of Michigan, John Jackson, published a piece on network exit polls and their effect on President Carter’s concession and the subsequent West Coast turnout in 1980.

Jackson said the effects are difficult to “pin down quantifiably,” but said evidence from the 1980 race suggests that if West Coast voters think the race is over, they are less likely to turn out.

He added that on a day when reporters and network news producers are twiddling their thumbs and begging for news before the polls close, the West Virginia Republican Party’s announcement will be like food to a starving village.

“It will get a lot of attention,” Jackson said. “It certainly will take on added importance.”

What’s more, Jackson said, the process has the potential to breathe life into a dark horse campaign that might have struggled in early-voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire.