Intelligence report details ups and downs in Iraq

Unclassified portions of an intelligence report released Thursday showed that there have been some improvements in Iraq’s security situation but also cautioned that the country’s government “will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months.”

The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), which is described as the “Intelligence Community’s most authoritative written judgments on national security issues,” sees greater uncertainty now than six months ago regarding the situation in Iraq. This is attributed to “the unfolding pace and scope of security and political realities in Iraq,” according to the report.

{mosads}Leading a list of the NIE’s key judgments is an assessment of the security situation. It says that “the steep escalation of violence has been checked for now,” even though overall levels of violence remain high.

However, the political situation is volatile.

“Broadly accepted compromises required for sustained security, long-term political progress, and economic development are unlikely to emerge unless there is a fundamental shift in the factors driving Iraqi political and security developments,” the NIE said.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said the new report shows “what most Americans already know: Our troops are mired in an Iraqi civil war and the President’s escalation strategy has failed to produce the political results he promised to our troops and the American people.”

Reid said the NIE shows why it is important to change course.

However, the intelligence community also said that the mere perception that U.S. troops could soon begin withdrawing could spur violence as Iraqi groups would try to position themselves to bolster their role in the power vacuum that would be created.

In addition, the NIE says that Iraq’s neighbors, in particular Iran, Syria and Turkey, would also “continue to focus on improving their leverage in Iraq in anticipation of a coalition drawdown.”