GOPers jockey for 2nd, 3rd in Iowa

Political experts in Iowa say top-tier Republican presidential candidates are facing growing pressure from two social conservatives who may grab one of the “three tickets out of Iowa” because of greater organizational strength.

As a result, candidates such as Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) and former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.) will have to decide whether to invest more time and money in a state they had hoped to survive easily on the way to more favorable contests.

{mosads}Recent polls show former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) with a commanding lead in Iowa, followed by Giuliani and Thompson, both of whom are hovering around 14 percent support from likely Republican voters.

Giuliani and Thompson are well within striking distance of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who has built the second-largest campaign organization in the state after Romney. Polls show Huckabee with about 10 percent support.

Given that the difference between third and fourth place in next year’s caucuses is likely to be decided by fewer than 5,000 votes, Huckabee’s campaign infrastructure presents a real threat to top-tier GOP candidates.

Ray Hoffmann, the state Republican chairman, told The Hill in an interview that Huckabee and Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.) have the two largest campaign organizations in the Hawkeye State after Romney.

Hoffmann said Romney is “25 percent better” organized than any of the other candidates, but after him, Huckabee and Brownback have the broadest organizations.

“Huckabee is coming along really good, and Sam Brownback is doing pretty well,” Hoffmann said. “They have to be two and three.”

A professor of political science at the University of Iowa, Peverill Squire, also said Huckabee and Brownback, two of the strongest social conservatives in the GOP primary, have emerged with stronger organizations than McCain, Giuliani and Thompson.

“There’s a huge gap between Romney and everybody else,” said Squire, who added that the other top-tier Republicans “have not put as much time and effort into the state as Romney.”

“That has left a vacuum and Huckabee and Brownback clearly see Iowa as critical,” he said. “They’ve spent more time and put together better organizations than the rest of the field.”

Huckabee and Brownback showed their organizational strength last month by finishing in second and third place in the Ames Straw Poll. Romney won the contest after spending heavily on the event.

The straw poll requires strong organization because it draws voters from around the state and campaigns that can transport many supporters to the event tend to do well.

In perhaps a telling sign of limited organization, McCain and Giuliani skipped the event. Thompson postponed the launch of his candidacy by two months, and also missed the forum.

Less than four months to go until the Iowa caucuses, the first official election of the 2008 primary, McCain, Giuliani and Thompson must weigh carefully whether to pour money into Iowa to avoid a damaging upset by Huckabee or Brownback that could knock them into fourth or fifth place.

“It would be devastating if any of the other candidates doesn’t finish in the top tier,” Squire said of McCain, Giuliani and Thompson. “You’ve got to look at McCain and maybe Thompson as well and wonder if they don’t have to put more resources in the states so they don’t risk falling.

“I think if you don’t finish in the top three it’s a serious threat to the viability of your campaign,” Squire said.
Campaigns share the view that placing in the top three is crucial.

“They say there are three tickets out of Iowa,” said Chip Saltsman, Huckabee’s campaign manager, who said his campaign has “hundreds of volunteers” in addition to four paid staff. Saltsman said he is in the process of hiring more staff.

He said the campaign’s infrastructure paid dividends during the straw poll because it allowed Huckabee to “get people out to Ames for one day when it was really hot.”

Arthur Sanders, chairman of the politics department at Drake University, located in Des Moines, said Giuliani and Thompson already are pouring more resources into Iowa to make up ground with Romney, Huckabee and Brownback.

“Giuliani and Thompson are playing catch-up,” Sanders said. “They’re frantically trying to put together organizations. Brownback and Huckabee have been organizing like Romney, although with less money, for a long time.

“They all want a top-three finish,” Sanders said.

Falling into fourth place “means they have to deal with stories that there are problems with their campaign,” he added.

The negative press coverage would come at a damaging time because the candidates would have only a few days to dispel it before New Hampshire and South Carolina hold their primaries.

Thompson has made South Carolina and Florida his top priorities, according to campaign advisers. But he recognizes the importance of doing well in Iowa.

“Both those states are going to be extremely important to us but not at the exclusion of some of the early states,” Thompson’s communications director, Todd Harris, said in reference to South Carolina and Florida.

Thompson is building up his campaign structure in Iowa but his spokesman said the real pressure to do well in the state is on Romney.

“Romney has invested significant resources in the state and it’s fairly well established that he needs to win and needs to win big in Iowa in order for people to view that investment as paying off,” Harris said.

“There’s no question that Romney has the largest organization in the state, but we think we have the best message.”
Giuliani’s campaign spokeswoman, Maria Comella, said her candidate is expanding his network: “Mayor Giuliani has a strong grassroots organization in Iowa that continues to grow. We’re confident of Rudy’s support in the state and our ability to compete in the caucuses.”

Hoffmann, the state Republican chairman, said organization is important but message is as important.

“You can be totally organized and if you don’t have the right message, all the organization in the world isn’t going to do a whole lot,” Hoffmann said.

Hoffman agreed with other Iowa experts that candidates must finish among the top three if they are to have any chance of winning the nomination.

 “You don’t necessarily have to win in Iowa; you have to be in the top three,” he said.

Ironically, Huckabee and Romney could wind up saving their rivals from a devastating fourth- or fifth-place finish by splitting the support of social conservatives.

“I think the real risk for both of them is they are organizing the same constituency,” said Sanders of Drake University, referring to socially conservative voters.

Sanders noted that in 2000 conservative Republican candidates Alan Keyes and Gary Bauer garnered 25 percent of the Republican vote but split it evenly enough to deprive either candidate of significant momentum.

Sanders said the key to success for Huckabee or Brownback will be to convince conservatives to support only one of them.

“If those really hardcore Christian conservative voters coalesce around a single candidate, that candidate getting a top-three finish would not be surprising,” Sanders said.