Rep. Ron Paul plans ad blitz, personal appearances in N.H.

Rep. Ron Paul (R), the quirky Texas congressman who has amassed more presidential campaign cash than Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz), plans a full-scale assault in New Hampshire, where he hopes Democratic support will give him the extra boost to grab a top-three finish in the upcoming primary.

Starting Monday, Paul will begin a $1.1 million television advertising campaign in New Hampshire, according to his aides. He has also planned four trips to the state in November, as well as an 11-day visit in December, anticipating that Secretary of State Bill Gardner may move the primary before Christmas.    

{mosads}Perhaps most surprising about Paul’s campaign strategy is that he’s hoping anti-war Democrats will boost him by a few percentage points by registering as Republicans to vote in the GOP contest.

“There has been a large push among Ron Paul supporters to have Democrats register as Republicans,” said Stephen DeMaura, executive director of the New Hampshire Republican Party. “There is a large effort to get Democrats to register as independents to vote in the Republican primary.”

The deadline for changing party registration passed on Oct. 12, but it appears there is a sizable number of anti-war Democrats supporting Paul.

Jim Forsythe, who helps run Ron Paul HQ, the candidate’s unofficial volunteer state headquarters, estimated that Democrats make up about 10 percent of the crowd at his events. Chris Lawless, another Ron Paul HQ organizer, said the number is between 5 and 10 percent.

What is certain is that Paul has an extremely active stable of volunteers who have organized almost entirely over the Internet. Paul opened his state campaign headquarters only this week. Yet he has still managed to win Republican straw polls held in Manchester and Strafford, as well as a poll held by the Coalition of New Hampshire Taxpayers.

A senior aide to a rival Republican candidate said that Paul’s libertarian message was “tailor-made” for the residents of New Hampshire, whose motto is “Live Free or Die.” 

His appeal among old-school conservatives and his impressive campaign war chest could make Paul a spoiler. He could surprise former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.), who is running in second place in national polls but has spent very little time in New Hampshire and was harshly criticized for skipping a state GOP-sponsored debate in September. Thompson has garnered about 10 percent support in recent statewide polls.

Paul had $5.4 million in cash on hand at the end of September, and his campaign claims to have raised $2.2 million online so far this month. His goal is to raise $4 million in October and $12 million by the end of the year.

Thompson, by comparison, had $7.1 million in hand at the end of last month, only $1.6 million more than Paul. And his campaign is more focused on Iowa, South Carolina and Florida.

Paul’s money, as well as the past success that populist candidates have enjoyed among New Hampshire voters, has prompted some Republican strategists to take Paul seriously despite his failure to gain traction in national polls. He has polled better in the Granite State, where a recent survey showed him drawing 7 percent support. 

Paul has drawn comparisons to Pat Buchanan, who won close to 40 percent of the vote in the 1992 GOP primary and upset the front-runner, former Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kan.), in 1996.

Andrew Smith, an expert in New Hampshire politics who directs the Survey Center at the University of New Hampshire, said Paul’s campaign is “working pretty well.” But he added that the Texan is struggling with a high unfavorability rating because he remains unknown to many voters, having made only a few trips to the state so far.

Smith said that Paul is pushing a libertarian, populist message like Buchanan did more than a decade ago when he compared his ’96 victory to a peasant uprising, thus earning himself the nickname “Pitchfork Pat.”

But Smith said the similarities with Buchanan stop there.

“Paul is nowhere near as charismatic as Pat Buchanan,” said Smith. “Buchanan got his support by being on every radio show he could get on and spending a tremendous amount of time in the state,” he said.

Paul’s campaign says he will make more of an effort to reach out to voters personally.

“New Hampshire has jumped to the top of our list, especially because of the potential Dec. 11 primary,” said Jesse Benton, Paul’s communications director.

A review of Paul’s fundraising shows that he has stirred enthusiasm among voters who have not given much money in previous election cycles. Many of the New Hampshire backers who had given more than $200 to his campaign had not donated in recent election cycles.
A few donors had also given to Democrats. Fox example, Harold W. Cadman of Hollis, N.H., has given $500 to Paul and $500 to liberal Democratic Rep. Dennis Kucinich (Ohio), who has taken a strong stance against the Iraq war. 

Kate Rick, Paul’s media coordinator in New Hampshire, said that there is an effort by supporters across the nation to persuade anti-war Democrats to vote in Republican primaries.

“This is a viral thing,” said Rick. “We have an active grassroots campaign running in all 50 states. They’ve researched election law and figured out what it would take to vote in Republican primaries and are sharing it with their neighbors, online, and at community events.”

Paul’s campaign website features prominently a presidential caucus and primary schedule that lists the deadlines for changing party registration in all 50 states.

“[GOP pollster] Frank Luntz has said on TV that the GOP base has shrunk from 34 percent to 30 percent of the voting population, driven by the war issue,” said Rick.  “When your base shrinks it’s extremely damaging to the party. Ron is the only candidate who can bring those people back.”