Alexander leaps forward

Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) appears to have emerged as the front-runner in the two-way race for a plum Senate Republican leadership position, aides and senators said Tuesday.

According to two people tracking the race, more than 25 senators in the 49-member conference have privately committed to backing the Tennessee Republican’s bid against Sen. Richard Burr (N.C.) to become chairman of the Senate Republican Conference. Thirteen senators were undecided before Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas announced Tuesday she would not seek the position, and her support appeared to be very slim, three sources said.

{mosads}“At this point, it looks like Burr would have to get every single one of the undecideds and would have to pick off a number of the ones committed to [Alexander] to even be competitive,” said a GOP aide, who requested anonymity to candidly assess the race.

But the outcome is still far from assured. “Any suggestions of the race being wrapped up are very premature,” another GOP aide said.

Hutchison’s decision to drop from the race ahead of Thursday morning’s vote leaves GOP members with contrasting candidates for the No. 3 spot in leadership. Alexander is nationally well-known and a moderate who works with members on both sides of the aisle, while Burr is a newer face in the Senate and a conservative stalwart.

Whoever wins could have a significant bearing on the direction of the conference. Heading the conference will be increasingly important in 2008 since the chairman will spearhead Senate GOP messaging amid a tough election landscape for Republicans. The position is also a steppingstone to the position of Senate Republican leader.

In private meetings, Alexander is telling his colleagues that he wants the GOP message to be one that “secures our base but also attracts independent voters.”

“Someone described me as having conservative principles and a moderate demeanor,” Alexander said Tuesday. “Maybe that’s an appropriate new face of the Republican leadership.”

Even though Alexander is in his first Senate term, he has long been a prominent figure within the GOP establishment, having run for the Republican presidential nomination twice and serving as education secretary under former President George H.W. Bush.

Alexander’s support comes from a number of the veteran members of the conference, including influential Sen. Bob Bennett of Utah, who has significant sway with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). McConnell says he is staying out of the race despite having backed Alexander for a separate leadership post last year.

Burr would offer a fresh face for the leadership, having just been elected in 2004 and having garnered strong support from the right flank of the party. He draws backing from a number of junior senators and fiscal conservatives in the conference, as well as some members with whom he served in the House. He has drawn admiration for his staunch opposition to proposals to expand federal spending, an issue that plays well with the Republican base.

Burr is “a conservative hero,” said Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), a fierce opponent of congressional earmarks.

Burr and Alexander each continued to court Republican members in private meetings Tuesday, and both planned to solidify their backing until the leadership elections Thursday morning. Several senators said Tuesday they would not make a decision until meeting with both candidates.

“I think it will be very close,” said Sen. John Ensign (Nev.), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who said he would make up his mind after meeting with the two candidates Tuesday afternoon.

The votes for leadership elections are difficult to handicap. They are cast in secret, which gives senators the freedom to vote their conscience regardless of their public or private commitment to a particular candidate.    

No one knows that more than Alexander, who appeared to be sailing to victory last year for the No. 2 position as minority whip until Mississippi Republican Trent Lott made an unexpected come-from-behind victory.

“I feel very good, [and] I’m gaining support each day,” Alexander said Tuesday. “But having had the experience of one Senate election, I’m making no prediction until after the votes are counted on Thursday.”

It was Lott’s surprise announcement last week that he would resign from the Senate at year’s end that has sparked this recent shakeup in the GOP leadership. Current conference Chairman Jon Kyl (Ariz.) is running uncontested for the minority whip position.

That left the door open for Hutchison to ascend from her No. 4 position as chairwoman of the Republican Policy Committee to the third-ranking spot. Hutchison, however, is considering leaving Congress early and running for Texas governor in 2010, which many sources believed undercut her bid to chair the conference.

On Tuesday, Hutchison denied that she had little support or that the governor’s race had anything to do with her decision not to seek the conference position, claiming she was never officially a candidate.

“I never made the decision to run,” Hutchison said. “I’m very happy where I am.”

Soon after Lott’s announcement, Alexander made a public statement saying he was seeking the No. 3 position for the conference chairmanship. But Burr has been more low-key, privately courting senators and making few public statements on the matter.

Burr was similarly mum Tuesday. “When it’s over, I’ll let you know,” he said when asked about the race, before darting into the Senate chamber.

“He remains committed to the race for conference chair,” a source close to Burr said. “As you expect in a race like this, he continues to work for each vote, and very hard.”

Lott has been suspected of backing Burr and of giving the senator several days’ notice of his resignation to allow him to lay the groundwork for the conference chair bid.

But Lott on Tuesday denied any involvement. “I don’t know where all that came from,” Lott said. “Sen. Burr is in my whip organization. He’s a fine guy. I think the world of him, and I also consider

Lamar Alexander a good friend. … I’ve not made any calls or any contacts for any of them.”