Local GOP upbeat on Indiana special, but party may help little

The death of Rep. Julia Carson (D-Ind.) on Saturday opens the door to a bullish local GOP in a special election, which is likely to be held early next year. But if a Republican hopes to pick up Carson’s Indianapolis-based seat, he or she will likely have to do so without the national party.

Recent trends in the district, including Mayor-elect Greg Ballard’s (R) win and Carson’s struggles against nominal opposition in recent years, suggest the Republicans have a chance to make the district competitive. The unknown and under-funded Ballard scored a huge upset last month against the two-term Democratic mayor of Indianapolis.

{mosads}Another special election, however, is not exactly what the cash-strapped national party needs right now.

After spending more than a half-million dollars combined on special election wins in Ohio and Virginia last week, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is already faced with a potentially expensive special to replace former Rep. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) in the Chicago suburbs in the coming months. And making a significant investment in Indianapolis, even though it is a relatively cheap media market, does not appear to be in the cards for a committee still in the red from the 2006 cycle.

Republicans and Democrats were hesitant to address publicly the political outlook so soon after the death of Carson, whose service was praised by both sides.

An Indiana Republican source who has worked in the district said local Republicans are excited about their prospects and starting to feel that they can return to the days when they controlled the Indianapolis area, but they also recognize the financial situation of the national party.

Republicans lost a special election by six points in another Democratic-leaning district in Massachusetts in October without the national party’s money.

“No one is looking to the national party to drop a lot of money in here to try and win this race,” the source said. “Everybody knows that it’s something we’ll have to do on our own, locally.”
The NRCC is taking a wait-and-see approach and is not expecting to get involved in the district, which went 58-42 for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004.

“The district is clearly a Democratic stronghold that would make for tough terrain, but it might be worth keeping an eye on,” said a Republican insider in Washington.

But despite national trends, that terrain has shifted toward the GOP recently.

In November, Ballard came out of nowhere to upset two-term Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson (D) 50-47. The city-county council flipped to Republican control, too, with the GOP winning three of four at-large seats.

In 2006, Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi (R) withstood a hard-fought reelection battle from a Peterson-backed candidate in a marquee race.

The congressional district excludes some of the more Republican areas of Indianapolis-based Marion County, but it encompasses most of the county.

Local Republicans also reference Carson’s lackluster numbers and her narrow 54-46 win against under-funded Republican Eric Dickerson in the Democratic wave in 2006. The last time Carson faced a well-funded opponent was 2002, when she was held to 53 percent.

“Those [2004 and 2006 efforts] were not campaigns that were very well run,” the Indiana GOP source said. “But even though they weren’t running campaigns that were all that hot, they were still doing OK.”

State Rep. Jon Elrod is currently the GOP standard-bearer after announcing last month that he would challenge Carson. The 30-year-old pulled off an upset of an incumbent Democrat in 2006, and Republicans say he has the kind of crossover appeal needed in the congressional district.

Brizzi is another top contender and is probably preferable to Elrod among Republicans, but he is not expected to seek the seat. Neither is Dickerson, who lacked the support of local GOP donors last year and spent only $75,000 on his race.

Probation officer Wayne Harmon (R) has already declared he is running.

Marion County Republican Party Chairman Tom John said Elrod has assured him he will run in the special election. He called Elrod a strong campaigner but suggested the special election could test his fundraising ability.

“Obviously, the amount of money you have to raise for a congressional seat … is much different,” John said. “One of Jon’s big challenges will be raising that kind of money in the amount of time that it takes.”

The Democratic field is expected to be much broader and more contentious.

Peterson, who was seen as a rising star before his loss, has said he is very unlikely to run for Congress.

Carson’s son, Andre Carson, won his first term on the city-county council last month. If he runs for Congress, he has the backing of former Rep. Andrew Jacobs (D), who held the seat for three decades and helped Julia Carson win it in 1996.

Another top potential candidate is Marion County Sheriff Frank Anderson. Ballard and the new Republican-controlled council are seeking to take control of the police from Anderson and put it under the new mayor.

Marion County Treasurer Michael Rodman announced in November that he would run if Carson did not run for reelection. Other candidates mentioned include Center Township Trustee Carl Drummer, former state party Chairman Robin Winston, former state Health Commissioner Woody Myers and state Reps. Carolene Mays and Greg Porter.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee declined to comment.

Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) has yet to set a date for the special election and likely will not do so until at least next week.

“The governor has indicated that he’s not even going to contemplate any dates for a special election until all respects are paid for Congressman Carson,” said Daniels spokeswoman Jane Kowski.

Daniels has wide latitude in setting that date, but it cannot be earlier than 60 days after Carson’s death.

The parties will choose their nominee by convening caucuses of precinct committeemen in the district.

The general election primary is in May, but that might be too long for the district to go without representation. Daniels cannot appoint a caretaker.