Katrina flight sparks Dems’ interest in Baton Rouge seat

Post-Hurricane Katrina population shifts have increased the chances that Republicans will pick up a Senate seat this year in Louisiana, but Rep. Richard Baker’s (R-La.) potential retirement means those changes could cost them one in the House.

Local politicians began to prepare this week for a possible special election as Baker weighs whether to retire for a job leading a hedge fund lobby. The contest they wage could help answer some of the many questions that remain about the political impact of Katrina.

{mosads}Regardless of Baker’s decision, which could come as early as this week, Democrats will look to contest the seat, and they got their candidate Tuesday.

State Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) officially entered the race with a press conference in Baton Rouge, the seat of the 6th district and one of the top recipients of post-Katrina migrants.

An August report from the Louisiana Recovery Authority reported that about 30,000 people from the southeastern portion of the state most affected by Katrina have since moved to four Baton Rouge-area parishes. Those parishes comprise the majority of the 6th district.

Overall, most estimates put the total Baton Rouge migration since Katrina struck in 2005 at about 70,000.
Baker did not face a difficult race in 2006, and the gubernatorial race in 2007 was not close, so it has been difficult to glean many concrete conclusions about political shifts in the area.

Many of the migrants are poor or black, leading analysts to gauge that those who left the state will hurt Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu’s reelection chances in November. But the intra-state shifts of those voters could be a boon to Cazayoux or any other Democrat who wins the party’s nomination, said Pearson Cross, a political science professor at the University of Louisiana-Lafayette.

“Baton Rouge, for people who are around it, seems to be a community that really is changing in a lot of ways,” Cross said. “It appears to be an area in transition as it becomes kind of the dynamic engine of Louisiana.”

Others are more skeptical about the impact.

Greg Rigamer is president of nonpartisan political consulting firm GCR & Associates, which has undertaken extensive analysis of the population shifts in post-Katrina Louisiana. He said many voters who migrated to Baton Rouge have since relocated back to New Orleans and that the ones who remain are likely to have a negligible political impact.

Rigamer, who has worked for Landrieu, Gov.-elect Bobby Jindal (R) and Sen. David Vitter (R), said about 5,500 voters who were registered in Orleans Parish changed their addresses to East Baton Rouge Parish by May 2006. That number has since fallen to about 3,500.

“It’s all speculative; you can pretty much take whatever arguments you want on it,” Rigamer said. “The impact of a displaced voter is consistently overestimated.”

Baker announced Friday that he was in negotiations with the Managed Funds Association to become its next president. He would have to retire from Congress early if he accepts a position.

Cazayoux, who has long been in talks with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, opted not to wait for that decision.

“It’s time for a leader who is focused on investing in education, creating better jobs, making sure Louisiana’s working families can afford heath insurance and bringing our troops home with honor,” Cazayoux said Tuesday. “I will bring my record of effective leadership and strong Louisiana values to Congress.”

Cazayoux is a powerful member of the state House who was in line to become Speaker prior to Jindal’s election in October. He would be difficult for any Democrat to beat, and at least one top potential contender, Baton Rouge Mayor-President Kip Holden, apparently has no interest in running.

State Republican Party Chairman Roger Villere said Cazayoux is the kind of conservative candidate the Democrats will have to run in order to win the seat.

Villere said the district was competitive even before Katrina, citing Holden’s 2004 defeat of a GOP mayor, but he downplayed the effect Katrina will have on the area’s partisan balance.

“It’s going to be a race you’re going to have to work very hard at to get the message out,” Villere said, adding: “[Baton Rouge] does have a few more Democrats, but I don’t think it’s switched overwhelmingly Democratic.”

Among the Republicans who have shown interest at this early stage are former Baker Chief of Staff Paul Sawyer, former Senate candidate Woody Jenkins and Secretary of State Jay Dardenne.

Sawyer was the first name to surface as a possibility. Jenkins is a former state legislator who fell to Landrieu by half a percentage point in 1996. Dardenne has also been weighing a Senate run.

Democrats haven’t challenged Baker much during his 11 terms in Congress, but they have come close the few times they have.

In 1998, he faced Democrat Marjorie McKeithen, the granddaughter of a governor and daughter of a secretary of state. Baker survived the well-funded challenge, 51-49.

Since then, he has won at least two-thirds of the vote against nominal opponents every cycle.
The district voted 59 percent for President Bush in 2004, up from 55 percent in 2000.

Republicans have consistently accused Democrats of being overambitious in their targeting of GOP-held seats, and National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Ken Spain said this is another example.

“After the bruising defeat that [now-Gov.] Bobby Jindal just handed the Democrats in Louisiana, one would think they would refrain from making grandiose predictions,” Spain said.