Lobbyists don’t expect a quiet year

Conventional thinking holds that not much happens inside the Beltway when people are running for president outside of it, but there are reasons to believe this election-season legislative session may be less somnolent than usual.

Business lobbies are already trying to add targeted tax cuts to a stimulus package that the Congress, driven by a bipartisan fear of a faltering economy, looks likely to pass in the first months of the year.

{mosads}Holdover issues relating to farm policy, climate change, energy taxes, Medicare payments and an overhaul of the Consumer Product Safety Commission will also add to the congressional workloads, as will annual spending bills that Democrats will try especially hard this year to get done on time in order to leave the public with an image of efficient legislating before the election.

Voters would be wise to remember the advice of legendary UCLA basketball coach John Wooden, who counseled players not to confuse activity with achievement. Yet the two are likely to meet in at least a few instances before lawmakers leave town to campaign in earnest.

President Bush and the Democratic congressional leaders both sent signals last week that they expect to find a compromise on a stimulus package worth at least $100 billion.

As the economy teeters on the brink of recession, business groups like the National Retail Federation and the National Association of Wholesalers-Distributors (NAW) are pressing for quick action.

“The nation’s economy is in a slowdown,” according to a resolution adopted by the National Retail Federation Board of Directors last week. Congress and the president should “act quickly and in bipartisan fashion to enact targeted economic stimulus legislation,” the board said.

“Targeted, timely and temporary” is the mantra NAW has adopted as it lobbies Congress for action through groups like the Tax Relief Coalition, said Jade West, who directs lobbying at NAW.

Wholesalers and distributors support specific economic aids like bonus depreciation and breaks for small-business expensing. Mostly, though, the group wants action without offsets, and to help speed the process it has chosen to forgo one of its big priorities: extension of the Bush tax cuts.

“We are interested in seeing something get done,” West said.

Other groups have more detailed wish lists. The National Federation of Independent Business, for example, advocates increasing small-business expensing, expanding the standard home office deduction, speeding depreciation for business construction costs and other tax fixes, according to the group’s website.

There is some history of major bills being passed in an election year. The broad campaign finance reform bill passed in midterm election year of 2002, for example. Generally, the year that follows a presidential campaign, when voters’ moods are more easily discernible, is more productive. That was the case in 2001 when President Bush succeeded in swaying lawmakers in both parties to support his signature education policy, the No Child Left Behind law.

Global warming is a topic almost certain to be facing the next president. Prognostications by energy lobbyists about the chances for a global warming bill this year range from unlikely to nil.

And yet there is a nagging worry in some circles that President Bush, who has been a standard-bearer to those who oppose greenhouse gas emissions caps, will switch sides and seek some common ground with Congress.

One or more of the following reasons underlie that fear: the president will look to add to his domestic legacy; as he embarks on an extensive travel schedule during his final year in office, the president will eventually be worn down by the constant stream of complaints from other world leaders who want the United States to act; the president will decide that a global warming bill passed under his watch will be less intrusive than a measure passed under a Democratic administration.

Lobbyists said a global warming bill is likely to first pass the Senate. Initial activity in the House is likely to be limited to the release of white papers on the topic from the Energy and Commerce Committee. Energy lobbyists are preparing to attack government models that suggest major cuts in greenhouse gas emissions can be made without doing major damage to the economy.

Congress could also pass a major farm bill this year, although there is still a chance lawmakers will be unable to find agreement, either among themselves or with the administration, and will be forced simply to extend the current version.

With the Senate coming back into session this week, a farm bill conference could begin but most lobbyists anticipate it would be months before a bill arrives on the president’s desk.

Veto threats loom over both House and Senate versions of the bill. A number of differences between the two chambers need to be ironed out as well, such as a roughly $5 billion permanent assistance program only in the Senate draft and about $65 million more in funding for specialty crop block grants in the House version.

Healthcare is a perennial congressional issue, but this year’s usual debate over Medicare reimbursement rates could cut deeper than normal. In the drug bill Congress passed in 2003, lawmakers mandated that the White House propose a roadmap for the program’s fiscal future when spending arrived at a specific level, which it has.

At some point in the coming months, and possibly as early as the State of the Union address, Bush will begin laying out his principles for Medicare reform.

The Democratic Congress will have to respond — as will the healthcare industries that make billions off the program. It is more likely that Mike Gravel will win the presidency as a write-in candidate than it is that Congress will adopt major Medicare reform legislation this year. But lobbyists are paid handsomely to keep clients abreast of all manner of congressional activity, even if actual achievement lies further off.

Jeffrey Young and Kevin Bogardus contributed to this report.