GOP’s campaign therapist tells party — It’s not so bad

Rep. Tom Cole (Okla.) doesn’t hold a degree in psychiatry, but he has taken on the role of therapist to the depressed House GOP conference.

And the counseling he gives to donors, would-be candidates and colleagues is simple and consistent: Things aren’t as bad as they seem.

{mosads}Despite a bank account that only recently turned black, poor presidential and generic polling numbers and several outstanding recruiting holes, Cole, who is chairman of the Republican National Congressional Committee (NRCC), seems remarkably at ease for someone under such pressure — even as he sips his fifth cup of coffee at 9 a.m.

With only 285 days until his political skills are officially, and perhaps ultimately, evaluated, Cole knows he has to keep his patients calm and boost their confidence.

“The expectations game is not one I worry about a great deal,” Cole said in a wide-ranging 90-minute interview with The Hill on Friday. “My biggest problem is not money or candidates, it’s Republican morale.

“There is no reason to be this down. I’ve been in this building when we were a hell of a lot weaker than this.”

A veteran operative with an extensive hard drive of historical analogies between his ears, Cole continues to face criticism and the odds head-on.

GOP donors and supporters have not yet summoned the enthusiasm or sense of the possible needed to turn the hope or dream of retaking Congress into reality. In September, Cole and House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) were forced to make public peace after reports surfaced that Boehner had demanded staffing changes at the NRCC.

Those changes haven’t happened, and Cole made a point to praise his staff effusively at several points during the interview. He praised Boehner and said getting input from others is important, but he asserted that the committee is in his hands.

“Honestly, I know this business better than anyone else,” Cole said. “I’m going to make the final call in this area, and believe me, I’ll be living with the consequences the day after the election.”

The refrain from Cole is that the GOP is still in much better shape than it was for decades before taking power in 1995. Only 16 seats need to flip to put the Republicans back in power — a bigger minority than they have had in the last half-century.

But this argument is lost on the people who matter most, so Cole keeps plugging away.

He said there are three keys to getting enough money to be competitive this year: success on the House floor, the presidential nominee, and the attitude of members, who are his top fundraisers.

“I think [2007] was a year of consolidation and reflection, and we established Republican morale and cohesion,” Cole said. “[Next] is a year where we need to begin talking to the American people. There is a rebranding exercise going on.”

Rebranding will begin this weekend at a leadership retreat in West Virginia, but will play out largely in a muddled GOP presidential race now hitting what is perhaps its most important phase.

Cole, who began the cycle talking about retaking Congress immediately after losing it, now talks more about merely gaining seats. But the optimism he displayed early on is still there.

He said he won’t lose for lack of money.

“I will bet [Democrats] start with a pretty big lead in the spring and hold it through the summer,” Cole said. “All of a sudden, it will start narrowing, and we will be like a football team with the wind at our back in the fall, and our candidates will have that as well. I may be wrong about that, but I think that’s the rhythm.”

Asked about Democrats’ criticism of his committee’s recruiting, Cole was direct: “Believe me, we’ll have more and better challengers than they do, and the reason is simple. … The real difference is that we’re fighting mostly in Republican seats.”

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Doug Thornell pointed to more than 40 Democratic challengers and the holes that remain for Republicans in a number of top targeted districts.

He also referred to Cole’s candidacy for an Appropriations vacancy, which the lawmaker refused to talk about Friday.

“Tom Cole’s been so busy using the NRCC to get a seat on the Appropriations Committee and cheerleading about their dismal year, he’s forgotten to do a race review,” Thornell said, adding that Democrats have the issues on their side: “No amount of Tom Cole spin will produce winds strong enough to change that.”

One area where Cole’s optimism is looking prophetic is Iraq, which he suggested wouldn’t be as powerful an issue in 2008 as it was in 2006. It’s hardly off the table, but a reduction in violence and apparently imminent recession have pushed the war from the No. 1 spot in the polls.

Cole was less prescient about the NRCC’s debt retirement, which he had said he hoped to retire by the spring or early summer of last year. The committee’s year-end report will be the first that shows more cash on hand than debt from the $15 million tab Cole inherited.

He’s not counting on financial help from the Republican National Committee (RNC), which gave the congressional campaign money last cycle but will probably focus on the party’s presidential nominee.

Cole differs from many of his colleagues over which Democrat would help his committee this year.

While others say Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) would turn out dollars and votes because she is polarizing, Cole said she’s the more conservative, better candidate, and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) isn’t a plausible commander in chief.

“Put it this way, Dan Quayle was a heck of a lot more qualified to be either vice president or president than Barack Obama in terms of governmental experience,” Cole said. “If [Clinton] is the nominee, we’re in a very close, polarizing race, but I think we’re in a very close, polarizing political race whoever it is.”

Obama spokeswoman Jen Psaki responded: “It is ironic that the party that led us into the disastrous war in Iraq feels they are qualified to judge foreign policy credentials.”

Excerpts of interview with NRCC Chairman Tom Cole

Q: Will Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.) run for reelection?
A: I don’t know. … Certainly, our chances of holding that seat hinge dramatically on what he does. He will make his own decision. The best thing I got going is, number one, that he’s sat in my chair before [as NRCC head], so he’s somewhat sympathetic, and number two, that Tom has not lost his desire to contribute as a public servant at all.

Q: Did you urge ethically embattled Rep. John Doolittle (R-Calif.) to retire?
A: I wouldn’t tell you that. [Laughing] You’re allowed to pitch it. It’s my choice whether I swing or not.

Q: Are there any good options in New York’s 19th district, where you lost a top recruit in businessman Andrew Saul?
A: We’re still recruiting so, yeah, there are, if we can get somebody. The nature of the district means we can. We lost Andrew Saul, which was a terrific disappointment to us, but we have not written that off.

Q: What are your thoughts on the Democratic presidential nominating contest?
A: One thing I love the best about this primary lately is all the arguments that Bill and Hillary Clinton are making against Obama are arguments I can pick up and use. ‘He’s too inexperienced. He may say this, but he’s really voted [this way].’ It’s great.”  [Obama] is a good candidate, and there’s something magic about getting 17,000 people to show up in Illinois in the rain and the snow. … I know they’re talking fantasy when Barack Obama’s saying I can bring Republicans and independents in. There ain’t no Republicans joining Barack Obama; that’s just not going to happen.

Q: What are your thoughts on the Republican nominating contest?
A: I am not one of these people who think a brokered convention is just a wonderful thing. If they get their act together, they have a nominee by the end of February, first of March. … I don’t think, if you look like you can’t get your party matters settled, you’re in a very strong position to say you can handle America.

Q: Is there any chance you’ll do this job again next cycle?
A: I really don’t think that far ahead in this business. … There’s a lot of guys that could do this committee. I’d start with [Reps.] Phil English [Pa.] and Pete Sessions [Texas]. … I don’t know if he’d ever want to do it, but [Rep.] Jeb Hensarling [Texas] would be brilliant at this committee. We became friends when he was running the senatorial committee and I was over here. … [Rep.] Kevin McCarthy [Calif.], among the younger guys, [Rep.] Patrick McHenry [N.C.]. I can see about six to eight very plausible alternatives.