Downturn fuels Nov. fears

 A U.S. economy teetering on the verge of a recession has many Americans concerned about their jobs – including a number of United States senators.

Nine months before the 2008 elections, the economy has emerged as the top issue on voters’ minds, and both parties are working in earnest to agree on a stimulus package intended to stem the downturn.

{mosads}But even as they smile together for pictures and boast of crossing the aisle, party strategists are bracing for the political fallout and positioning themselves to deflect a backlash at the polls.

Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.), who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said both sides could find success by coming to the center and passing a consensus package in the coming weeks.

“Whoever positions themselves to solve the problem is going to win,” Ensign told The Hill. “It just depends on whether you’re the person that’s in the middle that’s trying to solve the problem or whether you’re just somebody who’s trying to throw bombs and be partisan; I think the American people are sick of that.”

Whatever lawmakers accomplish will be scrutinized by the public and could have a major impact on a number of close races. In the last month, the economy shrank in 23 states, including Louisiana, Oregon, Minnesota and New Hampshire, according to new data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia; Maine’s economy grew only marginally.

GOP candidates are the most likely to feel the pressure as four of the five tightest re-elections in the Senate feature Republican incumbents: Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Gordon Smith (R-Ore.), John Sununu (R-N.H.), and Norm Coleman (R-Minn.). Mary Landrieu (D-La.) is the fifth.

After attacks by Democrats last year for stalling much of the new majority’s agenda, Senate Republicans returned to Washington this week with a pledge to work toward a bipartisan stimulus package. The Senate Republican Conference met for more than an hour Wednesday with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson behind closed doors, probing him with questions that they later said showed that they were in touch with the concerns facing their constituents.

“My sense of the Republican senators’ questions was that we care about the impact that the economic slowdown is having on middle-income families who are experiencing difficulty with gasoline prices, with healthcare costs and with the housing slump,” said Sen. Lamar Alexander (Tenn.), chairman of the Senate Republican Conference.

Republicans believe that the bipartisan tone could position the GOP as the side willing to change the tenor in Washington, and protect vulnerable members from being attacked for stalling action on Capitol Hill.

“There is no reason we can’t work together in a bipartisan way to get things accomplished,” said Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.).

But they are not the only ones betting on that strategy.

A recession would not create risks at the polls for Democrats, according to Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chairman. He said it would make more voters convinced that change is needed in Washington.

“What we have found is that the cry for change helps Democrats, incumbent and non-incumbent,” Schumer said.
Landrieu, perhaps the most vulnerable Senate Democratic incumbent this year, said that an economic downturn does “not necessarily” create a dangerous environment for incumbents.

“As a political consequence, I think that bolsters the Democratic argument that the current Republican leadership – not all Republicans – has not only mishandled some international matters but they have not necessarily planned well for the economic expansion at home,” Landrieu said. “I think actually the trend lines are good for Democrats, although you don’t want to be happy that people are losing their homes and foreclosures are up and people are worried about the economy.”

Some Democrats believe that GOP incumbents could be in a precarious position no matter what they achieve this year, saying that cannot overcome years of the Bush administration policies that led to the current climate.

Following an event with Democrats arguing that the economic downturn is hurting cities nationwide, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak said in an interview that the “Bush-Coleman strategy of cut taxes for the rich has not helped the economy.”

“I think every bit of bad news that came out of Washington is bad news for a senator who has marched lockstep with George Bush through one disaster after another,” Rybak said.

Coleman’s campaign fired back and criticized the mayor’s record on taxes, saying the senator has a “well-established record of reaching across the aisle to get things done for Minnesota, including convincing his colleagues to drop their opposition to the farm bill, which is essential for Minnesotan farmers.”

Rebecca Fisher, a spokeswoman for the NRSC, said the downturn would ultimately help the GOP in November.

“I think it’s remarkable that the Democrats have spent the past year proposing tax hike after tax hike and then the moment the economy needs a boost the first solution they turn to is tax relief.  Voters will recognize this for what it is and turn to Republicans in November,” Fisher said.