In Florida, two paths to the front

Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney are locked in a tight battle for Tuesday’s critical GOP primary in Florida, but their strengths in the race are reflective of the paths they took to get there.

For McCain, a recent string of high-profile endorsements and key early wins would seem to provide a narrow advantage a day out. Romney has long enjoyed a stronger in-state organization that could prove to be the difference in a race this close.

{mosads}Sid Dinerstein, chairman of the Palm Beach GOP, said Monday that he has been surprised to see a two-man race emerge — “and not the two men we would’ve thought.” The RealClearPolitics average of polls in the state shows a dead heat, with neither candidate enjoying an edge.

Dinerstein, who has stayed neutral in the race, said both men enjoy the support of high-profile Florida Republicans, a factor often more important to big states than the sort of grassroots organization that is valued in smaller states, like Iowa and New Hampshire.

Romney last year secured a significant number of officials from former Gov. Jeb Bush’s (R) inner circle.

Those officials, behind the strength of Romney’s immense resources, were quick to build a campaign infrastructure in the state — beginning with 11 staffers in February 2007 and building to 45 this month. Aides to Romney in the state said that organization, and its get-out-the-vote machine, can be decisive in a race all sides acknowledge is neck and neck.

Florida has always been part of the campaign’s early-state strategy, a Romney aide based there said Monday, and as such, Romney has “definitely invested the resources to do very well here” organizationally.

But McCain has enjoyed a significant amount of free media in the Sunshine State coming off his win in South Carolina and leading up to the surprising — and significant — endorsements from Sen. Mel Martinez (R) and Gov. Charlie Crist (R).

Martinez and Crist know the blueprint to victory in the state. They also enjoy immense popularity with crucial Republican voting blocs that could make the difference for McCain.

For McCain, they couldn’t have come at a better time. The Arizona senator was forced to abandon his efforts at building an elaborate operation in Florida last summer after his campaign announced financial troubles. The focus shifted to smaller, less expensive states, a move that proved strategic for the senator, who, after being left for dead, came back to win both New Hampshire and South Carolina and is gaining momentum heading into Tuesday’s contest.{mospagebreak}

Charlie Black, a senior adviser to McCain, acknowledged Monday that Romney has been able to spend a lot more money in the state than the senator. But Black said McCain’s early wins and endorsements have allowed him to “catch” Romney in the Sunshine State.

Black said McCain and Romney are going down to the wire, but without Romney’s paid staff and “millions of dollars on TV, it wouldn’t be close.”

Romney has clearly spent far more time advertising on television than has McCain. The Nielsen Company — which tracks media campaigns — said on Monday that since March 2007, Romney has run 4,475 ads in the state. By comparison, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has run 3,067 and McCain has run just 470.

While Romney has had staff on the ground for more than a year, McCain’s operation — which is largely driven by volunteers — only returned to the state in the last two weeks, one Republican strategist said, giving Romney a “definite advantage.”

Both of the campaigns have volunteers working the phones feverishly as they try to turn out votes.

“Everybody’s scrambling to turn out their favorable voters,” Black said.

Some of those voters, however, have already made their preference known. Florida allows for early voting, and state officials said over the weekend that more than 400,000 Republican voters have taken advantage.

Turnout might take care of itself, though, as Florida voters will also be going to the polls to vote on a property tax ballot initiative, a factor state officials think will drive Republican turnout.

Sources in the state say Giuliani will likely do well with the early voters, as he has had the state to himself over the last month while ballots were cast and his rivals were battling in the earlier-voting states.

An aide to Giuliani downplayed the notion that Romney has a superior ground operation, and the former mayor has said repeatedly in recent days that he will win Florida.

For a campaign that now appears to be based almost entirely on a win there, failure to do so would appear “to be a monumental strategic error,” Dinerstein said.