Edwards eyes a brokered convention

Former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) has his sights set on playing kingmaker at the Denver convention in August, one of his most senior campaign officials hinted Monday.

While dismissing suggestions that this implied Edwards had accepted he was out of contention for the nomination, Deputy Campaign Manager Jonathan Prince said the candidate would probably get enough delegates to play a decisive role in tipping the Democratic nomination under party rules.

{mosads}Party insiders could also give Edwards the nomination at a brokered convention if they judged him more electable in a match-up against GOP front-runner Sen. John McCain (Ariz.). “At a brokered convention, all bets are off,” said Prince.

Prince told reporters in a conference call that in “a worst-case scenario” Edwards would control 20 to 25 percent of the Democratic delegates heading into the convention. He predicted that Sens. Barack Obama (Ill.) and Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) would each have 35 to 40 percent of the delegates, well short of half the 4,049 needed to win the nomination.

The race could leave Obama and Clinton with nearly the same number of delegates because complex rules would divide delegates evenly among candidates who win more than 30 percent in the congressional districts that make up each state.

Spokesmen for the Obama and Clinton campaigns did not respond to requests for comment.

Many political observers believe that if Edwards had the power to pick the Democratic nominee and could not grab the nomination for himself, he would throw his support to Obama. During a memorable exchange at a Democratic debate in New Hampshire this month, Edwards sided with Obama as a fellow candidate of change and drew a sharp contrast with Clinton, whom he has labeled a candidate of the status quo.

Prince argued that since nearly 800 of the delegates are so-called superdelegates and thus not bound by the results of any state primary or caucus, a candidate would have to get 60 percent of all the delegates in play to be assured of the nomination.

Prince said that Obama or Clinton would have to win nearly 80 percent of the vote in many congressional districts around the country in order to win the nomination outright — a difficult achievement considering how competitive the race has been so far.   

Edwards’s campaign manager, David Bonior, said on a conference call with reporters, “We have a great shot to pick up a lot of delegates.”

But he refused to say on the conference call how Edwards would wield his delegates: “We’re not going to talk about how we’re going to use our delegates.”

Stephen Wayne, a political science professor at Georgetown University who specializes in presidential primary politics, said Edwards could help decide the nomination. {mospagebreak}

“If Obama and Clinton come out even after Super Tuesday and Edwards had 50 delegates, Edwards could make a difference if [superdelegates] are split,” said Wayne. “Edwards is not going to drop out if he can have an impact.”

At the Democratic convention this August, delegates will be allowed to vote freely even if they are already pledged to a candidate, Wayne explained. But he expected that Edwards’s delegates would do his bidding.

{mosads}Wayne said that Edwards’s delegates have been “hand-picked” because of their loyalty.

“That loyalty would probably extend to the convention, though Democrats have a rule that would not impose loyalty,” he explained.

Wayne, however, predicted that either Clinton or Obama would probably wrap up the nomination before the convention, but conceded “anything is possible.”

The scenario of a brokered convention could unfold in the GOP race, though analysts consider it less likely because most of the Republican primary states allocate all delegates to the winner. Unlike at the Democratic convention, Republican candidates would control the delegates pledged to them and could give support directly to a rival.

If either former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) or McCain, the candidates leading in the delegate count, fail to open up a commanding lead before the convention, one of their rivals could have a decisive influence.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) has seven delegates to his name and could capture more by winning in Southern states where evangelical Christians make up a large percentage of the electorate. While many states allocate all their Republican delegates to the statewide winner, several do so proportionally, opening a door for Huckabee or former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani to pick up more votes.

In Alabama, for example, if no candidate wins more than half the vote, each receives delegates provided he wins at least 20 percent. In Arkansas, where Huckabee can expect a strong performance, delegates are also assigned based on voting percentages if no candidate wins with more than half. In Florida, delegates go to any candidate who wins one of the state’s 25 congressional districts.

Giuliani is likely to pick up delegates in Florida and could also win New York and New Jersey depending on his performance Tuesday in the Sunshine State [The Florida Republican Party will give all of its delegates to the winner of the state’s primary. The party originally planned to give delegates to candidates who carried the most votes in individual congressional delegates].

If Huckabee or Giuliani stays in the race long enough to be able to wield delegates at the GOP convention in September, yet has no chance of winning the nomination, many political analysts expect either would support McCain. Despite the competitive primary, both candidates have maintained cordial relations with McCain while fighting bitterly with Romney.