Retirements — and then there were 28

Rep. Tom Davis’s (R-Va.) retirement announcement on Wednesday is a stinging blow to a party that has had five House members reveal over the last week that the 110th Congress will be their last.

Davis’s decision is perhaps their biggest loss this cycle out of 28 vacancies — given his swing district, campaigning acumen and policy experience. President Bush won Davis’s district 50-49 percent in 2004.

{mosads}The departing Republicans have now eclipsed the number of Democrats who left the House the cycle after they lost power in 1994. According to the House historian, 25 Democrats left office in 1995 and 1996.

A giddy Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee issued a release Wednesday asking, “Who will be the 29th House Republican to retire? Will [Thursday’s Federal Election Commission] reports provide any new clues?”

National Republican Congressional Campaign Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.) praised Davis’s work in the House and at NRCC while expressing confidence the seven-term lawmaker’s seat will stay in the GOP’s hands: “The people of northern Virginia have come to rely on Republican representation in the U.S. House of Representatives, and I believe they will continue to support a congressman who fights for lower taxes and a stronger economy.”

Stuart Roy, an ex-GOP aide who is a partner at Prism Public Affairs, said Republicans should focus on the presidential nominee and allow members who have decided to end their tenure in Congress to go.

“It’s fruitless to chase the bullfrogs in an attempt to keep them in the wheelbarrow,” he said.

“The best thing we can do is have a presidential nominee in a week to give our members some comfort that the political wind will be at their back and they will want to remain in Congress.”

Dan Mattoon, Davis’s former deputy when the legislator served as chairman of the NRCC, said it is premature to write the obituary for Republicans in the 2008 election cycle.{mospagebreak}

“In 2000 we ended up with a net gain of one open seat,” he said. “We don’t know exactly what the top of the ticket is going to be so it’s hard to judge [the outcome of 2008].”

Davis’s exit will also touch off a battle for his top GOP spot on the Oversight and Government Reform Committee. Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.), a centrist who infuriated Republican leaders for his push for campaign finance reform, was passed over for the post by Davis following the 2002 election.

{mosads}Meanwhile, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) said Wednesday that he intends to run for the slot as well. It is unclear if other panel Republicans will vie for the position.

Shays and Issa both chair subcommittees of the Government Reform Committee, but Issa has less seniority. Shays has served 11 terms and Issa four. Rep. Dan Burton (R-Ind.) ranks behind Davis in seniority on the panel, though Burton has previously chaired the committee. Issa, who is chairing the NRCC’s March fundraising dinner, fell short in his bid for a leadership position following the 2006 election.

 “I’ve worked hard on this committee, but for many years less than Chris has,” Issa said. “I’ve taken to it, I like the opportunity I’ve been given, I want to be back in the majority and, yes, I’d like to be full committee chairman.”

Shays narrowly won his reelection race in 2006 and Democrats are once again targeting him.

Shays threatened in September to not run for reelection unless he received a guarantee from House GOP leaders that he will be Davis’s successor on the panel in the next Congress.

In his statement, Davis said he was confident that the seat would remain Republican and assured constituents that the move is a sabbatical rather than a retirement from public life.

Despite passing on a Senate run this year, Davis has suggested running against freshman Sen. Jim Webb (D) might be an option in 2012.

“I want to emphasize that I am not closing the door on future public service, but after 29 years in office, winning 11 elections, I think it is time for a respite,” Davis said in a statement Wednesday.{mospagebreak}

While declining to reveal his future plans, Davis said he would likely return to the private sector.

Davis is likely to have a number of options on K Street. His experience as the former chairman of the NRCC has given him political expertise that is often sought out by companies, associations and firms.

{mosads}But high-tech companies or trade associations could be particularly interested, given his experience with tech issues as a member from a tech-heavy district.

“Tom Davis has been the ultimate champion for technology in Congress,” said Phil Bond, the president and CEO of the Information Technology Association of America.

Joining Davis in his departure this week are Reps. James Walsh (N.Y.), Dave Weldon (Fla.), Kenny Hulshof (Mo.) and Ron Lewis (Ky.).

In 2005, the National Federation of Independent Business offered Davis its top job, at a reportedly $1 million annual salary. Davis instead opted to run for reelection.

Davis’s seat might be the most Democratic-leaning district being vacated, as Northern Virginia continues to shift dramatically in the Democrats’ favor.

His exit should lay the groundwork for an intense Democratic battle between former Rep. Leslie Byrne, whom Davis beat to win the seat, and Fairfax County Board Chairman Gerry Connolly, who formed an exploratory committee a month ago and has raised $160,000 for the race.

Connolly is likely to officially enter the race shortly and appears to be the preference of influential Democrats.

“Congressman Davis’s retirement reminds us that a new day is dawning in Northern Virginia,” Connolly said, adding that he’s been humbled by the support he’s received.

 The GOP picture is less clear. Businessman Keith Fimian has very quietly put together more than $650,000 for the race, including raising $125,000 in the fourth quarter and loaning his campaign $325,000 in total so far.

Other Republican candidates mentioned include U.S. Maritime Administrator Sean Connaughton, Prince William County Board Chairman Corey Stewart, state Sen. Jay O’Brien and state Del. Tim Hugo.

David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report said Byrne-versus-Connolly would be a “titanic battle.” The primary will be held in June.

 “Fimian would face a huge obstacle getting known in a district that is overwhelmed by the Washington media market,” Wasserman said. “That’s his chief challenge.”

A Republican lobbyist said seats such as the one Davis is vacating will pull the focus away from Republican challengers and force them to focus only on retaining incumbents and open seats.

Jim Snyder contributed to this article.