‘Once the election is over, game is on’

Some House Republicans spent the days before the 2006 election jockeying for position in anticipated leadership races.

This year is different.

{mosads}While another wave is expected to wash away many House Republicans on Tuesday, the leadership landscape is less clear than it was two years ago, as members have kept their campaigns close to the vest.

By Election Day 2006, Reps. Joe Barton (R-Texas) and Mike Pence (R-Ind.) had indicated they would challenge then-Majority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) for the top Republican post in the lower chamber.

Barton later dropped out of the race, and Boehner soundly defeated Pence.

Many of the circumstances have changed from two years ago.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is going deeper into red territory and more House GOP members are fearing for their political lives — especially with the possibility of a huge turnout vote for Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.).

Aides said that members trolling for GOP leadership votes amid the toxic political environment would be viewed poorly by conference members.

However, Republican leaders and their staff have not been lulled into any false sense of security and are acutely aware that when the results are in, the leadership challenges could come swiftly.

“Once the election is over, the game is on,” said a former GOP leadership aide.

Only Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Texas) has made it official that he will seek a seat at the leadership table in the 111th Congress. Sessions announced in September that he would seek to chair the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

NRCC Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.) defeated Sessions and Rep. Phil English (R-Pa.) to head up the House GOP fundraising operation after the 2006 elections. Cole has said he knows he won’t be asked back if House Republicans are soundly defeated on Tuesday.

The lack of early public challenges to the top four positions in the Republican Conference has not stopped staff and members from speculating privately about what it would take to topple the leadership team led by Boehner and Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.).

Republicans have scheduled a conference on Nov. 17, Boehner’s birthday, where they will discuss possible shifts in leadership.

Leaders and potential leaders will be judged by some rank-and-file members on how they handled the unpopular $700 billion financial rescue bill.

Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-Mich.) was the only member of elected leadership to vote no.

At the center of the leadership speculation is Blunt’s deputy, Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.), who is thought to be the only member who could mount a strong challenge to Boehner or Blunt.

Over the past two years, Cantor, like other leaders, has donated millions of dollars to vulnerable members and to the cash-strapped NRCC. And like Boehner and Blunt, Cantor spent September and October crisscrossing the country to appear with over 20 candidates in endangered seats.

Cantor also created the “Young Guns” program that funneled over $2 million to House GOP candidates.

He has stayed closer to his home state in the final days of the 2008 election to campaign for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

Cantor’s staff has emphatically said that the Virginia Republican is focused only on Nov. 4 and has not been talking about moving up the ranks.

Boehner’s spokesman denied reports that the Ohio Republican polled members about his leadership post in October.

“Rep. Boehner is completely focused on helping our team do as well as we can on Election Day,” said spokesman Michael Steel. “While he has naturally kept in contact with members since Congress adjourned, he has not made any calls regarding leadership races.”

Steel added, “We’ll deal with whatever happens after Nov. 4 after Nov. 4.”

And while speculation has swirled that Blunt may step aside in order to avoid a potentially divisive race, Blunt spokeswoman Antonia Ferrier dismissed the chatter as an “inside Washington leadership parlor game.”

“Right now, Mr. Blunt is focused exclusively on helping his House colleagues,” Ferrier said.

“There will be a time for this discussion, but a day out from Election Day is certainly not it,” she added.