Dems cannot stop Andrews bid for Senate

Rep. Robert Andrews (D-N.J.) said Wednesday that he will challenge Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.) in a June primary, setting up the only high-profile challenge to a Senate incumbent so far this cycle.

Andrews’s eleventh-hour maneuvering this week prompted a vigorous pushback from the Democratic establishment. On Wednesday evening, he announced that he would enter the race, apparently with hard feelings over that pushback.

{mosads}“Today’s newspapers carry stories of ‘threats of retribution’ against citizens who wish to engage in such a campaign,” Andrews said in a statement. “It is time that someone stood up to this kind of politics and stood for positive change in our country.”

Andrews’s posturing became public Monday, just one week before the filing deadline, and drew immediate opposition from Gov. Jon Corzine (D) and each of the other seven Democratic members of the state’s congressional delegation. They have since worked to cut off any inroads the congressman might make into North Jersey, which would be key to a viable primary challenge for the South Jersey congressman.

Seventh district congressional candidate and state Rep. Linda Stender (D) became one of the most recent officials to jump to Lautenberg’s defense Wednesday, joining six of her potential future Democratic House colleagues in pledging to run on his ballot line in the June 3 primary. Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) is also supporting Lautenberg.

But with some positive signs appearing, including a prominent North Jersey political figure endorsing Andrews on Wednesday, the congressman decided to take the plunge.

“The people of New Jersey deserve to choose their senator,” Andrews said. “With respect for Sen. Lautenberg and his public service, I will offer them that choice in this historic year of change.”

Several key battles will play out over the next two months in New Jersey’s hyper-localized political scene, especially in three North Jersey counties — Bergen, Essex and Hudson — in which Andrews must garner significant support. The majority northern part of the state has dominated statewide politics for years, holding both Senate seats and the governor’s mansion.

Much of Lautenberg’s supposed vulnerability is based upon his age, 84, with a majority of respondents in some polls saying they would like to elect someone else. In a similar situation in 2006, Rep. Steve Case (D-Hawaii) unsuccessfully challenged 82-year-old Sen. Daniel Akaka (D-Hawaii) in a primary.

Andrews’s quest looked more and more difficult in the hours after his efforts went public. Several influential North Jersey officials balked at his candidacy, and a poll showed Lautenberg 35 points ahead.

“South Jersey has made tremendous strides in recent years in picking up Democratic legislative seats,” said Democratic strategist Julie Roginsky. “But having said that, Andrews really needs support from one or two of the major North Jersey counties in order to make this a real race. Right now, it’s not clear that he’s got that.”

In a last-ditch effort to keep Andrews out, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), which is supporting the incumbent, leaked on Wednesday afternoon partial results of a two-night poll of the primary match-up, with Lautenberg leading 57-22.

Andrews was unfamiliar to 56 percent of voters. He will have just two months to change that in two of the most expensive media markets in the country.

He had a formidable $2.4 million cash on hand at the end of 2007, while Lautenberg had $4.3 million and has the ability to plug in millions more from his personal fortune.

Besides the congressional endorsements, Newark Mayor Cory Booker and Jersey City Mayor Jerramiah Healy jumped on board with Lautenberg. Perhaps more important, Healy is also the Democratic chairman in Hudson County.

In Bergen County, backroom dealing by Rep. Steve Rothman (D-N.J.) successfully prevented Democratic chairman Joseph Ferriero from endorsing Andrews on Tuesday, as had been expected.

Ferriero had still not made a decision by press time Wednesday.

The endorsements from the congressional delegation were particularly important because they included pledges to run on the same line as Lautenberg, regardless of a county party endorsement. So even if a county endorses Andrews, the members will appear on a separate line on the ballot with Lautenberg.

A source in the New Jersey Democratic delegation said Andrews’s colleagues were upset, especially after Andrews previously stood with them in backing Lautenberg. The state only has three elected statewide officials, making the Senate seats in high-demand for Andrews’s House colleagues.

“There was a press release with all seven of us, including Andrews, praising Sen. Lautenberg and the work he’s done for New Jersey,” the source said. “It is a situation where there are some sore feelings over it.

But even as things looked bleak for Andrews early Wednesday, some signs of life appeared, as he landed one of the major power players in Essex County, North Ward Cultural Center executive director Steve Adubato.

Pat Politano, who ran Andrews’s 1997 gubernatorial bid and his 1996 House reelection campaign, said the path is tough for Andrews, especially given that he had much of Hudson County for the former campaign and still lost to future Gov. Jim McGreevey (D).

“The political math hasn’t changed, the question is, has Rob changed?” Politano said. “Once you get north of the Driscoll Bridge, he needs some organizational help.”

The big question in New Jersey is why Andrews waited so long. Some suggested he wanted the race to himself and feared declaring earlier might invite other candidates to split the anti-incumbent primary vote.

Andrews’s office did not respond Wednesday to interview requests.

Despite his age, Lautenberg’s favorability remains high — 71 percent among Democrats, in the DSCC poll — and polling in New Jersey often shows incumbents to be more vulnerable than they actually are.

Republicans have struggled to recruit for the race, most recently settling on businessman Andrew Unanue. He will face state Sen. Joseph Pennacchio and Professor Murray Sabrin in the primary.