Dems drawn to waiting-game approach as Bush era nears end

Congressional Democrats are increasingly weighing running out the clock on President Bush’s term as they face a deadlock in negotiations on a slew of outstanding issues.

Sensing they might get more from the next administration, Democrats are signaling little willingness to give the Bush White House what it wants, warning that issues might be pushed to the next Congress, where Democrats appear likely to enjoy larger majorities in both chambers.

For its part, the administration recognizes its time is running out and seems more willing than ever to give ground in order to ensure Bush’s fingerprints get on legislation.

The shifting dynamic appears to be playing out in negotiations over changes to an electronic surveillance law, a five-year overhaul of farm policies, a five-year reauthorization of the Federal Aviation Administration, free trade agreements, No Child Left Behind reauthorization, a patent reform measure, a plan to create a path for generic biotech drugs, a global warming bill, and most — if not all — of the 12 annual appropriations bills.

“They are clearly trying to decide whether to move issues, hold on to issues, use them to stoke voter discontent or hype things that each party can use to its advantage,” said Bruce Josten, executive vice president for government affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “This is a Congress that I think is more into delay of game, if you will, than racing to legislate.”

Democrats insist they want to complete bills this Congress, like a major wartime supplemental spending bill that is now under development. But they argue if Republicans and the White House impede their efforts, they will be left with no choice but to wait until next year. That feeds into their election-year strategy of urging voters to send more Democrats to Congress to move their agenda.

“Our strategy is to get the job done now, and I hope that we can get some Republican cooperation,” said Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the majority whip. “And it’s very clear what [Republicans] are trying to do — to avoid giving us any record of achievement, and to avoid facing any vote that might be controversial.”

Winning on legislation might not be easier next year if Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) wins the White House. It would add even more tasks to what will already be a busy first year of the new administration.

Republicans say if Democrats punt until next year, the majority party will have amassed a paltry record running the 110th Congress.

“Voters didn’t send us to take a vacation just because it’s a presidential election year,” said Sen. Lamar Alexander (Tenn.), the chairman of the Senate Republican Conference.

Emily Lawrimore, a White House spokeswoman, said since Democrats continue to “obstruct legislation,” it makes it “hard to tell a difference between the Democrats’ current efforts and their potential wait-and-see strategy.”

Nadeam Elshami, a spokesman for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), said “despite the overheated rhetoric from the White House, the needs are too great for this to be politicized.”

On some of these issues, Democrats are likely to bring the bills forward for a vote but are unlikely to give in to Republican demands for major revisions, making it likely a bill would either get vetoed or blocked in the Senate because of a partisan stalemate, according to Democratic aides, senators and lobbyists.

That appears to be the case with a long-awaited bill to control global warming after Bush — under heavy pressure from businesses — said last week he supports halting emissions by 2025. That is far weaker than the bill headed to the Senate floor in June, which would stop emissions by 2012 and slash U.S. emissions across the economy 66 percent lower than 2005 levels by 2050.

That position makes it even more likely Democrats will wait until one of the presidential candidates, all of whom support caps on greenhouse gases, takes office next January.

“Whoever is the next president will clearly have a more proactive position than Bush,” said Frank O’Donnell, head of the environmental group Clean Air Watch.

The Bush administration has also ceded ground in the negotiations over the farm bill.

The administration insisted that it would not sign a short-term extension of current farm policies if Democrats could not reach an agreement last Friday. But after Congress sent a one-week extension to the president last week, Bush signed it into law.

The administration has reluctantly sent signals that it might accept a more costly farm bill, with House and Senate conferees trading proposals between $6 billion and $12.5 billion higher than the baseline over 10 years.

Even though the stalemate over the bill has been mainly due to an impasse between House and Senate Democrats, the administration’s positions against any tax increases to pay for new farm programs might complicate efforts to find spending offsets. That means a Democratic president might be more amenable to new taxes — such as on offshore companies — to pay for new farm programs.

Similarly, the FAA bill has been stalled amidst an intra-Democratic dispute over whether user fees should be levied to pay for reforms of the air traffic control system. With problems facing the airline industry, Democrats may try to bring the bill to the Senate floor before Memorial Day.

But Bush has also opposed labor union provisions for air traffic control workers, making Democrats consider whether to wait for a new president to deal with that issue.

On electronic surveillance, Bush initially refused to negotiate with Democrats unless they agreed to provide retroactive immunity for telecommunications firms participating in the government’s wiretapping program. But now that Democrats are signaling that they might wait Bush out, administration officials have come to the table to negotiate.

The patent reform bill also might wait a year because it pits pharmaceutical companies, which are typically aligned with Republicans, against information technology companies.

Steve Elmendorf, a Democratic lobbyist who represents the IT companies in the fight, said even though passing the bill is quite possible this year, it might be easier to get a deal next year with larger Democratic majorities.

Despite the risks, Democrats say the public understands their predicament.

“I think people are getting a more filled-in understanding of what the Congress can do and what the Congress cannot do,” Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said.