Faces a hard landing back in the Senate

With her historic bid to become president on life support, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is facing a return to her day job as the junior senator from New York who wields a relatively limited amount of power.

If she bows out of the race against Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), Clinton would come back from the campaign trial as a rank-and-file and junior senator serving on four committees, including the Armed Services Committee and as chairwoman of a subcommittee overseeing toxic waste issues.

{mosads}Despite speculation that she might run for majority leader, Clinton has little chance of securing that spot in the Senate next year, according to Democratic aides, senators and party insiders.

“We already have a majority leader,” said Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.), an Obama supporter, referring to Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.).

The remaining leadership spots are filled, and in interviews, none said they were planning on stepping down next Congress. There also remains the possibility that Clinton might position herself for a run at the New York governor’s mansion, be picked as a running mate for Obama or even win a specially crafted position among Senate leadership.

At 60, Clinton is slightly younger than the average age of a senator, which is 63, meaning she probably could advance to a leadership spot if she continued her career in the Senate. But that likely will not happen next Congress, people familiar with the Senate say.

Clinton’s office dismisses the talk of her next career move, saying her intent is still on occupying the Oval Office beginning next January.

“Sen. Clinton looks forward to working with [an] expanded Democratic majority under Leader Reid, and having him and Speaker [Nancy] Pelosi [D-Calif.] by her side when she signs legislation to expand children’s healthcare, issues the order as commander in chief to end the war, takes the necessary steps to rebuild our economy and much more,” spokesman Philippe Reines said Tuesday.

But her double-digit loss in North Carolina and narrower-than-expected win in Indiana on Tuesday is intensifying pressure for her to quit the race since she lacks a clear path to the nomination.

If she doesn’t decide to drop out, enough superdelegates – party leaders and elected officials – might side with Obama by the beginning of June to effectively force her out of the race, several senior Democrats said Tuesday.
That means she might be forced to evaluate her next step soon.

Reid has given no signs of relinquishing his leadership position next Congress, even though running the Senate might make his 2010 reelection bid even tougher.

When asked Tuesday if he thought Clinton would serve as majority leader next Congress, Reid said curtly: “Ask her.”

If Clinton were to challenge Reid, the move would be unusual. Of the approximately 50 senators who have run for president in modern times, only one has returned to run for majority leader, according to the Senate historians office.

{mospagebreak}That was Hubert Humphrey in 1977, who mounted an unsuccessful bid for leader against Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.). After Humphrey lost, Byrd created a special position for him as deputy president pro tempore of the chamber, according to associate Senate historian Don Ritchie.

One person close to Reid says the majority leader “likes to keep his enemies close,” and speculates that he might create a special leadership position for her if he senses a threat to his leadership position.

Reid remains popular within the Democratic conference, meaning a challenge to his reign might be futile. If he were to step down from his leadership post, several more senior members would likely vie for the position, according to Democratic aides, including the senior senator from Clinton’s home state, Democratic Conference Vice Chairman Charles Schumer (N.Y.); Obama’s biggest Senate supporter, Majority Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.); and Obama supporter Sen. Chris Dodd (Conn.).

{mosads}Schumer and Dodd both declined to comment Tuesday on the prospects of such a scenario.

Durbin, an avid Obama supporter, wouldn’t say whether he expected Clinton to run for any spot in leadership, but said she would still “make contributions” through her “important committee assignments.”

Building support for either plum committee chairmanships or leadership positions requires both seniority and friendships in the upper chamber.

Jenny Backus, a Democratic strategist who is unaffiliated with either campaign, said how Clinton exits from the campaign could affect her relations on Capitol Hill and her ability to advance in the caucus.

“I think that how she handles this next step in this nomination fight will determine both her political legacy and President Clinton’s political legacy,” she added.

Clinton started serving in the Senate in 2001, making her one of the more junior members in the upper chamber.

If Senate endorsements for her candidacy are a measurement, her popularity is mixed within the conference. She has won the support of 13 senators, compared with Obama’s 14, and 22 Democrats remain uncommitted.

“Do the Democrats want Hillary Clinton as their majority leader? I can’t imagine Sen. Dodd saying that or Chuck Schumer saying to the junior senator from his state, ‘Leapfrog me,’” said Eric Herzik, chairman of the political science department at the University of Nevada-Reno. “I think it’s a little bit of a flaw to say Hillary Clinton is beloved in the caucus and can deliver the goods.”

One of the pet initiatives of her career has been healthcare, and she sits on the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. But next Congress, when Democrats are expected to mount a push to expand access for coverage, Kennedy, the chairman of that committee, along Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.), will likely take the lead role in that fight.

There already has been chatter in Washington that Clinton could run for president again in 2012 should Obama lose the general election. Her second term in the Senate expires that year.

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), an Obama supporter, said there are “certain limitations” in trying to advance quickly in the Senate, but said she could succeed in “bringing people together” and “getting other legislation passed.”

Even though the race has been fiercely contested, Durbin said Clinton would be able to repair any strained relations within her conference.

“It is uncomfortable when you have the competition for the presidency within your group of 100 senators,” Durbin said. “And there is some tension and stress involved in that, but time will heal those wounds.”