Analysis: House GOP hits new low, faces bleak Nov.

The sky is falling on House Republicans and there is no sign of it letting up.

The GOP loss in Mississippi’s special election Tuesday is the strongest sign yet that the Republican Party is in shambles. And while some Republicans see a light at the end of the tunnel, that light more likely represents the Democratic train that is primed to mow down more Republicans in November.

{mosads}The third straight House special election loss in three conservative districts this year is a clear indication that the GOP brand is turning off voters and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is in disarray.

In the wake of the devastating loss, the first question facing House Republican leaders is whether they will keep Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) as NRCC chairman. Speculation has been rampant that Cole would be asked to step down should Republicans lose in Mississippi, and on Tuesday that chatter intensified.

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) will be under tremendous pressure to do something dramatic after the trio of losses. Boehner has publicly clashed with Cole over staffing and lackluster fundraising numbers but despite their differences, their political futures are tied together.

Significant gains by House Democrats this fall would likely lead to Boehner and Cole losing their leadership posts. Travis Childers (D), who narrowly defeated Greg Davis (R) on Tuesday, will push the Democrats’ total in the House to 236 members. With six months to go until the elections, political analysts and observers are suggesting Democrats could reach 250 in the next Congress.

Some Republican conference members have criticized Boehner for not effectively managing Cole.

GOP strategists and lobbyists have also questioned Boehner’s leadership. One Republican source noted that, after Boehner called for staffing changes at the NRCC, Cole refused and triumphed in the showdown.

Former Republican leaders, such as Reps. Dennis Hastert (Ill.) and Tom DeLay (Texas), would not have backed down, the source said. Boehner, in fact, later rewarded Cole with a promise to be on the Appropriations Committee next year.

Republicans downplayed the special elections in Illinois and Louisiana, saying they were plagued with sub-par candidates but there is little they can spin on the loss in Mississippi. Despite a desperate last-minute fundraising drive and an appearance by Vice President Cheney they still fell short.

Cole last week admonished members who had not donated to the Mississippi effort, saying they “should be ashamed” for not contributing. Despite those remarks, critics say Cole has not led the NRCC with the sense of urgency that is needed — especially with the Republican Party still experiencing a significant hangover from the 2006 elections.

Boehner, meanwhile, has tried to keep his members calm in the midst of the storm. In early April, Boehner said, “I think we are going to gain seats this year. Period.”

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) does not see it that way. He issued a warning to Republicans that, unless the party changes course, the GOP is headed for disaster in the 2008 elections.

Cole acknowledged that he was concerned about a potential loss when recently asked how the outcome could affect his chairmanship: “You always worry … We have had challenges in all of these races and it is not helpful to lose Republican seats and I don’t take it lightly.”

The cash-strapped NRCC spent over $1 million on the Mississippi loss in a district that, prior to Sen. Roger Wicker’s (R-Miss.) ascension to the upper chamber in January, was seen as a ruby red seat.

David Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union, said the loss could also create a chilling effect on K Street donors who could take the results as a sign that “the future is Democratic and help further dry up funds for Republicans.”

K Street insiders fault the NRCC for not reaching out to them more. A few lobbyists have said they were regularly called by the NRCC for donations in previous cycles but have not been urged to give in 2008.

Cole has cited morale as one of the biggest challenges that faces his colleagues this cycle.

In a January interview with The Hill, Cole said, “My biggest problem is not money or candidates. It’s Republican morale. There’s no reason to be this down. The worst is behind us.”

The NRCC chairman has been dealt a bad hand, as scandals have continued to hit the GOP.

Rep. Rick Renzi (R-Ariz.) has been indicted and married Rep. Vito Fossella (R-N.Y.) was recently arrested and subsequently admitted to an affair and fathering a child out-of-wedlock.

In February, the NRCC announced that it was the victim of an internal accounting fraud and that the losses could total in the millions on dollars.

There have been GOP victories this cycle. House Republicans retained GOP seats in Ohio and Virginia following the deaths of two members in 2007, but they were expected to win those races. House Republicans were expected to retain all, or at least two of the special elections for the seats formerly held by Wicker, Hastert, and Richard Baker (R-La.).

Someone needs to be held accountable for the losses, GOP sources say, and that could be Cole. Removing him would require a vote by the House Republican Conference.

Longtime GOP strategists could not recall a time when an NRCC chairman was ousted in the midst of a cycle.

“It’s too late,” a Republican lobbyist said, adding that few, if any, Republicans want to take over the beleaguered NRCC.

A GOP strategist differed, saying, “It can’t get any worse.”

Cole told The Hill in January that the buck stops with him: “At the end of the day, I know who is going to be held accountable for what goes on over here….I know this business better than anyone else. There aren’t a lot of other guys in Congress who can run their party’s campaign. I am going to make the final call.”

The NRCC and Boehner’s office did not comment for this article but, after the Mississippi race was called, Cole said in a release he was disappointed with the loss. He added, “Republicans must undertake bold efforts to define a forward looking agenda that offers the kind of positive change voters are looking for.”

Boehner stated that the result “should serve as a wake-up call to Republican candidates nationwide. As I’ve said before, this is a change election, and if we want Americans to vote for us we have to convince them that we can fix Washington.”

Democrats, yet again, basked in their triumph. Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), who heads the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said, “Congratulations to Travis Childers on his stunning victory. His victory has sent a political thunderbolt across America tonight.”

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said, “For the third time this year, Democrats have turned a red seat to blue, proving that Americans across our country want real solutions and reject Republicans' misleading and negative attacks.”