Rep. Boehner backtracks on ’08 prediction

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) is backing off his bold prediction that Republicans will gain seats this November.

A confident Boehner told reporters in April that once voters heard the Republican message, the GOP would put on a strong showing in the fall.

{mosads}“I think we are going to gain seats this year. Period,” he said at the time.

Six weeks and three special-election losses later, a spokesman for Boehner attempted to tamp down expectations.

“This is going to be a better year for Republicans than people think,” Boehner spokesman Michael Steel said on Monday. “We hope to pick up seats — that’s the goal.”

Boehner’s April 3 statement at a Christian Science Monitor-sponsored breakfast raised many eyebrows in GOP circles because House Republicans are defending many open seats and are lagging behind Democrats in campaign cash.

Setting expectations in politics is a fine art. In 2006, then-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) refused to predict that Democrats would win control of the lower chamber.

Two years later, political analysts say that Democrats will grow their House majority by at least eight to 10 seats this fall, but DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) will only say Democrats will expand on their majority.

In 1998, House Republicans lost five seats, a result that was viewed as a huge win for Democrats following the impeachment of then-President Bill Clinton. Following that election, House leaders — including Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and Boehner — were replaced.

Boehner’s prediction in April was one of the only times the Republican leader has gone out on a limb during a tenure that has been marked by seemingly safe, non-controversial decisions, according to critics of the GOP leader.

“Boehner's leadership has been lacking,” a GOP lobbyist and strategist said.

Boehner last year reportedly called for staffing changes at the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), but none happened after NRCC Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.) refused to make them.

After the party’s devastating loss last week in a Mississippi special election, Boehner did not directly answer the question about whether Cole would stay on at the NRCC. With some of his GOP colleagues calling for quick and decisive action, Boehner lauded a 20-page strategic memo crafted by Rep. Tom Davis (Va.), a former NRCC chairman.

It wasn’t until five days after the Mississippi loss that Boehner provided clarity on whether Cole would be ousted.

“He’s staying,” Boehner said on “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” on Sunday. “And we know the kind of changes that need to be made in order to help our members and help our candidates go out there and do their best in a very difficult environment.”

Boehner said he met with Cole late last week to discuss those changes, but the minority leader’s office declined to detail them on Monday.     

Some GOP strategists and lobbyists have privately questioned Boehner’s leadership, claiming he has opted repeatedly not to ruffle feathers. Those moves have ultimately undercut his authority and hampered the House GOP, they say.

Since becoming the top Republican in the House, Boehner has rarely broken with President Bush, whose approval ratings have consistently been in the 30s over the last couple of years.

Not surprisingly, House Republicans have recently distanced themselves from Bush on the farm and housing bills. Boehner, consistent with the White House, voted against both high-profile measures.

Boehner did oppose the 2007 student loan bill, which Bush vowed to veto but later signed into law. He also voted against the energy bill that was passed late last year.

Like many of his GOP colleagues, Boehner has repeatedly stood by Bush on the Iraq war.

Having been elected minority leader in early 2007, Boehner was generally not blamed for the Democrats’ huge gains in 2006. Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) did challenge him for the top House GOP slot after the 2006 elections, but Boehner won easily.

If Democrats pick up a slew of seats this fall, however, Boehner will shoulder much of the blame and may not survive another leadership challenge.

Boehner was applauded by his colleagues in the spring of 2007 after he convinced Rep. John Doolittle (R-Calif.) to resign his seat on the Appropriations Committee after the FBI raided his Virginia house. Doolittle later announced he was not seeking reelection, a race that Republican leaders feared they would surely lose if the Californian had sought a 10th term.

At the time, GOP members praised Boehner for enforcing his pledge to take members who are under an ethical cloud to task.

Yet that praise faded when Boehner failed to block a Republican steering committee decision to fill the seat with Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.). Calvert allegedly helped facilitate the passage of an earmark to benefit him financially — a charge Calvert has strongly denied.

Still, the move triggered grumbling from members that leadership had once again ceded the moral high ground.

As the party leader, Boehner has five votes on the 27-member steering committee.

“Congressman Calvert answered every question asked of him by the steering committee,” Boehner said on May 9, 2007. “It was a candid and frank conversation, and the members of the committee were satisfied with his answers.”     

When Rep. Jo Bonner (R-Ala.) was chosen to fill now-Sen. Roger Wicker’s (R-Miss.) former seat on the House Appropriations Committee, House conservatives and taxpayer watchdogs said the appointment of the earmark-friendly member was the wrong message to send.

Anti-earmark groups had pressed for Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) to fill Wicker’s seat. A Flake appointment would have upset many Republican appropriators but also sent a clear message to the GOP base about earmarks. Cole was also seeking that seat and, amid media reports about rising tension between the two leaders, Boehner issued a statement praising the NRCC head and promising him a spot on the powerful committee next year.

Boehner’s office disputes that Boehner has not been bold in his decisionmaking.

Steel contended that Boehner, who has never requested an earmark, and the House Republican leadership have made huge strides to curb earmark spending. However, while the earmark moratorium has been adopted as an official House Republican position, GOP members are still requesting earmarks.

On April 15, Boehner appealed to members at a closed-door meeting of the GOP conference to sign onto the moratorium.

“To those who believe the status quo on earmarks is fine, I challenge you: How can we sustain that position in the fall when our presidential nominee, [Sen.] John McCain [Ariz.], has vowed to veto any bill that contains earmarks?” he said, according to talking points obtained by The Hill.

“To those who believe House Republicans should have a self-imposed earmark moratorium right now, I challenge you: How will we enforce it? This conversation is critical to the future direction of our conference, and to our prospects in November. Please devote some serious time to thinking about it.”