Primary spotlight shifts

There are contentious primaries Tuesday in Oregon and Kentucky. They’re just not between Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Barack Obama (D-Ill.).

Democrats are battling for the right to face Sen. Gordon Smith in Oregon and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, while Republicans are looking for a candidate to replace retiring Rep. Darlene Hooley (D-Ore.).

{mosads}But the biggest battle is in Oregon, where Smith (R) and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) began their campaigns early this cycle in a torrent of ads. That air war has weighed heavily on the already pitched Democratic battle between state Rep. Jeff Merkley and activist Steve Novick.

A SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KATU-TV in Portland and released Monday evening showed Novick leading by three percentage points, whereas he trailed last week in the same poll.

Novick has run a spirited primary campaign and has an interesting personal story — he graduated from Harvard Law School at age 21 and is less than 5 feet tall with a hook for a left hand.

Merkley has received the quiet backing of DSCC Chairman Charles Schumer (N.Y.).

Both Smith and the DSCC insist their early advertising, which totals about $800,000, was instigated by the other side, but the buys also appear to betray a preference about whom they would like to be the Democratic nominee.

The main target of Smith’s approximately half-million dollars’ worth of ads has been Merkley, who he has called out for allegedly breaking a pledge not to raise money during the legislative session.

Smith also called out Novick in an early ad, labeling him a big-government liberal, but that tack likely wouldn’t harm Novick’s primary campaign in a blue state.

The DSCC has responded with at least $300,000 in ads and phone calls to Democrats defending Merkley, whom it recruited and has been backing behind the scenes. Merkley also received $90,000 in start-up support from the DSCC and has been hooked up with big-dollar donors.

The DSCC has used Smith’s emphasis on Merkley to defend its early support for the Democrat and continues to insist that it’s not officially picking sides. Smith’s campaign likewise said it was merely responding to Merkley’s ads.

“The focus has been Merkley because Merkley has been the candidate who attacked Gordon Smith,” said Smith spokesman R.C. Hammond, pointing to an ad Merkley ran against Smith.

Hammond added that his boss “has pledged that he is going to run an aggressive campaign, and he’s certainly demonstrating that.”

The ads follow a pattern of early advertising for Smith, who also went up early in his 2002 reelection campaign against Secretary of State Bill Bradbury. But that situation was different, as the ads went up just after the primary and Bradbury didn’t face a tough Democratic challenge.

{mospagebreak}Merkley said Smith’s pre-primary ads are telling of whom he wants to be the Democratic nominee.

“Gordon Smith’s involvement is unprecedented in Oregon — trying to knock out the Democratic candidate who will be most formidable against him in November,” Merkley said. “Obviously, it shows how terrified Smith is of facing me.”

Novick has less money than Merkley and has a more liberal record — two things that figure to work against him in a general election and make experts and some Democrats skeptical.

{mosads}The former Justice Department lawyer, who has gained some national attention for his quixotic campaign, has polled worse than Merkley against Smith. But a Rasmussen poll from last week showed his deficit is only slightly bigger than Merkley’s: Merkley trailed by three, while Smith led Novick by six.

“In Oregon, there’s very much a maverick streak that Steve speaks to,” said West Coast Democratic consultant Jim Ross, who has worked to unseat Smith in the past and built an anti-Smith website for the DSCC this cycle. “There’s a history of people voting for candidates who they might disagree with but they find compelling personally.”

Novick said the assumption about his general election prospects is unwarranted, especially given that Merkley needed to be “propped up” by the DSCC ads.

Should he win the primary, though, Novick said he would join forces with the DSCC.

“Of course,” Novick said. “They had a very good track record last cycle, and they made this one little mistake in this primary. That’s understandable, and I’m sure that they’ll be highly effective allies against Gordon Smith.”

If 2006 is any example, Democrats should be able to pick up the pieces and run competitively no matter who is the nominee.

Last cycle the DSCC supported Montana Democrat Jon Tester after he defeated committee-recruited candidate John Morrison in the primary. Tester later beat Sen. Conrad Burns (R).

In another race in Virginia, the DSCC actually endorsed Democrat Jim Webb in the final week of his primary. Webb won the tough campaign and later beat Sen. George Allen (R).

Committee spokesman Matthew Miller said it is prepared to back Novick should he win the primary.

“We believe that no matter who the nominee is, Gordon Smith is vulnerable and this is a race that Democrats can win,” Miller said. “And we will support the nominee in every way we can.”