Fate of Iraq spending bill lies in Sen. Reid’s hands

After spending weeks behind closed doors negotiating a sprawling emergency war spending bill, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) realized the final shape of the package now rests on the numbers.

Reid will examine the margins of Thursday’s critical test vote on an emergency-spending package to determine whether wholesale revisions are needed or small tinkering is enough to approve billions of dollars for domestic programs, according to Democratic senators and aides.

{mosads}With the package tying together two of the biggest issues on the campaign trail, the Iraq war and the economy, Reid and Democrats are under enormous pressure to push through a bill they can tout to voters back home without caving in to the demands of President Bush and his would-be Republican successor, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.).

Both men have demanded that the bill be free of domestic spending so the money can be spent on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Knowing they cannot win passage of a timetable withdrawing troops from Iraq, Democrats have insisted on adding a slew of popular domestic spending initiatives in exchange for about $165 billion for the wars.

Reid has already moved to scrub the bill of measures Republicans planned to oppose, including temporary visas for illegal immigrant farm workers. But some other controversial items remain in the bill, including one that Republicans say could help abortion clinics get access to nominally priced drugs.

Nevertheless, Reid has tailored the bill to make it as politically difficult as possible for Republicans to oppose, with the inclusion of a provision to delay Medicaid rules that have drawn strenuous opposition from a number of states, a 13-week extension of insurance for the rising number of unemployed and an expansion of educational benefits for veterans.

Senate Republicans see the political calculation and acknowledge the tough spot they’re in.

“They’ve been pretty smart and put a lot of things that we obviously would like to support on an individual basis on the bill,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a member of Senate GOP leadership.

As a result, Cornyn and other Republicans signaled that they may let the bill clear Congress and advance to Bush’s desk, a move that they say would force Democrats to negotiate closer to their terms but could also help the Senate GOP deflect blame for holding up funding for troops.

Cornyn and several other senior Republicans signaled that the GOP was working to make sure they had enough votes to sustain a veto, which requires 34 members, and were not as sure whether there were 41 members who would deny cloture Thursday on the domestic funding package.

“I think they are looking at 34 votes to sustain a veto. That’s probably the big number,” Cornyn said.

“We want to move the process forward as quickly as we can, and we fully expect there will be a veto,” said Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.).

Should Democrats muster more than 60 votes but less than a two-thirds veto-proof majority, smaller changes might be needed to pick off a few more Republican votes.

“The more they massage this, who knows, it may make it easier to vote no, but it may make it harder for some people to vote no,” said Sen. John Thune (S.D.), chief GOP deputy whip.

A number of Republicans in tight reelection races are already weighing whether to lend their support, as are some who have favored projects in the must-pass bill.

“I’m looking at it right now, and I haven’t decided,” said Sen. Gordon Smith (R-Ore.), who faces a tough path to reelection in November.

But if Republicans stand unified in opposition and deny Democrats 60 votes, Reid may be forced to jettison much of the funding for domestic programs included in the sprawling measure. That could open him up to attacks from the left for giving in to the GOP.

Making Reid’s job harder is the absence of Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.), who was diagnosed this week with a cancerous brain tumor, and the uncertain schedules of the Democratic presidential candidates, Sens. Barack Obama (Ill.) and Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), who have been notified of the likely voting schedules but have not yet said whether they will return to Capitol Hill.

Both sides have been mum about their strategies, waiting for the other side to show its hand first.

“We want to get funding for the troops and that’s what the underlying measure and the whole exercise is about, and we will be working on that tomorrow,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Wednesday, declining to comment further.

 When asked what Democrats’ next step would be if they cannot get 60 votes Thursday, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said Wednesday: “I don’t know at all. I can’t tell you. I don’t know.”

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), an appropriator, said both sides would have to negotiate to make sure the bill lands on the president’s desk. The Pentagon said it would take steps to issue furlough notices to workers if the bill is not approved by June 9.

“My sense is that there will have to be some accommodation made to bring about 60 votes,” he said. “That’s most likely what is going to happen even if it’s clear that the president will veto it.”