Obama in the driver’s seat but McCain reads the map

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) holds important advantages in the states that decided recent presidential elections, despite the strong headwind Republicans face this November.

Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire show promise for Republicans hoping to hold the White House amid a housing crisis, record gas prices and the Iraq war.

{mosads}Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) wants to redraw the electoral map, looking at the Southwest and traditionally strong Republican states such as Virginia.

Part of that is because he is in a financial position to do so, but Obama might be looking elsewhere not just because he can but because he must.

An internal Obama campaign e-mail on Tuesday pointed to polls showing that the senator is leading or trailing narrowly in Missouri, Georgia, Colorado and Nevada — all states that went for President Bush.

While many political experts believe Obama will do better in red states than Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) did four years ago and Vice President Al Gore did in 2000, the Electoral College, unlike the Democratic National Committee primary, is winner-take-all.

Michigan — 17 electoral votes

Michigan provided McCain with a brief resuscitation during his failed run against Bush in 2000.

Earlier this year he campaigned hard there before losing to native son and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) by nine percentage points.

Because of residual good will and Obama’s decision not to campaign or compete in the state’s primary, McCain enjoys an early but narrow lead in the state.

Ken Pohlman, a political science professor at the University of Michigan, said that the state’s fiscally conservative Republicans, who don’t put a heavy focus on social issues, particularly in the Detroit suburbs, could bode well for McCain.

“I think McCain will appeal to that type of person,” Pohlman said. “If I were the Republicans, I would think Michigan is in play. McCain is the type of Republican who can win Michigan.”

McCain’s chances of winning Michigan would be enhanced if he picks Romney to be on the ticket.

RealClearPolitics poll average: Obama +1

New Hampshire — Four electoral votes

The Granite State has provided McCain with a lot of smiles over the past eight years, first in 2000 when he blew then-Texas Gov. George Bush out of the water. The state and its independent voters helped McCain cement his comeback after last summer’s campaign implosion.

While all that and an early lead should give McCain hope that he can win there, New Hampshire has been turning a deeper shade of blue in recent years, with Democrats holding both House seats and the governor’s office.

There is a silver lining for the Arizona senator, according to Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire.

“I think McCain has a better shot than any of his competitors from the primaries,” Scala said. “I think if anybody’s going to pull it off, it would be McCain.”

Obama, who was surprised by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) in New Hampshire, has a lot of inroads to make with white, blue-collar and Catholic voters, Scala said.

RealClearPolitics average: Obama +0.7

Pennsylvania — 21 electoral votes

Despite consistent Democratic wins in the commonwealth, Pennsylvania is still considered by most analysts to be a swing state.

Obama was bruised in the April primary following the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy, and Clinton was able to secure a big victory by winning enough of the more conservative, white voters outside of Philadelphia. McCain would have to follow Clinton’s playbook, to an extent, if he hopes to capture the state.

If McCain can connect with enough rural, blue-collar voters in the middle and northeast parts of the state, and pull the so-called Rendell Republicans or Casey Democrats in the upper valleys over to his side, then he might be able to offset the expected wave of support Obama will likely garner from Philadelphia, its suburbs and possibly the Pittsburgh area.

Terry Madonna, the director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College, said McCain has to blunt Obama’s support in the Philadelphia suburbs, home to 2004’s “security moms.”

The problem, Madonna said, is that this year security moms will likely be economy moms.

“Unless he can do something in the suburbs … I don’t know how he can win,” Madonna said.

But Republicans have demonstrated success in the past in winning over anti-abortion rights Catholics and white blue-collar voters, and McCain is just the type of Republican who can approach those voting factions, Madonna said.

Obama will enjoy the support of Gov. Ed Rendell (D), a one-man political machine, though McCain still has a solid surrogate and friend in former Gov. Tom Ridge (R).

All in all, it’s an uphill climb for McCain in a state Bush visited more than 30 times in 2004 but lost to Kerry.

RealClearPolitics average: Obama +7.7
{mospagebreak}

Florida — 27 electoral votes

The state that has brought so many headaches and heartaches to Democrats from 2000 to last month is ripe for McCain to hold onto.

Like Michigan, Florida is where Obama did not campaign in the primary — where he was walloped by Clinton. The Illinois senator faces some significant uphill demographic battles here, and because of that he might be drawing up an electoral map that excludes the Sunshine State, according to a recent Associated Press report.

{mosads}Four of the state’s key groups — Hispanics, Jewish voters, veterans and white, rural panhandle voters — seem to have been in McCain’s column from the beginning.

The Democratic nomination battle exposed Obama’s weaknesses with Hispanic and rural voters, and they are key to winning two different parts of the state — the Southern part and the Northwestern panhandle.

Obama’s campaign has repeatedly pointed to national polls showing that the senator is beating McCain soundly in the Hispanic community, though it is uncertain if those margins will play out in Florida.

Military veterans, a large bloc in Florida, are one of McCain’s natural constituencies.

What remains to be seen is how the state’s crucial Jewish vote will break. Obama has raised some eyebrows among that community throughout his campaign, but his aides have said repeatedly the Illinois senator will bring those voters to his side once he gets to know them.

McCain’s tough talk on Iran and Iraq will likely help him curry favor with the group, but Obama could still make a strong run.

McCain enjoys an early lead, though some polls suggest that now that Obama is starting to campaign in the state, he is quickly making up ground.

The Sunshine State was essentially the last Republican primary that put McCain in the nomination seat, and he continues to enjoy the ardent support of Gov. Charlie Crist (R) and Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.), two popular state officials many credit with putting McCain over the top in his race against Romney and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R).

RealClearPolitics average: McCain +5

Ohio — 20 electoral votes

In 2004, the Ohio Democratic Party was vastly overmatched by its Republican counterpart, and as a result Kerry had to build largely from scratch. That has changed drastically in four years, and the state now has a Democratic governor and a strong central party.

As in Pennsylvania, the economy will likely be the biggest issue on Ohio voters’ minds.

McCain’s greatest strength in the state is his “personal narrative,” according to Herb Asher, a political science professor at the Ohio State University.

Asher said McCain is well-regarded throughout the state for his “leadership, experience [and] being a war hero.”

Obama, on the other hand, is “still relatively unknown” to many Ohioans, as evidenced by Clinton’s big margin of victory in the March primary.

If McCain can carry southeastern Ohio, an area where Bush trounced both Gore and Kerry, then the Arizona senator could keep the state in the red column, Asher said.

The challenge is that Obama and Democrats are viewed by most as better on the economy, and Asher said daily news reports in the state are saturated with bad news of factories closing and jobs being lost.

Asher downplayed the importance of the North American Free Trade Agreement, saying that those who oppose it wouldn’t vote for McCain anyway and those who show relative ambivalence will likely see editorial boards giving McCain credit for sticking to his guns on the issue.

“I think the newspapers will give him credit for telling the truth and taking a brave stand,” Asher said.

RealClearPolitics average: Obama +5.3