Dem energy bill faces doubts ahead of vote

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and her leadership team face a major test Thursday as they attempt for the second time to pass their “use it or lose it” energy bill, which has served as the centerpiece of the Democrats’ energy platform since June.

Top Democrats on Wednesday said that despite the addition of “sweeteners,” they may not have enough votes to pass the bill on the suspension calendar, which requires a two-thirds majority.

{mosads}And if the bill fails again, its future may be in doubt.

Some Democrats said it may be difficult for their party to declare victory if the bill fails to clear the chamber a second time, even though a majority of the House has recorded affirmative votes.

Assistant to the Speaker Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.) on Wednesday said another loss may force Democrats to bring the bill up under regular order. But that’s a risk Democratic leaders might be unwilling to take, since Republicans have vowed to use a motion to recommit on any energy legislation to force a vote on legislation allowing drilling off the coast or in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR).

“We may get to that point,” Becerra said. “But what we can’t afford is to have a distraction that doesn’t let us move forward with an agenda that can get support in the Senate as well as get to the president.”

Asked if “use it or lose it” would be back a third time if it fails again Thursday, Becerra said he did not know.

And he hinted that Democrats may be inclined to pivot to a new set of energy proposals recently unveiled by Pelosi and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), which include an immediate release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and a curb on excessive market speculation.

Even though Republicans have also criticized those ideas, Becerra said the leadership believes there is a majority in both chambers ready to move on SPR.

Democrats first brought up their “use it or lose it” bill, formally known as the Responsible Federal Oil and Gas Lease Act, before the July 4 recess. It won the support of 212 Democrats and 11 Republicans, but was rejected by 19 Democrats and 176 Republicans, and fell far short of the two-thirds majority needed under suspension of the rules.

Pelosi said last week that her decision to place “use it or lose it” on the suspension calendar was not a procedural gimmick, but an attempt to build broad support for the measure and quickly get it out of the House with a veto-proof majority.

But Democrats are unsure that such support is there, despite the addition of measures to accelerate land leasing in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska, push for the completion of the Alaska pipeline and reinstate the ban on the exportation of Alaska-produced oil.

Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) on Wednesday said Republicans are in favor of the additional measures, but forcefully dismissed the “use it or lose it” provision, which would require energy companies that have non-producing leases on some 88 million federal acres to begin producing or vacate the lands.

“If it’s about encouraging the president to speed up the construction of the pipeline, or additional leasing facilities in Alaska, we’re for that,” Boehner said of what he believes may be in Thursday’s bill. “But the ‘use it or lose it’ is a hoax. It’s already current law … Most [Democrats] don’t recognize that this land is not prime for production.”

Boehner also charged again that Democrats are using the suspension calendar to avoid votes on opening up ANWR and the Outer Continental Shelf to drilling.

Democratic leadership aides expressed confidence ahead of Thursday’s vote even as some members suggested they did not have the votes.

“The bottom line is the bill will increase domestic production and will be very hard for any member to vote against,” a leadership aide said Wednesday night.