Bumps up and down K St.
Akin Gump brought in $2 million more during the first six months of 2008 than it did during the same period in 2007, avoiding a slide in business reported by several other firms that was attributed to the distraction of a presidential election.
Akin’s growth, though, still wasn’t enough to unseat Patton Boggs atop The Hill’s survey of lobbying revenues. Patton brought in $20.5 million, compared to Akin’s $17.8 million. Patton saw nearly a $1 million bump this year from the same six-month period a year ago.
{mosads}“In the past, we have had one or two clients or matters that sort of carried the load. It seems to me that it is much more spread out this year. We have been busy across all sectors,” said Steve Ross, a partner at Akin Gump.
Ross attributed the change to a broader agenda pushed by Democrats since the party reclaimed the congressional majority in 2007. Although several lobbyists said they expected a further drop-off in the second half of the year, Ross said his firm had seen the inklings of a further uptick in business as clients and potential clients begin to prepare for next year.
“Without regard to which candidate wins the presidency, you are going to see a new administration and the energy that comes with a new administration for the first time in eight years,” Ross said.
Some companies and interest groups are trying to get a head start on their 2009 agenda, Ross said.
On Monday, lobbying firms were required to report their fees earned from clients for the second quarter, which extended from April to the end of June. It is the second time K Street has had to file quarterly reports. Previously, the revenues were reported on a semi-annual basis.
Despite the revenue gains by Patton Boggs, Akin Gump and a few other firms, several lobbying shops reported significant losses at the half-year mark.
Revenues at Ogilvy Government Relations, for example, dropped more than 27 percent. The firm took in $9 million the first six months of 2008, compared to $12.4 million during the first half of 2007.
The numbers do not include fees from Blackstone, the Wall Street hedge fund. Last year, Ogilvy reported earning $3.7 million during the first six months from Blackstone.
American Defense International also reported a significant downturn this year compared to 2007.
The lobby firm known for its work on behalf of defense contractors has generated $2.5 million in revenue so far this year, compared with the $4.5 million it had earned at this point last year.
Quinn Gillespie & Associates reported a revenue decline of 11 percent. David Hoppe, president of Quinn Gillespie & Associates, said the slide was not unexpected, and in fact, mimics the decline the firm experienced in the last presidential election year.
But like Ross at Akin Gump, Hoppe saw reason to believe things were beginning to turn around, as clients try to anticipate the needs of a new administration.
“I don’t think ’08 is all that much different than ’04,” Hoppe said. “But people are starting to look earlier than they did in 2004 about what is going to happen in a new administration.”
Hoppe said energy has become the No. 1 issue on the minds of clients. But healthcare, immigration and tax policy, as well as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, will remain big issues next Congress.
Other lobbyists expect the slowdown to stretch into the second half of 2008, as clients wait to learn whether Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) or Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) will win the presidency.
“We are reaching the trading deadline. People are going to stand pat with their lobbying teams until after the election,” said Peter Peyser, head of government relations for Blank Rome.
“The third quarter is going to be a challenging quarter for everybody,” said Mike House, who runs the lobbying practice at Hogan & Hartson.
House’s firm reported rising revenues during the first half of 2008, but he expects the faltering economy and the relative inactivity of Congress to begin to take a toll during the second half of the year.
Increasingly, lobbyists say they are training their eyes on the presidential candidates, keeping track of campaign speeches and policy positions and working to insert their clients’ interests into the national conventions’ party platforms.
“If you can reach them now and make them understand why issue X fits into their philosophy, then it helps lay the foundation for more formal policy discussions once they become president,” said Mark Ruge, head of K&L Gates’s policy group.
Jim Christian, a partner at Patton Boggs, agrees, saying there is no time to waste in readying for the next president.
“You can’t wait until next year,” Christian said. “People like to plan ahead and polish their crystal balls.”
Midyear 2008 Lobbying Revenues Chart (PDF)
Rebecca Brown, Jim Snyder, Roxana Tiron and Jeffrey Young contributed to this report.
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