For Obama, ‘It’s the trust, stupid’

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is on the right path to winning the presidency, but he needs to get over the trust hurdle he has with some voters if he wants to close the deal on rival John McCain, Democratic strategists say.

Obama has maintained a narrow lead in national polls over McCain since winning the nomination against Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) in early June. Now, strategists say, Obama has to continue to introduce himself to voters who remain wary of a freshman senator who is still an unknown quantity to a lot of swing voters.

{mosads}Democratic strategists interviewed for this story seemed to agree that the contest, now less than 100 days away, is a referendum both on an unpopular President Bush and an unknown Obama. While Bush’s presence remains detrimental to the Arizona Republican’s chances, they said, Obama’s fate is largely his own.

Democratic strategist Dan Gerstein said that while voters repeatedly say the struggling economy is their No. 1 concern in this year’s election, he doesn’t think it will ultimately be what decides the race.

“[The economy] is the driving issue, but it’s not going to decide this campaign. It’s going to be about trust,” Gerstein said. “It’s the trust, stupid.”

The strategist said Obama will need to get over that hump because the bad political environment for McCain has made the election more about Obama than McCain.

“I think there’s a growing consensus that McCain is almost incidental to the campaign,” Gerstein said. “The election within the election is a referendum on Obama.”

To win that race, Gerstein said that Obama needs to continue “systematically and methodically addressing doubts and questions swing voters have” while at the same time he should “not get dragged into the day-to-day trench warfare with McCain.”

Steve Elmendorf, a Democratic strategist who supported Clinton in the primaries, said that he sees three major events left in the race — the conventions, the selection of a running mate and the series of debates between Obama and McCain. Of those, Elmendorf said, the debates will be the most critical for Obama.

“I think that’s where the test is going to come,” Elmendorf said.

Gerstein noted that there continue to be some voters who erroneously believe that Obama is a Muslim or that he refuses to say the Pledge of Allegiance. And while some of those voters will likely never fully trust the Illinois senator, he can do some things to assuage the concerns of more centrist voters who simply don’t know enough about the 46-year-old Democrat. Gerstein added that even Obama has “stated the obvious, which is he is an unknown quotient with a lot of voters.”

Gerstein’s advice is to tackle the trust issue head-on in town hall-style settings that would essentially be a message to voters that he is “an open book.” If Obama did so in a high-profile way, Gerstein contends, it would do more to establish trust than the Obama camp’s efforts have so far.

“I think taking it directly to voters would be much more effective than fightthesmears.com,” Gerstein said. “I think it would show confidence and leadership, but it would also show openness.”

Elmendorf said that the biggest part of the trust issue is the so-called “commander-in-chief test,” which he said Obama helped himself with on last week’s overseas trip that included stops in Afghanistan and Iraq.

“I think he did a lot last week to move the ball down the field on that,” Elmendorf said.

But he added that the debates, where he will be standing side-by-side with McCain in front of more fully engaged electorate, will be Obama’s chance to seal the deal — or, conversely, to amplify whatever concerns there are about him.

The debates also offer an opportunity for Obama to be more specific about his plans for meaningful change as he seeks to blunt McCain’s criticism that the Illinois senator’s rhetoric is just that.

“People are going to want to hear more specifics out of him,” Elmendorf said.

Most strategists The Hill contacted for this story agreed that Obama is in good shape at this point on the calendar, and he can clear whatever hurdles remain in his way.

Mark Kornblau, a Democratic strategist who served as former Sen. John Edwards’s (D-N.C.) press secretary during the primaries, said that, heading into the stretch, Obama needs to continue to run his kind of race.

“For Obama it’s simple: Stay true to yourself,” Kornblau said. “It’s gotten you this far. Despite a year and a half of second-guessing from pundits and Beltway insiders, Obama has largely followed his own good instincts and as a result he has toppled a Democratic giant, and created a very real sense of optimism in a country that is yearning for a new vision and a better sense of self.”

In Wednesday’s paper, The Hill will look at what Republican strategists view as the key for McCain to win inside the last 100 days.