Tough GOP race just got much tougher

Sen. Ted Stevens’s seat is in serious jeopardy, whether or not he is the Republican candidate in November.

Stevens’s indictment Tuesday leaves Alaska Republicans in an unenviable situation just three months before the general election, a race where their longtime senator was already in deep trouble.

{mosads}Even prior to the indictment, several polls showed Stevens trailing Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) in his reelection battle this year. And if Stevens resigns or opts not to run, Republicans could have difficulty replacing him with a top-tier candidate.

Stevens’s campaign said they were remaining in the race.

“Sen. Stevens’s campaign for re-election is continuing to move full steam ahead,” said campaign spokesman Aaron Saunders in a statement. “Our office has been flooded today with calls and emails from supporters urging the Senator to press on. The message from them is clear: Alaska needs Ted Stevens in the U.S. Senate.”

Because the filing deadline has passed, Republicans could replace Stevens on the ballot only if he wins the primary; otherwise they will be stuck with one of his primary challengers.

And even if he decided not to run, Stevens’s name wouldn’t come off the primary ballot, said state elections director Gail Fenumiai.

Should he win that primary, whether as an active candidate or not, Fenumiai said, Republicans would have to decide on a replacement by Sept. 17.

Among the GOP candidates who have filed, developer and former state Rep. David Cuddy and attorney Vic Vickers have put together the most money in the primary, with both self-funding just shy of $200,000 through the end of June.

Cuddy spent around $1 million against Stevens in a 1996 primary, losing 59-27.

Vickers recently announced he was spending more than $400,000 on a statewide ad buy that goes after Stevens, and on Tuesday he revised his television ads to include the fact that Stevens has been indicted.

{mospagebreak}He told The Hill that he would spend at least $750,000 on the race. He is holding a press conference Thursday in front of Stevens’s office to demand the incumbent’s resignation.

“Today, Alaska only has one United States senator,” Vickers said.

Neither Cuddy nor Vickers appears to have the financial means of Begich, though. The heavily favored Democrat has raised $1.3 million for his campaign and, at this point, is considered the prohibitive favorite in the general election.

{mosads}“The indictment of Sen. Ted Stevens is a sad day for Alaska and for the senator after his 40 years of service to our state,” Begich said in a statement. “The people of Alaska are resilient and strong. I have great faith in our state and our people, and we will continue to move forward.”

If Stevens resigns, the names being bandied about as potential replacement GOP candidates include former gubernatorial candidate John Binkley, state House Speaker John Harris, state House Majority Leader Ralph Samuels and state Rep. John Coghill.

Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell (R) might have been an attractive alternative, but he is already running in a primary against another embattled Alaskan incumbent, Rep. Don Young (R).

Alaska Republican Party spokesman McHugh Pierre said the party is proceeding on the assumption Stevens will remain in the race.

“I intend to see him win in November” if he is the nominee, Pierre said. “We’re moving forward.
“He’s in the primary race, and it’s going to be quite the race.”

University of Alaska Fairbanks Professor Gerald McBeath said Stevens would likely win the primary if he ran.

A diluted field of seven total candidates would probably help him in that regard.

“Cuddy got less than 30 percent of the vote after dropping more than $1 million on his campaign [in 1996], so he’s not a real strong opponent,” McBeath said. He noted that Stevens’s false-statements indictment could appear mild to voters, in comparison to other Alaska politicians who have been indicted for bribery and corruption.

Anchorage pollster Ivan Moore on Tuesday released a poll conducted last week that showed Stevens leading Cuddy 70-21 and no other candidate above 1 percent. Begich led Stevens in the general election 51-43.

Moore said it’s possible that Stevens could still win but that he wouldn’t count on it.

“My gut feeling is that that’s unlikely, and that at this point it’s probably more likely that either one of Dave Cuddy or Vic Vickers will win the thing, just because they’re the ones with the money,” said Moore, an independent pollster who wouldn’t disclose the private sponsor of his poll.

As far as the rest of Stevens’s Senate term goes, if Stevens were to resign, Republican Gov. Sarah Palin has the option to replace him. If she does, she must do so with a Republican and it must occur within 30 days.

No special election is required, since the Aug. 26 primary is less than 60 days away.