Obama faces tough test in front of VFW

Since Barack Obama last addressed the Veterans of Foreign Wars, much has changed.

Last August in Kansas City, Mo., the Illinois senator was joined by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), then the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, and the two senators were careful not to offend their anti-war base.

{mosads}On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) was trailing former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Even ex-Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.) spoke at the convention.

Perhaps most importantly, though, when Obama addressed the group, the surge in Iraq had yet to take hold, and most Americans, including veterans, continued to be frustrated by the appearance of failure in Iraq.

Obama came under fire from McCain and other Republicans for refusing to wholeheartedly, if not retrospectively, endorse the surge when he was overseas earlier this month.

But VFW officials said this week that the group’s membership does seem to be behind the surge, and Obama might be behind the eight ball for his continued push for a timed withdrawal from the war.

Joe Davis, a VFW spokesman, said that when Obama addressed the group last year, the “surge was still yet to prove itself.”

“Now in hindsight, the surge worked,” Davis said. He added that when it comes to war, one thing almost all combat veterans agree on is “they expect forward movement.”

“Sen. Obama looks forward to speaking again before the VFW Convention, where he will recognize the service of the men and women in VFW who have served our nation in war. Obama will highlight his positive record on veterans’ issues, including support for the new GI Bill and full funding for VA healthcare,” said Obama campaign spokesman Nick Shapiro.

And Davis noted that Obama “was very well-received last year, and he did very well.” When the group and 10,000 of its delegates meet in Orlando, Fla., next week, Davis said, he expects the same gracious welcome for the senator.

“I think Sen. Obama’s up to the challenge,” Davis said. “He brings the youth and he brings the energy. What he doesn’t have, and what Sen. McCain does have, is the experience.”

McCain is a lifelong member of the VFW, and the group’s political action committee (PAC), which generally endorses only in congressional races, has endorsed the Arizona senator in every race in which he has run.

That likely will not happen this time, though.

The last time the VFW endorsed a presidential candidate was in 1996, when the group got behind another lifelong member, former Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kan.).

That decision created a great deal of inner turmoil in a group that is pretty evenly divided politically.

“It threw the organization into an uproar, primarily because America’s veterans are pretty evenly divided politically,” one VFW source said last week. “That mistake will not take place again.”

Three separate CNN/USA Today/Gallup polls, taken during the 2004 presidential election year and provided to The Hill by the VFW, showed that 47 percent of America’s 26 million veterans said they were Republicans, 42 percent said they were Democrats and 11 percent described themselves as independents.

Sal Capirchio, director of VFW PAC, said for the PAC to endorse McCain this year, it would have to break its own bylaws.

“I don’t see that happening,” Capirchio said.

Capirchio said he has received a lot of calls from members asking if the PAC is planning to endorse McCain, but he says it would be “unfair” for the PAC to get involved.

“Do I think they might want to do it? Yes,” Capirchio said.

Capirchio agreed with Davis that the group will likely be respectful of Obama, but he said the Illinois senator does face a tougher task this year in the wake of a troop surge widely considered to have been a success.

“I think he faces a very tough challenge,” Capirchio said.

Davis noted that the group has been critical of the Bush administration’s handling of the war, and he thinks that Obama can score some points to that end.

Working against the Democrat, though, is that he is following McCain, who said just last week that “now [that] we’re winning in Iraq, [Obama] wants to forfeit.”

Davis noted that many veterans, particularly those of the Vietnam War, are wary of policymakers who might be trying to stop soldiers from succeeding in their mission.

 “All wars end, but how it ends is very important,” Davis said.