Republicans hope to stay afloat in Minnesota

As the dust settles in Minnesota’s Twin Cities after the Republican National Convention, candidates in several Tuesday primaries hope to kick it back up again.

In the state’s 1st Congressional District, two Republicans are competing to win the right to take on first-term Rep. Tim Walz (D), a top GOP target. Mayo Clinic physician Brian Davis has won the endorsement of the state Republican Party while also managing to outraise his opponent, state Sen. Dick Day.

{mosads}Day had received early buzz from the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), but Davis has since emerged as the potential frontrunner in the race. Davis has raised twice as much in the campaign to date, and raised more than five times as much than Day in July and August, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings.

“We’re working really hard, firing on all cylinders, and feeling pretty good,” said Davis spokesman Mike Spellings. He said that the Davis campaign had sought to make domestic oil drilling, like many other races, the top issue while also capitalizing on Davis’s experience as a health care professional.

“I think the question we’ll have is whether a couple of hundred thousands dollars is enough for our opponent to make up 17 years of name ID,” said Day spokesman Chris Johnson. The campaign maintains that Davis’s name recognition will not carry him to victory, and that Day has done a better job of barnstorming throughout the district.

The winner will face Walz, a freshman congressman who knocked off six-term Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R) during Democrats’ 2006 romp.

Though the district receives an R+1 rating from the Cook Political Report, indicating a homefield advantage for Republicans, Cook favors Walz here, rating the seat “likely Democratic.” The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has also placed Walz on their “Frontline” program, helping assist the campaign in fundraising and  
organization.

Walz has posted considerably large fundraising numbers to back that rating, having raised $2.2 million in the cycle to date, and reporting having $1.3 million in cash on hand through August 20th, more than four times as much as Davis and 26 times as much as Day through the same date.

“They’ve got to figure out who their candidate is, but Tim is a great position to face off with either of them,” said Walz’s campaign manager Chris Schmitter. He said that Davis’s first television ads, which Schmitter characterized as negative, would be a turnoff to voters.

On energy, too, the Walz campaign will play up the congressman’s participation in writing a compromise energy package in the House. The Davis campaign accuses Walz of “flip-flopping” on drilling. “Tim is open to expanded drilling, but opposed to giving companies a blank check,” Schmitter explained.

While Walz seeks to hold onto his seat for Democrats, though, comedian Al Franken will face a test in Tuesday’s Democratic primary that will help gauge how big of a threat he will be this fall to incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman (R).

Franken, the endorsed candidate of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) Party, has encountered an unexpectedly bumpy road during the race. He has attracted a variety of challengers throughout the primary as well as negative press surrounding a sexually explicit article he had written for Playboy magazine in 2000. In particular, Rep. Betty McCollum (D-Minn.) had criticized Franken and the racy article before endorsing Franken in early August.

Franken will receive a test Tuesday from personal injury lawyer and former Mothers Against Drunk Driving lobbyist Priscilla Lord Faris. Though Franken has overwhelmingly outraised Lord Faris, he was unable to get over 50 percent in a mid-August poll from Minnesota Public Radio (MPR) and the Humphrey Institute.

Franken led Lord Faris, receiving 45 percent to her 22 percent, with 9 percent supporting others and 25 percent undecided. The poll had a 3.6 percent margin of error.

“We're looking forward to sharing the ballot with the six other Democrats who have joined us on the road to change,” said Franken spokesman Andy Barr. “We're confident that Al will emerge victorious on Tuesday, and we're focused on making the argument against Norm Coleman and his record of supporting George Bush and his special interest friends.”

The MPR/Humphrey poll, though, showed a virtual dead heat between Franken and Coleman in the general election, reflecting the “toss-up” label of the race that most pundits have attached to the race.

The poll showed Franken leading Coleman 41-40, with 11 percent undecided. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley polled 8 percent. The poll found that Barkley’s support could be a dealbreaker for Franken, as those voters are more likely to support the “Saturday Night Live” alumnus.

“We expect Franken should be getting mid to high 90s in the primaries,” said Coleman spokesman Mark Drake, an expectation he denies is inflated because of the length of Franken’s campaign, fundraising strength, and widespread name recognition.

The Franken campaign asserts that the 90 percent expectation is not even in line with past DFL primaries in which there weren’t even serious opponents.

“We feel like having the national convention here was a great opportunity to showcase our state to the world and it speaks to Sen. Coleman’s ability to get things done,” Drake said of last week’s Republican convention in the Twin Cities. He touted the fact that the Xcel Energy Center, where the convention was held, is home to the Minnesota Wild professional hockey franchise, which Coleman played a role in luring to the area.

Franken had outraised Coleman by $700,000 through August 20 according to FEC filings, though Coleman’s burn rate has been much lower. Coleman’s campaign has more than twice as much cash on hand through the same date, saving more than $5.6 million to Franken’s almost $2.3 million.

One other primary on Tuesday should prove to be of less concern for Republicans as psychology professor Aubrey Immelman challenges incumbent Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) in the North Star State’s 6th District.

Immelman’s opposition is token, and Bachmann is expected to take on DFL candidate El Tinklenberg this November in a race the Cook Political Report says is likely Republican.