Governor bid by Hutchison appears increasingly likely

ST. PAUL — Kay Bailey Hutchison is increasingly looking like a candidate for Texas governor in 2010 as she strongly considers leaving the Senate early to pursue the bid.

The Republican senator has long harbored ambitions to be the chief executive of her home state, and some people close to her say such a candidacy is a near certainty.

{mosads}Hutchison seemed willing to concede that as a possibility in an interview at the Republican National Convention. There’s a “good chance” she would resign her Senate seat early to pursue the bid, she said, but then backed away from that statement. “I haven’t made that decision. … I won’t say good chance. There is certainly a chance.”

But she has taken actions that suggest the chances are good that she will leave before her term ends in 2013.

Hutchison said she and her husband Ray have enrolled their two children in a Dallas school this year. Last year the couple brought their young children to the Washington suburbs. Some see that move as a clear indicator of her imminent decision to relocate back to Texas.

Hutchison also spent August on a highly visible bus tour of her home state, repeatedly telling backers and the local media that she is actively considering a run for governor. Over the last several weeks, Hutchison has helped cement her name recognition as a frequent guest on cable news shows and as she was regularly mentioned as a possible vice presidential running mate for Sen. John McCain.

After schmoozing with Texas delegates at the Republican National Convention, she signaled that she was leaning toward leaving the Senate to run for governor in Texas.

“I think people know that I’m very much looking for that, hoping to do it. Yes,” she said on the convention floor.

Hutchison, 65, said she would “start looking at a timetable” to announce her intentions after the November elections.

People close to Hutchison say she is weary of Washington and is most happy back home in Texas. Leaving the Senate early, they say, might help her avoid casting difficult votes forced by a larger Democratic majority, which could complicate her bid for governor.

Already, Republicans are jockeying for her Senate seat, including state Sen. Florence Shapiro, who in July said she would form an exploratory committee in case Hutchison leaves office.

{mospagebreak}As chairwoman of the Republican Policy Committee, she ranks No. 4 in the GOP hierarchy. But she would almost certainly be forced to relinquish that post if she plans to resign her Senate seat sometime in 2009, senior GOP aides say.

That could create a shakeup in the leadership as more junior members seek to advance within their party, including the junior Texas Republican, John Cornyn, who is next in line. Cornyn, who is up for reelection in November, might instead seek the chairmanship of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, aides say.

{mosads}Leaving the Senate early could be risky because Hutchison could face a primary battle with Gov. Rick Perry, who has signaled his intention to run for a fourth term. Lt Gov. David Dewhurst, who is independently wealthy, also might make a run for the office, according to political analysts.

A Perry-Hutchison matchup would split the conservative base, according to Texas delegates at the Republican convention.

Some on the right have been angered by Perry’s push to build a series of toll roads through the state. And some social conservatives are skeptical about Hutchison’s anti-abortion positions and her support of stem-cell research.

“She has good name recognition, but the question is whether she bridges the gap with social conservatives,” said Jerry Polinard, a political scientist at the University of Texas-Pan American.

Hutchison had considering running against Perry in 2006 but decided to run again for the Senate, which some interpreted as a signal that she anticipated losing the primary because of limited support among social conservatives.

David Barton, a 54-year-old public speaker and Texas GOP delegate wearing a cowboy hat, praised Hutchison’s work on state issues and military matters. But, he said, “there are apprehensions” on social issues like abortion. “And that’s well known by lots and lots of delegates.”

Barton said her ability to defeat Perry could rest on his success in the upcoming legislative session, which starts in January.

Ben Streusand, 50, who hosts a talk radio show in Dallas-Forth Worth and Houston, said he is not convinced that Perry wants to seek another term.

“It’s hard for an incumbent governor to have an impact on a legislative session if he’s a lame-duck,” Streusand said. He added that the conservative base “has sort of had enough of Rick Perry” but is “not enamored with Kay Bailey Hutchison.”

In the interview, Hutchison said Perry’s plans would not affect what she chooses to do. Perry, who won his 2006 governor’s race with just 39 percent of the vote, has scheduled several fundraisers for a possible reelection bid.

“Whatever he does he’s going to do,” Hutchison said. “My decision, which I’m on the road to making, is based on what I’d like to do for Texas."