Boehner in the balance

September is a big month for Rep. John Boehner (Ohio) because his future as leader of the House Republicans depends on how many seats his conference loses in the Nov. 4 election.

Democrats are expected to expand their majority, but if they advance in numbers comparable to the 2006 wave, Boehner’s job will likely be in serious jeopardy.

{mosads}Boehner’s microphone is loudest when Congress is in session, so September is key as he tries to minimize the damage headed for the GOP.

By the end of this month, members are expected to be home campaigning, and while some freshman Democrats are nervous about their reelection races, there is more angst on Boehner’s side of the aisle.

Over the last several weeks, he has thrown everything he can at Democrats and it is unlikely there will be any letup over the next two months.

Boehner has repeatedly criticized Democrats for their energy policies, and his stewardship of the GOP protests on the House floor during the August recess played a role in forcing Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to shift her position on energy drilling.

More tellingly, Boehner has publicly called out two leading Democrats on politically sensitive issues.

Amid Pelosi’s summer dispute with religious leaders on abortion, Boehner and other Catholic Republicans in the House sent the Speaker a letter that demanded an apology and a retraction of her statements. Pelosi said the moment of conception has long been a matter of controversy within the Catholic Church.

Boehner has also been aggressive with the escalating ethics controversies of Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.).

During a tense exchange with Rangel on the House floor on Wednesday, Boehner called Rangel a friend but defended his call for the Ways and Means chairman to give up his gavel while the ethics committee conducts its investigation into some of his business dealings.

“It pains me to do what I have to do on behalf of my colleagues,” Boehner said. “…But the latest round of stories raise serious questions.”

The criticism of Rangel is an attempt to turn the tables on Democrats, who rode the so-called GOP “culture of corruption” to victory in 2006.

{mospagebreak}Boehner in late July called for a censure motion against Rangel, but it was tabled easily. In the motion to scrap Boehner’s measure, 25 Republicans voted with Democrats.

Boehner indicated his frustration with that vote in a closed-door meeting this week, telling his GOP colleagues, “Anyone who votes against debating one of my resolutions, that’s fine. You just won’t have a committee assignment.”

That threat was a departure from Boehner’s nice-guy image, a reputation that some Republicans have privately indicated will hamper the GOP in its effort to regain the majority.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) likened Boehner’s quote to former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay’s (R-Texas) reign. In a Wednesday release titled “John Boehner ‘Hammers’ House Republicans,” the DCCC said the minority leader “is channeling his inner Tom DeLay” and questioned why Reps. Jerry Lewis (R-Calif.) and Don Young (R-Alaska) were not removed as ranking members of their respective committees. Lewis and Young are reportedly under federal investigation.

{mosads}Yet Boehner applied pressure on ex-Rep. Bob Ney (R-Ohio) and Reps. John Doolittle (R-Calif.), Rick Renzi (R-Ariz.) and Vito Fossella (R-N.Y.) not to seek reelection. Ney pleaded guilty to crimes associated with Jack Abramoff; the other lawmakers are still dealing with various ethics-related controversies.

Unlike Pelosi and Sens. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Boehner’s leadership post is precarious.

If Democrats pick up fewer than 10 seats this fall, Boehner is likely safe. But if the number is closer to 20, many House Republicans would likely call for a leadership shakeup.

It is unclear who would challenge for Boehner’s post, though some GOP officials say members will be outspoken should Democrats post big numbers in November.

Michael Steel, a spokesman for Boehner, said, “Rep. Boehner and the whole leadership team are entirely focused on helping Republican candidates win on Nov. 4. Anything that comes after that, we’ll deal with after that.

“Obviously, given the unity our team has shown in working to force the Democratic majority to deal with the high price of gas, and the excitement surrounding the McCain/Palin ticket, we are feeling better about our prospects now than we were a few months ago. But we have not lost sight of the fact that we have a steep hill to climb.”

Democrats gained 30 House seats two years ago, but Boehner escaped much of the blame since he was elected to replace DeLay in early 2006. Still, Boehner had to fend off a leadership contest, trouncing Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.).

{mospagebreak}During a House GOP conference meeting on Tuesday, Pence praised Boehner and Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) for their work during the August protest.

Asked about the Ohio lawmaker’s leadership style, Pence said, “This has been a very difficult season for Republicans and he has provided consistent conservative leadership.”

Pence said his leadership run against Boehner wasn’t personal and that it was fueled by the desire to give Republicans the option of a different direction, stating, “I’m starting to understand why they went with John Boehner.

“Boehner and Blunt have led with courage,” he added.

{mosads}Boehner and Blunt have frustrated Democrats with their floor maneuvers, securing two dozen motion-to-recommit victories. But those inside-the-Beltway wins are nothing compared to Election Day results.

Boehner has been busy in trying to help his party and GOP colleagues. He chaired the GOP convention in Minnesota and has been an effective fundraiser.

Rep. Steven LaTourette (R-Ohio) said Boehner recently persuaded President Bush to visit Ohio and raised $600,000 for vulnerable seats in the state.

Boehner attended 18 events for GOP members and candidates in six different states in August. He will continue to travel for the party in October, said a source familiar with his schedule.

However, House Republicans badly trail their Democratic counterparts in cash on hand. That has led to tension between Boehner and National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.). It also led Boehner in February to tell his GOP colleagues to get off “their dead asses” and raise money for the NRCC.

The deeming of winners and losers in politics has a lot to do with expectations. Boehner has been downplaying them since April, when he boldly said, “I think we are going to win seats this year. Period.”

Boehner’s tune changed considerably after three special-election losses in conservative-leaning districts. Now the minority leader’s line is that the election year will be better for Republicans than expected.

Many Republicans don’t have high expectations as they bemoan the poor brand of the Republican Party. Meanwhile, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is basing much of his presidential campaign on getting the GOP back on track.