Analysis: GOP leaders take turns driving the bailout bus

A lame-duck president, a White House hopeful slipping in the polls, a targeted Kentucky senator and a House member looking over his shoulder have all taken the wheel of the Republican bus driving the beleaguered bailout toward passage.

But lawmakers, aides and lobbyists say certain GOP leaders have taken more of a leading role than others.
With the Republican Party in a state of transition, President Bush, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) have embraced the need for a bailout bill. But the stakes are very different for all four men, with Bush eyeing his legacy, McCain seeking to buck historical trends and win the presidency, McConnell fending off a spirited electoral challenge and Boehner working to keep his leadership position.

{mosads}Asked who has led the GOP charge on the bailout, a Republican lobbyist who is closely monitoring the rescue bill said Bush and McCain have taken a backseat to McConnell and House Republican leaders.

The lobbyist put Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s involvement at 30 percent, McConnell’s at 25 percent, House GOP leaders’ at 40 percent, and McCain’s at 5 percent.

Bush appointed Paulson as his point man in the negotiations, but his role in changing votes on controversial legislation has diminished significantly in recent years.

Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-Mich.) said, “The president doesn’t have a lot of credibility with us.”

Asked whether the president played a role in persuading skeptical members to support the bailout, Hoekstra said, “Who?”

Many House Republican members have lambasted Paulson for how he handled the bailout, criticizing him for demanding that Congress quickly rubberstamp his rescue plan.

Throughout most of his first term, Bush was an effective lobbyist, persuading Republican members to back controversial legislation on his domestic agenda. In November 2003, Bush — working with then-House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) — leaned on House GOP lawmakers to back the largest expansion of Medicare since its creation.

The cracks emerged soon after Bush was reelected, as he and Vice President Cheney struggled to convince Republican members to back the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) in the summer of 2005.

While the bill narrowly passed, it was an early indication that some Republicans were no longer going to get in line when the White House lobbying machine kicked into high gear. Following the passage of CAFTA, congressional Republicans and Bush clashed on the need for comprehensive immigration reform.

Meanwhile, Bush’s Social Security reform proposal didn’t even get a committee vote in the House or Senate.

His tax reform plan likewise went nowhere.

The Democratic takeover of Congress amid the public’s souring opinion of the Iraq war has hurt Bush’s ability to will his agenda through the House and Senate. While Bush has won major battles with the Democratic Congress on budget issues — specifically on the Iraq war — he has experienced many legislative defeats over the last couple of years.

Rep. John Peterson (R-Pa.), who voted for the bailout on Monday, said he thought Bush “had a lot of fear in his eyes” when he addressed the nation last week.

Peterson said, “You don’t want to spook the public when the markets are involved.”

Asked for comment for this article, White House spokesman Tony Fratto said, “We appreciate everyone’s leadership in getting the legislation to this point.”

Rep. Walter Jones (R-N.C), who has regularly bucked Bush, said House Republicans are taking a much different approach when taking calls from the White House.

{mospagebreak}Noting that 133 Republicans voted no on the bailout on Monday despite Bush’s endorsement, Jones said, “A lot of my colleagues have walked the plank, and they realize they can’t do it anymore.”

Jones, who has frustrated House GOP leaders with his siding with Democrats on key votes, praised Boehner’s handling of the rescue bill, saying that he has done as well as can be expected under the circumstances.

{mosads}But Boehner has hit bumps in the road. Rank-and-file GOP members cried foul with the minority leader and Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) when they blamed Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) speech for Monday’s meltdown on the floor. The legislators said the bill itself, not Pelosi’s speech, led to their “no” votes.

Boehner is under the gun, knowing that his leadership post will be in serious jeopardy if Democrats pick up a slew of seats on Nov. 4.

Senate Democrats are expected to strengthen their majority this fall. While McConnell’s leadership post is considered safe, his seat is not. Democrats have targeted McConnell this year, and polls indicate the race will be close.

McConnell has taken a quieter approach on the bailout than Boehner, but he played a major role in crafting the new compromise bill that sailed through the Senate on Wednesday night.

The financial crisis has halted McCain’s political momentum. Recent polls indicate he has taken significant dips in key battleground states.

McCain’s decision to postpone his campaign to return to Washington to fix the ailing economy was seen as a shrewd move, sending Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-Ill.) campaign on its heels. But Obama gained the political edge when McCain went one step further, saying he would not attend the first presidential debate. After Obama vowed to show up, McCain was boxed into a corner and subsequently backtracked.

Republicans on Capitol Hill were not pleased when McCain last month called for Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Christopher Cox to resign amid the financial mess. Cox served 17 years in the House.

In a press release this week, Boehner made a point to praise Cox by name when the SEC eased some of its so-called “mark to market” accounting rules.

Rep. Zach Wamp (R-Tenn.) applauded McCain’s handling of the financial crisis, saying, “He has the most credibility right now in our party. He has more credibility than President Bush, even though I respect President Bush.”

McCain’s campaign did not comment for this article.