Next president likely to create some Senate vacancies

With the next president coming to the Oval Office straight from the Senate, Cabinet appointees next year could have a distinctly senatorial flavor. And that means congressional vacancies.

In fact, if John McCain or Barack Obama appoints even two or three senators to the executive branch, the vacancies in the upper chamber could shift the balance of the next and future Congresses by multiple seats, as many potential appointees come from states where they would be replaced by governors of the opposite party.

{mosads}Senators were often tapped for the Cabinet early in American history, but according to the Senate historian, only three have been appointed directly from the chamber since 1950 — Lloyd Bentsen (D-Texas) in 1993, Edmund Muskie (D-Maine) in 1980 and William Saxbe (R-Ohio) in 1974.

Over the same span, though, only one man has been elected president straight from the Senate — John F. Kennedy. McCain and Obama have both spent enough time in the chamber to build relationships with several colleagues they could tap in a new administration.

Experts say that makes it somewhat more likely that a few senators could vacate their seats for a role in the executive branch — particularly with McCain, whose 22 years in the Senate are a decade more than any president in history.

Jennifer Duffy, a Senate race analyst with The Cook Political Report, said the confluence of circumstances could add to the waning number of senators-turned-secretaries.

“I think maybe you’ll see a couple [senators], and there may be people who want to leave,” Duffy said, suggesting that members like Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) might be looking for a new challenge after decades in the Senate.

Dodd’s Connecticut colleague is perhaps the most likely Cabinet pick at this point, with many seeing Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) as a near shoo-in for Defense secretary under McCain.

If either Dodd or Lieberman is picked, Republican Gov. Jodi Rell would appoint a replacement, which would effectively flip the seat, since Lieberman currently caucuses with Democrats.

Altogether, among those considered potential Cabinet members, Lieberman’s and Dodd’s selections would be two of many that could flip a seat into the opposition party’s column.

Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.), for instance, is retiring from the Senate in 2010 and is seen as a potential attorney general.

But appointing him would cause him to vacate the seat early and give Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius the chance to appoint a Democrat who could build up incumbency before an election in 2010, at which time a full term would be at stake.

Similarly, the appointment of either Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) or Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) would allow Democratic governors to appoint replacements.

Specter is seen as a possible Veterans Affairs secretary, along with Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.). Burr’s state is currently led by a Democrat, but a tight race this year will decide the new governor, meaning that race would likely determine which party grabs the seat.

The result would also be up in the air if Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) is appointed. Republican Gov. Mike Rounds would be able to appoint a temporary replacement, but a special election would follow just three months after the vacancy.

{mospagebreak}Most states would hold the special election in 2010 or, at the earliest, November 2009.

On the Democratic side, Dodd and Sens. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) and Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) would all be replaced by GOP governors, while Sen. John Kerry’s (D-Mass.) seat, like Thune’s, would require a quick-fire special election.

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), like Burr, would be appointed around the same time as a new governor takes office. But she could likely wait to resign until Republican Gov. Matt Blunt is replaced, as Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon appears primed to succeed him.

{mosads}Democratic Sens. Bob Casey Jr. (Pa.), Dick Durbin (Ill.) and Jim Webb (Va.) would all be backed up by Democratic governors, and GOP Sens. Saxby Chambliss (Ga.) and Lindsey Graham (S.C.) would see their replacements fall in the hands of a Republican colleague.

While Lieberman would be a bipartisan appointment for McCain, Obama has openly talked about appointing Republican Sen. Richard Lugar (Ind.). In that state, GOP Gov. Mitch Daniels is currently ahead in his reelection race, and would likely appoint Lugar’s replacement.

Senators who lose reelection have become popular Cabinet picks, as was the case with Sens. John Ashcroft (R-Mo.) and Spencer Abraham (R-Mich.) in 2001.

McCain figures to be able to pick from a handful of exiting Senate Republicans if Democrats carry their momentum through the final month of the election.

Senators who could be prime appointee options if they lose include GOP Sens. Norm Coleman (Minn.), John Sununu (N.H.) and Elizabeth Dole (N.C.), who has already served as Labor secretary and Transportation secretary.

Associate Senate historian Donald Ritchie said losing reelection is a more likely path from the Senate to the Cabinet these days.

He pointed out that Sens. Henry Jackson (D-Wash.) and Sam Nunn (R-Ga.) repeatedly turned down Cabinet slots because they preferred the Senate. He also noted that, in the 19th century, it was much easier for a Cabinet appointee to return to the Senate, because senators were elected by state legislatures.

“Essentially, I think most sitting senators find their jobs more satisfying than being in the Cabinet,” Ritchie said, “with more possibility of affecting policy broadly and of possibly running for the presidency themselves someday.”

And as for the two presidential candidates, Obama’s replacement would be appointed by a Democratic governor and serve until 2010. McCain’s replacement would be appointed by a Democratic governor but would have to be a Republican because of state law.

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