Davis predicts double-digit losses for House GOP

Retiring Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.) said Friday that though races for Congress will tighten, he still expects double-digit losses next month for his House GOP colleagues.

Davis, a former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said that Democrats are benefiting from a huge fundraising advantage, increased voter registration numbers and the excitement generated by Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.).

{mosads}“You’ve got to look at the high African-American urban-style districts,” Davis said at a National Press Club lunch. “It’s not going to be business as usual” there for Republican candidates, he added.

But Davis said that Democratic leads in polls will get smaller in the final weeks of the election season, when Republicans begin to spend more money on races.

"I've seen some races that have swung 25 points in 10 days," said Davis.

Davis is one of 26 Republicans in the House who are retiring this year. He initially considered running for the seat of Sen. John Warner (R-Va.), who is also leaving Congress. But Davis was rebuffed by Virginia Republican activists, who ultimately tapped former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore as the party’s nominee.

Davis, respected as a political strategist, noted that Democrats face difficulties this year that encumbered Republicans in 2006. While Democrats two years ago ran against lobbyist Jack Abramoff and the "culture of corruption,” several Democratic members are now facing ethics issues.

"They've got some poster people themselves," Davis said.

Those Democrats up for reelection include Rep. William Jefferson (La.), who awaits trial on federal corruption charges, and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel (N.Y.), who faces House ethics probes for his real estate deals, Davis noted.

Davis also downplayed the benefit Democrats will get from increased voter registrations, questioning whether many new registrants will vote.

“I saw recently that the Dallas Cowboys are registered to vote in Nevada, through ACORN,” said Davis, knocking the community organizer group under fire this week for submitting invalid voter registration forms.

And while new voters may back Obama at the polls, there’s no guarantee that they’ll vote Democratic in down-ballot races, Davis said.

“We’re not going to spend any money on educating them on what to do,” he added.

Davis appeared with Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) before reporters at the National Press Club. Unlike Davis, Van Hollen stayed away from predicting the number of seats Democrats could win.

"The environment is very turbulent out there," Van Hollen said, noting a large number of toss-up races.

Van Hollen, though, said he was confident Democrats would build on their 36-seat majority. He attributed his party’s advantage this year to the recruitment of strong candidates, the failure of President Bush’s economic policies, and the impetus for change.

“Americans are understandably frustrated that things haven’t turned around,” Van Hollen said. “But they still see Democrats … as the party that’s fighting for change, and the Bush White House and Republicans in Congress as defending the status quo.”

When asked about specific toss-up races that their respective sides are eyeing, Davis singled out Democratic Reps. Paul Kanjorski (Pa.) and Carol Shea-Porter (N.H.), while Van Hollen said that GOP Reps. Randy Kuhl (N.Y.), Marilyn Musgrave (Colo.) and Ric Keller (Fla.) could all lose.