Confident Dems take Senate fight into deep-red South

Sen. Charles Schumer and Senate Democrats are hoping to turn the tide blue in the South with a massive television advertising campaign in four southern states.

Democrats are on the air in the former Republican strongholds of Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina and Kentucky, where they want to unseat Mitch McConnell, the Senate’s Republican leader.

{mosads}In North Carolina, Schumer (D-N.Y.) has targeted Sen. Elizabeth Dole, the former head of the GOP Senate campaign effort.

In Georgia and Mississippi, where as recently as this summer political observers gave Democrats little chance of wining, they now think they can unseat Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) and Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), who replaced former Republican Sen. Trent Lott earlier this year.

Schumer, the head of the Senate Democratic campaign committee, would like Democrats to control 60 Senate seats so they would have enough votes to overrule tactics Republicans have used to block legislation.

Democrats have the luxury of invading traditionally Republican parts of the country because they enjoy a massive fundraising advantage and the GOP’s brand has been further weakened by public perceptions that the economy is slumping.

Democratic nominee Barack Obama’s surge in the polls and the likelihood that he’ll turn out record numbers of African-American voters in Georgia, Mississippi and North Carolina, has buoyed Democrats hopes. Black voters usually vote overwhelmingly in favor of Democratic candidates.

Democrats are also taking advantage of the unpopularity of the $700 billion Wall Street bailout package that Congress passed before recessing for the election. Two of the GOP incumbents in those states, McConnell and Chambliss, voted for the package.

McConnell’s standing in the polls hit a low point in late September when Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson was rounding up congressional support for the controversial proposal, which a slew of southern Republicans, including McConnell’s home-state colleague Sen. Jim Bunning, opposed.

“Republicans incumbents are in trouble in the South because they've voted for George Bush's failed economic policies, and now voters have a chance to hold them accountable," said Matt Miller, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).

Rebecca Fisher, the Senate Republicans’ spokeswoman, said they are confident they will hold onto seats in so-called red states, which President Bush carried in 2000 and 2004.

“We are fully confident our Republican Senators in red Southern states will be re-elected in November despite the national Democrats best efforts,” said Fisher.

Republican operatives say the economy has hurt Republican candidates around the country.

“There’s no question the economic debate in D.C. heightened problems across the country for Republicans,” said GOP operative who did not want to be quoted discussing the problems faced by his candidate and other Republicans.

Marvin King, a professor at the University of Mississippi specializing in Southern politics, said that the weakened GOP brand and Sen. Obama’s (D-Ill.) massive campaign field operation has given Democrats a rare chance.

“Obama is able to raise so much money and put a ground operation in so many states that Democrats for the first time are able to be the aggressors,” said King. “The mere fact that they can be aggressive forces Republicans to spend money in these states. If you keep the NRSC from spending as much in other states it’s a side benefit.”

King said the vast majority of ads he’s seen benefiting the Democratic Senate candidate, Ronnie Musgrove, have been paid for by the Senate Democratic committee.

It’s not just the South where Democrats are on the march either. 

Senate Democrats are also running ads in Maine and Alaska, where they want to defeat Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), who is facing a corruption trial in Washington.

Senate Democrats are further buoyed by a funding advantage; while they are flush with cash, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is short of it, partly because of the stinginess of some sitting GOP senators.

The NRSC is on the air in Mississippi, but has not responded to Democratic adds in Georgia, Maine, Alaska or even Kentucky, where McConnell is under fire.

The NRSC recently decided to pull its television advertising in Louisiana, the state where they were believed to have the best chance of defeating a Democratic incumbent, Sen. Mary Landrieu, to focus on other priorities.

One GOP strategist familiar with the race between Chambliss and Democratic challenger Jim Martin said he was told the money would be redeployed in Georgia.

Limited resources have also forced the Republican committee to stay off the air in Virginia and New Mexico, two states now represented by retiring Republicans. Two Republicans speaking on condition of anonymity said it was remarkable that the NRSC is virtually conceding two open seat races, and say it is a sign of a poor showing on Election Day.

Mark Riddle, a Democratic strategist in Kentucky, estimated the DSCC had bought close to 1000 points of advertising — nearly saturation coverage — in the Bluegrass State.

McConnell is facing a strong challenge there from businessman Bruce Lunsford. 

“It’s a serious investment,” said Riddle, who added that few observers over the summer thought Democrats would have much of a chance in Kentucky. “In June and July this race wasn’t very close, frankly.”

Riddle said things changed after the economy began to sputter. 

“With the collapse of the economy and McConnell being part of the leadership in Washington, [McConnell] is example number one of where voters are taking their angst.”  

Justin Brasell, McConnell’s campaign manager, however, disputed Democratic claims that the race is close.

 “Senator McConnell is in a very strong position for reelection both in terms of resources and his standing with voter in Kentucky,” said Brasell. “There is a Washington narrative about this race that simply doesn’t track with what’s happening in Kentucky and it seems to be based exclusively on one poll taken three weeks ago.”  

A Mason-Dixon poll from the end of September showed McConnell leading by one percentage point.