Conviction may not end Stevens’s career

Sen. Ted Stevens’s political allies are gearing up to eke out an Election Day victory even if he is found guilty of felony charges. 

The Republican’s name will be on Alaska’s Nov. 4 ballot no matter what verdict a Washington jury returns in his corruption case, since state law prohibits parties from naming replacement candidates less than 48 days before the election. Jurors failed to reach a verdict Thursday and will continue their deliberations on Friday morning.

{mosads}A conviction would undoubtedly damage Stevens’s chances against Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D), as Sen. John Ensign of Nevada, chief GOP campaign strategist, acknowledged this week.

But Ensign’s National Republican Senatorial Committee said it was sending two officials to Alaska this week to coordinate the GOP’s get-out-the-vote effort, according to an e-mail sent by the Alaska Republican Party to local volunteers.

Also, Stevens’s Republican allies in the Senate — fellow Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison — campaigned on his behalf this week in Anchorage. The senators echoed two arguments that will likely dominate the campaign trail if Stevens is convicted: that he has been treated unfairly by the Justice Department and his case was not heard by a jury of his peers.

Senior Alaska GOP strategists say those arguments, along with his iconic status in a state that he helped build since its inception in the 1950s, could be enough to carry him to a narrow victory in November. His chances grow even stronger, they argue, if the jury finds him guilty on only a handful of the seven charges.

“I think he will win either way,” said David Dittman, a GOP pollster in the state.

Bethany Lesser, a spokeswoman for the Alaska Democratic Party, said Stevens has gotten a fair trial with the help of his high-priced lawyers and said the case was heard by a jury of peers, citing Stevens’s own admission that he spends most of his time in Washington.

“The Alaskan GOP has a pretty low opinion of voters if they think Alaskans will send a convicted felon back to the U.S. Senate –— a felon, who if reelected could face expulsion from the U.S. Senate and will have no friends, no clout or influence left to benefit Alaska,” Lesser said.

Still, the four-week criminal trial does not seem to have hurt Stevens in the polls. GOP strategists argue that Stevens has had the opportunity to explain his side of the story in the courtroom, and the judge’s repeated criticisms of the Justice Department’s handling of key evidence has given weight to the argument that he has been treated unfairly.

A poll conducted Oct. 17-19 by Democratic pollster Ivan Moore found Begich up by 1 percentage point.

“If Stevens is acquitted on all counts, he probably becomes the favorite to win,” Moore said in an interview.

If he’s convicted on some of the counts, Moore said, Stevens is “still guilty” and is “still a felon” and Begich becomes the favorite.

“If he’s thrown the book, then I think it’s all over,” Moore said.

Stevens, 84, has been charged with concealing more than $250,000 of gifts and free home renovations from former oil executive Bill Allen and other long-time friends. The Senate’s longest-serving Republican, who has held onto his seat for 40 years, has pleaded not guilty to all seven charges.

If he’s convicted, however, several Senate GOP allies in tight reelection races, like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), as well as the Republican vice-presidential nominee, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, could be forced to take a position on whether Stevens should continue to serve. If they avoid the question, they will look like they are siding with a convicted felon. But if they agree he should resign, it could imperil Stevens’s reelection chances.

A convicted Stevens would not necessarily be forced out of the Senate. If he wins reelection to a seventh full term, the Senate Ethics Committee would likely launch a preliminary inquiry on whether it should recommend his expulsion from the upper chamber, aides say.

But with the 110th Congress coming to a close, any such proceedings would wait until January at the earliest. New Jersey Democrat Harrison Williams, the last sitting senator to be convicted of a felony, resigned his Senate seat in 1982, 10 months after a verdict was reached, according to the Senate’s historical office.

The ethics committee, however, could decide to hold off on action if Stevens appeals a conviction.

If he is sentenced to jail and could not get a stay on his conviction, he would be under enormous pressure to resign.

A resignation would force the governor to call a special election within 60 days. The law was changed after then-Sen. Frank Murkowski (R) won the Alaska governor’s race in 2002 and appointed his daughter, Lisa, to his Senate seat.

GOP officials say there are no plans to mount a write-in campaign for another candidate if Stevens is convicted because they say he stands the best chance of getting elected.

“Even if he is convicted, he will win,” insisted McHugh Pierre, a spokesman for the Alaska Republican Party. He added that Alaskans “are upset with the DoJ” because prosecutors “went after our guy and they’re not treating him fairly.”

Judge Emmet G. Sullivan has repeatedly criticized prosecutors for not handing over key evidence before the case began and for shuttling a prospective witness back to Alaska before he met with defense attorneys. He penalized the prosecution by striking relevant evidence from the case.

Julie Hasquet, a spokeswoman for Begich, said the Democrat will win regardless of the outcome of the case because of voters' concerns with the economy and energy issues.

“The theory that Sen. Stevens wins reelection if convicted is a desperate public relations move by his supporters,” Hasquet said.