Chief of Staff Emanuel would create another Ill. vacancy

The ascension of Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) as President-elect Barack Obama’s chief of staff would lead to the first special election of the 2010 cycle.

Several outlets reported Wednesday that Emanuel had accepted the position, though House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said it was his understanding “that he has not made that decision.”

{mosads}Democrats would have little trouble holding the Chicago seat. Emanuel won reelection by a comfortable 74 percent majority. The 5th district also went 67 percent for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004 and is in reliably Democratic Cook County.

Democrats took a GOP-held seat in Illinois during a special election earlier this year. And they are contending with who will be Obama’s replacement in the Senate. That decision could free up a congressional seat if someone like Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. or Rep. Danny Davis is selected.

The first names that rose to the top of list of potential replacements for Emanuel were those of state Sen. John Cullerton and state Rep. Sara Feigenholtz.

Cullerton could be the odds-on favorite, but he is currently enmeshed in a tight race to become the next state Senate president.

The timing of that race, of Emanuel’s resignation and of the special election would have significant impacts on whether Cullerton can run.

The state Senate presidency should be decided by January, and Emanuel could resign at any point, given that a president’s chief of staff is not subject to a confirmation process.

Once he does resign, Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) must determine a special-election date within 120 days. Blagojevich also appoints Obama’s replacement.

Dan Johnson-Weinberger, a local Democratic lobbyist and consultant, said both Cullerton and Feigenholtz would be strong candidates, but that Cullerton’s state Senate president aspirations could complicate matters.

Cullerton is facing state Sen. James Clayborne in that race, with current state Senate President Emil Jones retiring.

“Both Cullerton and Sen. Clayborne are considered neck-and-neck, so he’s a top-tier candidate for that post, as well,” Johnson-Weinberger said. “Presumably, it would decided by January. If it’s not, then there’s a potential problem” with timing.

Cullerton has been in the state legislature for nearly three decades, but he has shown some interest in Washington, running against Rep. Dan Rostenkowski (D-Ill.) in a primary in 1994.

Cullerton fell to the embattled Rostenkowski by 20 points, before Rostenkowski lost in the general election.

Feigenholtz is a former chief of staff to Cullerton. She has served in the state assembly since 1995, and her base is split between Emanuel’s 5th congressional district and another district.

The possibility of Emanuel as Obama’s chief of staff began to percolate only recently, and many thought he would hold the seat for a long time, so local legislators haven’t had much time to evaluate their options.

Neither Cullerton’s nor Feigenholtz’s offices responded to requests for comment Wednesday.

“I think the conventional wisdom was Congressman Emanuel is likely to be the congressman for another decade or two on his path to becoming the Speaker,” Johnson-Weinberger said. “So I think this is an unexpected development.”