Several Senate races will soon become clearer as top-notch Democratic
and GOP recruits are expected to announce whether they will run.
Republicans have the longest list of possible candidates as they hope to secure, including Florida Gov. Charlie Crist and Reps. Mike Castle (Del.) and Mark Kirk (Ill.).
{mosads}Each of those three would change the terrain of their races in a way almost no other candidate could, with Castle and Crist looking like strong favorites to run. Kirk would give Illinois Republicans a fighting chance in a blue state.
But they’re not the only game-changers out there. With a huge battle being waged over the possibility of a filibuster-proof 60 Democratic seats, several other politicians hold significant sway over just how competitive their home-state Senate races will be. There will be tremendous pressure on many of them to take the plunge in the coming months.
The Hill looks at the Top 10 potential game-changers:
1. Crist
It was inconceivable at the beginning of the cycle that Crist would think about running for Senate. But just two years into a highly popular stint as governor, he has turned his attention to Washington – a likely move seen as a precursor to a potential future presidential run. In the meantime, he would make the open Senate race far more difficult for Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.) and former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), and both sides have sought to discourage Crist from running by hitting him early and hard. We will find out as early as this week whether that had any effect, as Crist is primed to announce his plans.
The line: 90 percent chance he runs.
2. Kirk
We’re not quite sure what’s going on here. Kirk was supposed to make an announcement by the end of April, but no word yet. Now, local analysts and operatives are starting to question whether it was as much of a sure thing as it seemed. Kirk’s centrist record, fundraising ability and electoral success in one of the toughest House districts in the country make him formidable, and there isn’t much in the way of an alternative for a skeletal Illinois GOP. A recent poll showed him neck-and-neck with state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) and leading Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.).
The line: 80 percent chance Kirk takes the leap.
3. Castle
Castle might cause the biggest swing of all. At this point, he appears the only Republican in the dark blue state of Delaware who could even have a shot at its open Senate seat, and a Susquehanna poll last week showed him with a big 55-34 lead over the likely Democratic candidate, state Attorney General Beau Biden. So if Castle runs, Republicans are favored; if he doesn’t, they probably don’t even try. The big question is: does the popular former governor really want to be in the Senate minority and wage his first Senate campaign at 70, the age he will turn in two months? But then again, House Democrats are targeting Castle’s seat this cycle, regardless of whether the centrist lawmaker retires. So it might be a good time for Castle to launch a Senate bid.
The line: 50 percent chance Castle runs.
4. North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper (D)
The swing isn’t near as drastic with Cooper (after all, Democrats have shown they can win in the Tar Heel State with little-known state lawmaker – Kay Hagan), but Cooper would be instantly formidable and might even start the race in the driver’s seat. It’s rare that a challenger actually starts the race ahead, but multiple polls have shown Cooper with modest leads over first-term Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.). Despite his solid starting position though, Cooper has labored with his decision, and it’s hard to get a read on just how close he is.
The line: 50 percent chance he runs.
5. Former Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.)
Despite losing his seat in 2008 by seven percentage points, the latest Granite State Poll shows Sununu maintaining a 47 percent favorable rating and only a 36 percent unfavorable rating. He also holds a 46-41 lead in a hypothetical matchup with Democratic frontrunner Rep. Paul Hodes (D-N.H.). Sununu is hardly a flawless candidate – as evidenced by his loss last year – but he still has a good name in his home state. And it’s not like a bunch of big-name Republicans are breaking down doors looking to run for retiring Sen. Judd Gregg’s (R-N.H.) seat. Sununu’s dad, the former White House chief of staff of the same name, has taken over as state party chairman, and some saw that as a sign that his son might run again. But we’re still waiting for any sign of interest from the younger Sununu.
The line: 25 percent chance he runs.
6. Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-La.)
Speaking of hard to read: Melancon is nothing if not coy about running for Senate. He doesn’t seem to want to talk about it at all. He sought to stop the asking earlier this year when he said: “Never say never, but I’m not contemplating a run at this time.” Still, he’s not entirely closing the door, and it’s hard not to think Melancon would be a formidable candidate against Sen. David Vitter (R-La.). A recent poll showed that, while Vitter maintained a strong approval rating, only 30 percent of voters say they will definitely vote for him. Melancon packs lots of bipartisan appeal, and a Research 2000 poll for the liberal site Daily Kos showed him holding Vitter under 50 percent, 48-41. If wealthy Shaw Group CEO Jim Bernhard (D) gets in, though, Melancon isn’t likely to crowd the primary.
The line: 25 percent chance he runs.
{mosads}7. Former New York Gov. George Pataki (R)
There’s lots yet to shake out in New York, where appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) continues to have problems with the Democratic base. Whether or not she or one of the state’s House members nabs the nomination, though, three-term former governor Pataki would enter the race in a strong position. A Marist poll from last week showed him leading Gillibrand 46-38 after trailing her 45-41 in March. Pataki hasn’t done anything to quiet the speculation, but it hardly seems likely that he would go for it at this point.
The line: 25 percent chance he runs.
8. Former Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes (D)
Much like Pataki, Barnes seems to get mentioned every time there’s an opportunity, and he hasn’t shown a great deal of will to jump back into the political arena. But a Daily Kos Research 2000 poll last week showed him within four points of Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.) in a race that really isn’t on the Democrats’ radar at this point. Watching former state Rep. Jim Martin (D) put up a real fight against Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) in 2008 has to be intriguing for Barnes. Still, don’t count on it – especially when the better opportunity appears to be for his old office, which is an open seat.
The line: 20 percent chance he runs.
9. North Dakota Gov. John Hoeven (R)
Despite the red nature of North Dakota, it won’t be a race unless Hoeven goes for it. The matchup would be a clash of titans, pitting a senator – Byron Dorgan (D) – who routinely takes 60 percent of the vote or more against a three-term governor who took 74 percent last year. Hoeven isn’t entertaining the thought right now, though, and looks unlikely to make a run. A Daily Kos poll from February probably doesn’t help matters, showing Dorgan easily defeating him, 57-35.
The line: 15 percent chance he runs.
10. Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry (D)
This might be the longest shot of all. First of all, it would almost undoubtedly require Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) to retire (Coburn has left open the possibility); and secondly, it would require Henry to actually showing some interest in going to Washington. We’re not there yet and probably never will be, but a Southern Political Report item this week his piqued some interest among state Democrats in the possibility. Henry has very strong favorability numbers and is term-limited, so the pressure will be there if Coburn opts to return to private life. Still, Rep. Dan Boren (D-Okla.) is probably the more likely option, and he would stand a good chance, too.
The line: 10 percent chance he runs.