Appointments put Ariz., N.Y. Senate races in motion

The Arizona and New York Senate races officially began Monday morning,
with the appointment of two of the most powerful women in American politics to
President-elect Barack Obama’s Cabinet.

The respective nominations of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and
Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano (D) as secretaries of State and Homeland Security
essentially free up the Democratic nominations for those states’ Senate races
in 2010.

{mosads}The appointment process and 2010 race in New York are set to be highly
competitive, while Arizona could fall off the radar, with Sen. John McCain
(R-Ariz.) being spared his toughest potential foe in Napolitano.

In both cases, the appointments appear to be electoral negatives for
Democrats, who will now have to defend an open seat and find a viable opponent
for McCain.

With much jockeying already taking place in Illinois for Obama’s
vacated seat, the sweepstakes in New York should easily rival it now that
Clinton’s nomination is official.

Gov. David Paterson (D) must choose an appointee from a diverse field
including a potential primary opponent to himself in the 2010 governor’s race,
more than 20 Democratic House members and even a couple members of the Kennedy
family. He has said he will not appoint himself.

Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) is the consensus strongest  pick
for the post, not least because he is thought to be a strong opponent for
Paterson in two years. Paterson ascended to the seat earlier this year after a
prostitution scandal forced Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D) out.

Also thought to be near the top of the list are Democratic Reps. Nydia
Velazquez, Kirsten Gillibrand, Brian Higgins, Nita Lowey, Gregory Meeks and
Steve Israel, along with Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown and Nassau County Executive
Tom Suozzi.

Environmental activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his cousin, Caroline
Kennedy, also are being mentioned.

Paterson faces a difficult balancing act in a state with many powerful
Democratic sects and an executive branch dominated by white men from New York
City.

Gillibrand, Higgins and Brown could help mollify up-staters hoping for
one of their own; Velazquez or Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion Jr. would
give Hispanics a senator; and Meeks would be the only African-American in the
Senate, pending a potential black successor to Obama.

A Marist College poll from two weeks ago showed 43 percent of New
Yorkers wanted Cuomo as the appointee, though that could be in large part
because his name recognition far outpaces members of the state’s House
delegation, who were relegated to single digits.

Whoever is appointed will have to run for the seat in 2010 and again
for a full term in 2012, making the appointee’s ability to campaign a key
criterion.

Depending on the pick, he or she could be in for a primary challenge
and a match-up with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) in 2010. Giuliani
is also thought to be a potential candidate for governor.

Upwardly mobile Democrats could feel pressure to challenge the
appointee in a primary in two years, especially if he or she is relatively
young. The state’s other Senate seat appears locked up for years to come with
58-year-old Sen. Charles Schumer (D) comfortable, and having another Democrat
monopolize the other seat could severely reduce opportunities for federal
promotions in the years to come.

While New York will heat up, Arizona might cool off.

McCain has seen his popularity wane in the state in recent years as
Democrats have made demographic and electoral gains, and he actually trailed
Napolitano in some hypothetical match-ups for 2010.

Napolitano was also term-limited, so the Senate race appeared a logical
choice.

Her exit leaves less attractive but potentially viable options,
including Rep. Gabrielle Giffords and state Attorney General Terry Goddard.

Though Democrats now control five of eight House seats in the state,
Republicans maintain both Senate seats and have now ascended to the governorship,
with Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer moving to the governor’s mansion
to replace Napolitano.

In an e-mail to supporters within minutes of her appointment,
Napolitano alluded to the position in which her move leaves state Democrats for
the coming cycle.

“We reached another milestone by electing four more Democrats to
Congress (in the last six years, and) sending a majority to Washington this
January,” Napolitano said. “And we’ve built a Democratic Party that’s stronger,
smarter and better positioned for victory in 2010 than ever before.”