Sen. Martinez exit ominous for the GOP

A 2010 cycle that looks to contain more of the same for reeling Senate Republicans got off to an ominous start Tuesday, with the unexpected announcement that Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.) will not seek reelection.

It’s not clear whether Martinez’s retirement leaves the GOP better or worse off in Florida — he was an incumbent, but he suffered from poor approval ratings and already faced a treacherous reelection race.

{mosads}Still, the fact that the GOP exodus is continuing just one month after the 2008 election is bad news for Republicans, with their deficits in both chambers appearing insurmountable in the near term and 30 House members and six senators already having retired last cycle.

For a Democratic Party aiming for 60 seats-plus, things are heading in the right direction: Martinez is the second GOP senator to step aside for the 2010 cycle, joining Sen. Sam Brownback (Kan.).

Brownback’s seat appears to be less likely to switch from red to blue, but Democrats have been closely contesting races in other deeply red states. They could make the Kansas race instantly competitive with Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D), who remains a term-limited free agent without an appointment, thus far, to the Obama administration.

The GOP also has to deal with more seats to defend (19) than Democrats (16) and a less appealing target list.

When the 111th Congress begins, four of the five oldest GOP members will be facing reelection. Most of them have already insisted they are running, but questions remain about some of them.

Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.), who is 77, has said he will run and needs $10 million to win in 2010, but he had banked a miniscule $175,000 for the race as of Sept. 30.

Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), at 78, has been adamant that he will run, but he appears set for an arduous primary and general election, both of which he already faced in 2004.

Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), who is 74, has said he plans to seek reelection, but that was the same thing Martinez was saying as late as two weeks ago.

The GOP also could have to deal with otherwise safe seats held by 75-year-old Sens. Bob Bennett (R-Utah) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), should they retire.

In announcing his retirement Tuesday, the 62-year-old Martinez passed on what was set to be one of the most difficult reelection battles in the country.

Though the race might be no less winnable with him out, recruiting for it will be an early challenge for incoming National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (Texas).

A source close to Cornyn said the situation doesn’t change the committee’s outlook on Florida, which the source maintained is a GOP-leaning state with a strong bench.

“That being said, it’s going to be a tough fight, particularly in the current political environment,” the source added.

Florida political insiders say there are two particularly prominent and likely names to run for Martinez’s seat: Alex Sink, the state’s Democratic chief financial officer, and Marco Rubio, the charismatic former GOP state House Speaker.

Elected in 2006, Sink has often been mentioned as a potential candidate for governor or Senate. Currently the highest-ranking Democrat in state government, she has said publicly that she plans to decide her political future “very soon.”

Sources said Tuesday that she was planning to announce that she would seek reelection to her current post on the assumption that both Martinez and Gov. Charlie Crist (R) were staying put, but Martinez’s decision caused her to reconsider and delay.

{mospagebreak}Rubio’s term as Speaker effectively ended with the 2008 legislative session, and he has long been thought to harbor future political aspirations.

Other potential Democratic candidates include Reps. Allen Boyd, Kendrick Meek and Ron Klein. Boyd has been polling in the state, while Klein has amassed a $1.8 million war chest in just one term in the House and is widely known to be upwardly mobile.

{mosads}Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz pulled her name from consideration Tuesday.

On the state level for Democrats, state Sen.-elect Dan Gelber, the outgoing state House minority leader, could mount a serious bid, as could Frank Sanchez, who led Hispanic outreach efforts for President-elect Obama’s campaign, and Buddy Dyer, the mayor of Orlando who was reelected in January. Also mentioned is state Sen. Dave Aronberg.

Other top potential GOP candidates include former state Senate Majority Leader Daniel Webster and state Attorney General Bill McCollum, who ran for Senate in 2000 and said Tuesday that he was “seriously” considering it.

Webster spent 28 years in the state legislature before leaving due to term limits. McCollum lost to Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), 51-46, eight years ago.

Also being mentioned among Republicans are state Senate President Jeff Atwater, former state House Speaker Allan Bense and Rep. Adam Putnam, who has left House leadership at the age of 34 and is rumored to be interested in a statewide position.

Heavyweights like Crist and former Gov. Jeb Bush (R) are both considered long shots. Crist, though popular, is only midway through his first term as governor, and Bush has consistently denied interest in higher office.

Martinez is not terribly well-regarded in his home state, with just a 42 percent approval rating as of a mid-November Quinnipiac poll.

He declined to commit to serving out his term, though he said he expects to. Speculation has been that he might resign early, paving the way for a GOP appointee to serve until 2010 and build up incumbency.

The Cuban immigrant stated that he never wanted to be in public office throughout his career, adding that he thought during his campaign for Orange County mayor in 1998 that he would spend four to eight years in politics.

During his Senate tenure, the former Housing and Urban Development secretary had a brief and unsuccessful stint as co-chairman of the Republican National Committee — a position he vacated after less than a year.

“The next eight years would have been two of candidacy and six of serving,” Martinez said. “I just wanted to go a different direction with my life.”