Chambliss win proves sizeable Obama effect

If Georgia
is any indication, the Obama effect was huge.

In a runoff election with no presidential candidates on
the ballot Tuesday, Peach State voters sent Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) back to the Senate by what looks to be
a resounding margin just four weeks after he led the general election by three
points.

In the runoff, he was ahead of Democratic former state
Rep. Jim Martin 59-41 with 84 percent of precincts in. That margin could narrow
with many precincts in Atlanta
still outstanding, but Chambliss outdid his general election performance in
nearly every major county in the state – including some by large margins.

{mosads}Chambliss’s margin of victory looks to exceed almost all
runoff polling on the race, suggesting that the turnout models used in the polling
overshot Democratic turnout without President-elect Obama on the ballot.

Martin appeared to suffer mightily from a lack of
African-American turnout, which dropped from 30 percent of early votes four
weeks ago to around 20 percent in the runoff.

In Atlanta-based Fulton
County, Chambliss was almost even
with Martin with half the precincts reporting. Martin defeated him nearly
two-to-one in the county in the general election.

In DeKalb County,
another populous county based in Atlanta,
Chambliss increased his take from 21 percent in November to 27 percent this
month, with 84 percent of precincts in.

Many counties mirrored that shift, according to returns
on the Georgia
secretary of state’s website.

Overall in the general election, Chambliss took 49.8
percent of the vote, narrowly missing the majority he needed to avoid a runoff.
Martin was close behind, with 46.8 percent of the vote. Sen. John McCain
(R-Ariz.) took the state 52-47.

Martin was not touted as a top Democratic recruit, though
he had statewide experience as the lieutenant governor nominee two years ago.
In the runoff, it was clear that he was not turning out voters nearly enough to
make the race competitive.

Obama did not appear with Martin, though he did cut ads
for him. Instead, the Democratic nominee wound down the campaign by appearing
with hip-hop artists including Ludacris.

The result could also speak to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s
(R) continuing appeal to her party’s base, which is the focus of runoff turnout
operations. Palin made several stops for Chambliss on Monday, just a month
after she concluded a disappointing Election Day as McCain’s running mate.