GOP knocks off Rep. Jefferson

Nine-term. scandal-plagued Rep. William Jefferson (D-La.) appeared headed to defeat Saturday night as voters in Louisiana cast the final ballots of the 2008 campaign.

With 79 percent of precincts reporting, attorney and activist Anh “Joseph” Cao led Jefferson by a 53 percent to 43.3 percent margin. The Associated Press has called the race for Cao.

{mosads}In the state’s only other federal race decided Saturday, businessman and former Webster Parish Coroner John Fleming (R) held a razor-thin lead over former Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche (D) in the state’s fourth congressional district. With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Fleming led by just 356 votes out of more than 92,500 cast.

As of late Saturday, none of the four candidates had declared victory or admitted defeat.

Even though Jefferson faces sixteen federal indictments on corruption charges, a Republican win would amount to a major upset. Nearly two in three voters in the district, based in and around New Orleans, are African Ameircan, and Sen. John Kerry scored 75 percent of the vote there in 2004.

Despite the long odds, Republicans held out hope that they might be able to swipe the heavily-Democratic seat, especially given what was expected to be very low turnout. In the final days, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spent $58,500 aiding Cao, while Democrats did not respond with their own spending.

A Cao victory would be reminiscent of ex-Rep. Michael Flanagan (R-Ill.) shocking win over House Ways and Means Committee chairman Dan Rostenkowski (D-Ill.) in 1994, when Rostenkowski faced indictments of his own. Two years later, Flanagan lost badly to Democrat Rod Blagojevich.

Cao, should he end up in Washington, would immediately top Democrats’ target list for 2010.

The fourth district, based in the northwest corner of the state around Shreveport, is being vacated by ten-term Rep. Jim McCrery (R). McCrery, Gov. Bobby Jindal and other prominent Republicans had campaigned on Fleming’s behalf.

Carmouche, running in a district in which one in three residents is African American, benefitted from increased black turnout, spurred by a radio advertisement cut by President-elect Obama.

Though both parties depleted their coffers in the November general election, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the NRCC each invested heavily in the district. The DCCC had spent nearly $1.18 million on Carmouche’s behalf, according to the latest available reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, while the NRCC dropped $970,000.

In the primary runoff, delayed by Hurricane Gustav and held on Nov. 4, Carmouche beat an African American candidate by a wide 62%-38% margin. With Obama atop the ticket, Carmouche won more votes — 93,000 — than Fleming and his Republican opponent, who combined to receive about 77,000 votes. Still, without Obama’s coattails, Carmouche will have to hold out hope that late absentee ballots can reduce the gap, which amounts to just 0.38 percent. A recount is likely.

The results appear to give Republicans a second shot of good news in less than a week, following Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss’ relatively easy win in a runoff in that state. Republicans could get one more piece of good news this weekend as elections officials pour over ballots in Ohio’s fifteenth district, where Republican Steve Stivers holds a narrow lead over Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy.

This article was updated at 11:48 p.m.