Jefferson’s shock defeat balm to GOP

Rep. William Jefferson (D-La.), a nine-term lawmaker facing 16 corruption charges, lost reelection in a shocking upset over the weekend, underscoring the unwritten rule that indictments kill the political careers of even the safest-seeming incumbents.

Jefferson’s victorious rival, in a Democratic district, was an unknown and untested Republican, and the result gives the GOP a glimmer of silver lining in a disastrous election cycle.

With 100 percent of precincts reporting, attorney and activist Anh “Joseph” Cao led Jefferson by a 49.6 percent-to-46.8 percent margin.

{mosads}The surprise upset on Saturday by Cao, a Vietnamese immigrant who came to America after the 1975 fall of Saigon, adds to Republican relief following Sen. Saxby Chambliss’s easier-than-expected reelection victory in Georgia on Tuesday. Republicans can claim some measure of momentum even after losing at least 20 seats in the House and seven in the Senate.

Jefferson’s loss solves what had become a thorny problem for Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who angered members of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) in May 2006 when she called on Jefferson to step down from his post on the House Ways and Means Committee.

As Pelosi comes under pressure from outside groups who question whether Ways and Means Chairman Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) should step down from that post as he weathers his own ethical storm, Jefferson’s departure will alleviate at least some tension between the Speaker’s office and the CBC.

The tightrope Pelosi has had to walk comes after two election cycles in which Democrats have made Republican ethics a key issue. While Democrats spotlighted the ethical problems of Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham (R-Calif.), Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) and convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff, many Republicans cried foul over the Democratic Party’s refusal to deal with its own troubled members, including Jefferson and Rangel.

Despite the heavy Democratic bent of the 2nd District, which includes New Orleans and part of neighboring Jefferson Parish — its boundaries were drawn to give African-Americans an advantage — Republicans spent late money on a phone and mail program aimed at swiping Jefferson’s seat. In the final days, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spent $58,500 aiding Cao.

Democrats, many of whom had privately hoped Jefferson would lose the primary earlier this year, did not respond with money of their own. Jefferson was forced into runoffs in both 2006 and 2008, though he won surprising victories both times.

Jefferson likely was hurt by extremely low turnout and the fact that Hurricane Gustav postponed Election Day, which otherwise would have been held on the same day an African-American presidential candidate topped the Democratic ticket.

Even though Jefferson faces 16 federal indictments on corruption charges, Cao’s win amounts to a major upset. Nearly two in three voters in the district are black, and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) scored 75 percent of the vote there in 2004. Cao will represent a more heavily Democratic seat than any other Republican member of Congress.

But that puts the 41-year-old attorney in a tenuous position even before he takes office. Cao’s win is reminiscent of ex-Rep. Michael Patrick Flanagan’s (R-Ill.), who shocked Rep. Dan Rostenkowski (D-Ill.) in 1994, when the powerful Democrat faced federal indictments of his own. As Republicans swept to power nationwide, Flanagan beat Rostenkowski in his downtown Chicago district by a 54 percent-to-46 percent margin.

Two years later, the district reverted to its traditional Democratic pattern, and Flanagan lost to Rod Blagojevich (D), who has since gone on to become governor, by a wide amount. Cao, just hours after beating Jefferson, is already atop Democrats’ target list for 2010.

Cao’s previous electoral experience consists of a bid for an open state House seat last year, where he came in fifth out of six candidates. Now he will be the first Vietnamese-American in Congress.

In the state’s only other federal race decided over the weekend, businessman and former Webster Parish Coroner John Fleming (R) held a razor-thin lead over former Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche (D) in the state’s 4th congressional district. With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Fleming led by just 356 votes out of more than 92,500 cast.

The 4th district, based in the northwest corner of the state around Shreveport, is being vacated by 10-term Rep. Jim McCrery (R). McCrery, Gov. Bobby Jindal and other prominent Republicans had campaigned on Fleming’s behalf.
Carmouche, running in a district in which one in three residents is African-American, benefited from increased black turnout, spurred by a radio advertisement cut by President-elect Obama, but it may not prove enough.

Though both parties depleted their coffers in the November general election, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the NRCC each invested heavily in the district. The DCCC had spent nearly $1.18 million on Carmouche’s behalf, according to the latest available reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, while the NRCC dropped $970,000.

In the primary runoff held on Nov. 4, Carmouche beat an African-American candidate by a wide 62 percent-38 percent margin. With Obama atop the ticket that day, Carmouche won more votes — 93,000 — than Fleming and his Republican opponent, who combined to receive about 77,000 votes. Still, without Obama’s coattails, Carmouche will have to hold out hope that late absentee ballots can reduce the gap, which amounts to just 0.38 percent. A recount is likely.

Republicans could get one more piece of good news this weekend as elections officials pore over ballots in Ohio’s 15th district, where Republican Steve Stivers holds a narrow lead over Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy.