Jackson now unlikely Obama replacement

Most political watchers in Illinois agree that Rep. Jesse
Jackson Jr. (D), once a leading candidate to succeed President-elect Obama in
the Senate, is now a long shot to fill the seat.

Jackson, believed to be “Senate Candidate 5” in a
criminal complaint filed against Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), did not
help his own cause by holding a bizarre press conference on Capitol Hill
Wednesday during which he left more questions unanswered than answered.

{mosads}In the complaint, Blagojevich said he might be able to
“get some [money] up front, maybe,” from Senate Candidate 5 in exchange for
appointing him to Obama’s seat. Later, an associate of the same candidate
purportedly approached Blagojevich with an offer of significant campaign contributions
in return for naming the candidate to the Senate seat.

Though he denounced what he called “pay-to-play politics”
and denied involvement in any quid pro quo, Jackson said he had hired a lawyer
in advance of conversations he is expected to have with the U.S. Attorney’s
office. Jackson said the U.S. Attorney’s office told him he is not a target of
the investigation, but on advice of counsel he refused to answer reporters’
questions.

“I look forward to cooperating with the hardworking men
and women of the United States Attorney’s Office and the Justice Department. I
look forward to sitting down with them and cooperating fully and completely
under this federal investigation,” Jackson said.

To political observers, the press conference marked the
end of Jackson’s hopes of securing Obama’s seat.

“Like anybody who’s ever been named in an indictment,
there’s an implication in that that’s going to be awfully hard to overcome,”
said Terry Walsh, a Democratic consultant with The Strategy Group. 

Jackson “is going to have a hard time.”

To Fred Lebed, a Democratic strategist with a long
history in Chicago and Cook County politics, it was Jackson’s refusal to answer
questions that rang of impending trouble.

“There’s too many unanswered questions,” he said. “There
was something missing, and it was Q and A.”

Others, like public relations specialist Philip Molfese,
think Jackson will forgo any attempt to win Obama’s Senate seat, whether by
special election or appointment.

“Congressman Jackson has a lot on his plate right now. I
don’t think he enters the Senate race,” Molfese said.

Jackson has not removed his name from consideration. In
the days leading up to Blagojevich’s arrest, he lobbied hard for the spot.

“Somewhere along the way, over the last two and a half
years, I got the idea that if a skinny kid with a funny name could be president
of the United States, that a short kid with a somewhat controversial but
certainly a high-profile name could be a senator from Illinois,” Jackson said
at the press conference. “I entered this process with that expectation, and I
hope that the people of the state of Illinois and the people of our country
will measure me based upon the content of my character.”

However, some longtime hands in the world of Illinois
politics are waiting and watching, unwilling to pronounce Jackson’s short-term
Senate aspirations extinct.

Even allies of Jackson’s rivals for the vacant Senate
seat are not calling him dead yet.

While Evan McKenzie, a professor of political science at
the University of Illinois at Chicago, said the episode “hurts him
tremendously,” he added that the lawmaker’s best chance to succeed Obama as the
junior senator from Illinois, a job he has openly pursued, would be if state
officials scheduled a special election.

McKenzie said it is unlikely that Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn (D)
would pick Jackson because of his connection to Chicago politics, a connection
that was underscored by the discussion of his name in tape-recorded
conversations between Blagojevich and his aides.

Unless the state legislature passes a law setting up a
special election, Quinn would gain the power to select Obama’s successor once
Blagojevich leaves office because of resignation or impeachment.  

McKenzie said a special election would give Jackson a
chance to make his case to voters, and a poll released by Jackson earlier this
year shows that he had the highest name identification among candidates
interested in the seat.

William Brandt Jr., a Democratic activist, strategist,
and fundraiser who has been involved in Chicago politics for three decades,
said he would not write Jackson off.

Brandt said people would make a mistake if they rush to
judgment based on the headlines from a “48-hour or 72-hour news cycle.”

“Jesse’s had a real productive career in Illinois,” said
Brandt. “I think the public is going to wait” before making a judgment.

Brandt noted that Valerie Jarrett, named a senior White
House adviser in the Obama administration, was also mentioned in the complaint
and that she is unlikely to suffer damage to her reputation.

A close ally to a rival of Jackson’s said his mention in
the criminal complaint will “complicate” his Senate aspirations. But the
Illinois insider stopped short of declaring Jackson out of the running for the
Senate.

“It depends how everything unfolds,” said the source.
“People are still trying to sort things out.”

The source said if Jackson is not found to have done
anything improper, his Senate hopes may not be at all compromised.