Analysis: No clear path for Kennedy

Caroline Kennedy has garnered heavy media attention in her bid to fill Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D-N.Y.) Senate seat, but the scion of America’s best-known political family has anything but a clear path to Washington.

Kennedy, the daughter of the late President Kennedy and an ally of President-elect Obama, will likely compete with a rising star with one of the best last names in New York politics and a slew of other potential candidates ready to make their case to Gov. David Paterson.

{mosads}New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, the son of Gov. Mario Cuomo, is said to be interested in the job and has his own allies quietly lobbying for his appointment. Complicating the rivalry for the seat is a personal tension between families derived from Cuomo’s very public divorce from Kennedy’s cousin.

Paterson could avoid stepping between the two powerful families by appointing someone else. Reps. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.), Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) are said to be on Paterson’s short list, as is Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown (D).

Several Empire State Democrats looking to take Kennedy down a peg and elevate their own candidacies have openly questioned her credentials of late. Some go so far as to suggest that appointing Kennedy to the Senate could even give Republicans a better shot at capturing the seat in two years.

On CBS’s “Face the Nation” this weekend, Rep. Gary Ackerman (D-N.Y.) compared Kennedy’s recent trip to upstate New York with Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s (R) rollout as the GOP vice presidential nominee. Former Rep. Geraldine Ferraro (D-N.Y.) wrote Paterson urging him not to appoint Kennedy to the seat.

Both are seen as allies of Maloney, the nine-term Manhattan congresswoman who, on a radio station Monday morning, defended Ackerman as a champion of women’s rights. Ackerman’s complaints about Kennedy had led to charges he was being sexist.

Israel accrued hours of personal time over the weekend on a trip to Iraq with Paterson, who has sole authority over who will get Clinton’s seat. The Long Island congressman has been to the war zone several times, and aides say the governor, who wanted to make his first trip to the country, has been working on a trip with Israel and Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-N.Y.) since at least October.

Democrats critical of Kennedy have questioned her ability as a campaigner. Cuomo has run and won statewide races; Israel, Maloney, Gillibrand and Brown all know what a campaign entails. Facing the prospect of a tough battle in two years, potentially against Rep. Pete King (R-N.Y.), some Democrats wonder whether Kennedy would react well to the pressures of a Senate campaign.

Kennedy’s public campaign for the seat has also drawn criticism as far too public for what is seen as an insider’s run. Though several candidates are actively seeking the appointment, none have held the sort of barnstorming events Kennedy has, especially during her trip upstate last week.

But Kennedy has promising allies, including several newspapers that have editorialized for her selection. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has reportedly called Paterson to urge him to pick Kennedy. And though Kennedy was a prominent Obama backer in the presidential primaries, Clinton herself reportedly has told allies not to stand in Kennedy’s way.

Those following the race have taken Cuomo’s unusual silence about the contest as evidence of his interest in the seat. Cuomo, son of former Gov. Mario Cuomo and President Clinton’s secretary of Housing and Urban Development, would bring a wealth of experience in both New York and Washington, backers say. The one-term attorney general has also expressed interest in running for the governor’s mansion, and an appointment by Paterson would eliminate a potential rival in 2010.

House Democrats have been impressed by Gillibrand’s ability to raise money and to win in a district that has historically leaned Republican. Still, with just two elections under her belt, Gillibrand may be young enough to survive being passed over and may consider a statewide run of her own in the future.

Brown is the most prominent African-American candidate still being widely mentioned for the job. Being from upstate is a positive for some Democrats, but when faced with a Republican opponent based closer to New York City — as King is — upstate Democrats have had less success. On the job for just three years, Brown is also young enough for Paterson to consider delaying his ascension.

Clinton has not said definitively when she will resign her Senate seat, though she has indicated she will hold the seat until confirmed as secretary of State.