Reapportionment to benefit Sun Belt

The country’s
population center continues to shift south, according to new data from the U.S.
Census Bureau, and congressional districts will follow after the 2012
reapportionment.

The new figures
suggest that Texas will be the big winner following the nationwide census in
2010 and the attending decennial reapportionment process. The Lone Star State,
fueled by explosive growth in its Hispanic population and an influx of
transplants from other states, is projected to pick up as many as three congressional
seats, according to a report compiled by Election Data Services, Inc.

{mosads}Five other
states, all in the Sun Belt, are projected to gain one House seat each,
including Utah, Arizona, Nevada, Florida and Georgia. Southern and Western
states have continuously grown at a much faster pace than those in the Midwest,
Rust Belt and Northeast.

States set to
lose a seat are largely in the industrial swath of the country, areas that have
traditionally lost seats over the last several reapportionments. Michigan,
Minnesota, New York, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania have all lost seats in
recent population estimates. New Jersey and Iowa, both beset by economies that
have grown slower than other states in the past decade, are also projected to
lose a seat.

Louisiana, which
lost thousands of residents in the aftermaths of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita,
is the only state south of the Mason-Dixon Line projected to lose a member of
Congress.

Recent trends
have caused census-watchers to reassess projections from earlier this decade.
Population growth rates have slowed considerably in Texas and Arizona, enough
so that estimators have projected each will win one fewer seat after 2012 than
many had expected.

Population growth
had increased sufficiently in both Ohio and Missouri to save seats in those
states; the Buckeye State was expected to lose two seats in four years, while
Show-Me Staters had been slated to drop one of their nine seats.

EDS projections
suggest population movements could still cause shifts before census-takers hit
the streets in 2010. Long-term trends beginning in 2000 suggest that states in
the Pacific Northwest — Oregon and Washington — are just a few thousand new
residents away from winning new seats, while South Carolina would win a seventh
seat in Congress.

Shorter-term
trends, though, show population growth in the Upper Midwest and Northeast
rebounding slightly, while the tremendous growth in the Sun Belt and west of
the Rocky Mountains eased slightly.

For the first
time in eighty years, California did not gain enough population to win a new
seat in reapportionment. Following the 1930 census, California gained nine
seats to reach 20. The Golden State has picked up seats every decade ever
since, peaking after the 2000 census at 53 seats.